HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP):
Bush: 48.0%(+0.4 from yesterday)
Kerry: 47.7%(+0.3% from yesterday)
Some additional news from Zogby:
"Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004."
I have been very critical of modern music the past year or so for not being as socially critical as it could be, especially hip-hop music. Well, and I never thought I'd say this, but tonight Eminem stepped up to the political plate and hit one out of the park.
Tonight on Saturday Night Live, Eminem just wiped the floor with Bush. I had heard a lot about his song, "Mosh", but I had no idea it would be so effective. I was really very moved. Eminem is truly the real thing. Asontishing! I had chills. He really hit every note right and hit it hard.
Thank you, Eminem for giving hip-hop some real credibility. Tonight was the first night I really felt like hip-hop was culturally significant. Again, Astonishing.
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP):
Bush: 47.6%(-1.0 from yesterday)
Kerry: 47.4%(+0.5% from yesterday)
This is the closest the HGS average has been since I started the poll average. If it stays within a point either way, then I am sure Kerry will win. This could be a sign that the undecideds are breaking for Kerry.
So the republicans think Osama Bin Laden free and looking healthy is a good thing. This from the NY Daily News:
"A senior GOP strategist added, 'anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush.'"He called it 'a little gift,' saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection."
When I first heard about the Bin Laden tape my first inclination was to panic. I thought that this news would hand the election to Bush. However, after seeing the video, hearing the statements by Bush and Kerry, and seeing the media's reaction, I think that it is a non-issue in the election.The only way that it becomes an issue is if the media decides to make it an issue. There are reasons why this hurts and helps both campaigns. It helps both campaigns with their base and it hurts both of them by widening the partisan divide. However, as far as undecideds are concerned, they will hardly even notice the tape. The undecideds that were leaning Bush will lean harder towards Bush. The voters that were leaning Kerry will lean further into Kerry.
Besides, it is just a tape. Some of us political junkies see this and think it is nuclear, but it really is only a small blurb in the great scheme of the campaign. As I said, the only way this becomes significant is if the media places significance upon it. Because people will often come to the conclusion the media gives them.
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP):
Bush: 48.6%(Unchanged from yesterday)
Kerry: 46.9%(-0.1% from yesterday)
Just to let you know, though I have taken the TIPP daily tracking poll out of the average, mostly because of its volatility, is is showing a tie today. It had Bush up by 8 just four days ago. So, it is still certainly volatile. However, yesterday's and today's poll over at TIPP seem to be more in line with the other daily polls. I will still keep TIPP out of the average, but feel free to visit their site and look at the numbers.
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP):
Bush: 48.6%(+0.3 from yesterday)
Kerry: 47.0%(-1.0% from yesterday)
Do you want to know what Bush thinks of the American public? Well, here you go.
It looks like CBS/NYT is so concerned that they might be labelled "liberal" media that they are suppressing good news for Kerry. This from MyDD:
"The word I hear is that NYT/CBS are not going to release their latest FL survey, because it shows Kerry up by 4 points. Apparently, they [CBS & NYT's] think that is an implausible result, so they are suppressing it. Of course, it's not implausible at all. And imagine the reverse: would they have suppressed a poll showing Bush up 4?"
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, andABC/WP):
Bush: 48.3%(Unchanged from yesterday)
Kerry: 48.0%(+0.1% from yesterday)
I am putting up my daily average early today because I will be out of town when the new ABC/WP poll comes out at 5. So, I am using yesterday's ABC/WP poll in the average. I will update the new average at around 10 this evening, eatern standard time.
There has been a lot of talk about the "Big 3" states in this election: Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The conventional wisdom has been that the candidate who wins two of the three will be president. Well, here are new polls in all three states:
Survey USA State Polls
Ohio
Kerry 50%
Bush 48%Florida
Kerry 50%
Bush 47%Pennsylvania
Kerry 53%
Bush 45%
It is not only important that Kerry is up in all three states. It is also important to look at the numbers. Kerry is at 50 or above in all the polls. Bush is at 48 or below in all the polls. Traditionally an incumbent's poll numbers don't change on election day. The undecideds choose the challenger 2 to 1. So, it looks like Kerry might carry all three states.
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP):
Bush: 48.3%(+0.8 from yesterday)
Kerry: 47.9%(+0.4% from yesterday)
I expect tomorrow's Zogby poll will be moving towards Kerry. Zogby has had a Bush lead for several days because of a huge Bush sample on Saturday that gave him a 7 point bump that day. Tomorrow will be the first day without figuring in the result's of Saturday's bump.
The race is still extremely close today, but I think it is clear that the numbers are moving towards Kerry. I also think we will be seeing further movement as people start to react to missing explosives in Iraq, the 20,000 troop increase in Iraq, and the additional 70 billion dollars for the war. So, stay tuned.
Even the conservative blogger Andrew Sullivan thinks so:
"Now remember how unprecedentedly copious the new registrations have been in so many states. I have to say that I'd be more surprised now by a Bush victory than a Kerry defeat."
The Washington Post is reporting that Bush will be asking for an additional 70 Billion dollars from the American taxpayers to clean up his mess in Iraq. Here is the opening:
"The Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan early next year, pushing total war costs close to $225 billion since the invasion of Iraq early last year, Pentagon and congressional officials said yesterday."
My Electoral Prediction (270 needed to win.)
Kerry: 301
Bush: 231
I feel pretty confident about this prediction right now. I certainly feel confident that Kerry will win the election. The question is by how much.
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP):
Bush: 47.5%(-0.9 from yesterday)
Kerry: 47.5%(+1.5% from yesterday)
There is major shifts happening in the electorate. I believe that we are seeing some of the undecideds break towards Kerry, and we are also seeing the Democratic base widening in their support for Kerry. I think that we will also see this reflected in state polls throughout the week.
I've removed TIPP tracking polls from the average. They have proven to be far too untrustworthy for me to continue considering its results.
Also, be on the lookout for Zogby's state polls int he coming days, they have been skewing way to the right, in major opposition to all other state polling. I usually trust Zogby, but some of his state polling lately has seemed suspect.
Also, Gallup is releasing another poll today. So, heads up.
The NY Times is breaking a story that reveals that the U.S. let looters get their hands on 380(!) tons of extremely powerful explosives. These are some of the same explosives that have been killing our troops and innocent Iraqis all these months. These explosives were under lock and key before the war by the International community, and the IAEA knew where they were, what they were, and even warned the U.S. government about the need to protect them. We did nothing to protect this stockpile from the looters. It is just one more example of the gross incompetence of this administration, and it is costing us even more lives.
Here is an excerpt from the piece just to get you started:
"The Iraqi interim government has warned the United States and international nuclear inspectors that nearly 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives - used to demolish buildings, produce missile warheads and detonate nuclear weapons - are missing from one of Iraq's most sensitive former military installations."The huge facility, called Al Qaqaa, was supposed to be under American military control but is now a no-man's land, still picked over by looters as recently as Sunday. United Nations weapons inspectors had monitored the explosives for many years, but White House and Pentagon officials acknowledge that the explosives vanished after the American invasion last year.
"The White House said President Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, was informed within the past month that the explosives were missing. It is unclear whether President Bush was informed. American officials have never publicly announced the disappearance, but beginning last week they answered questions about it posed by The New York Times and the CBS News program '60 Minutes.'"
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, ABC/WP, and TIPP Daily Polls):
Bush: 48.4%(+0.1 from yesterday)
Kerry: 46.0%(+0.6% from yesterday)
Normally, I wouldn't go into the individual poll numbers that make up the daily average, but today it seems particularly important to explain a possible anomoly. The TIPP poll today has Bush up by six. Zogby has Bush up by 2. ABC/Washington Post has Bush up 1, and the Rasmussen poll shows a tie. The average is thrown off by the TIPP poll, which unlike all the other polls show Bush increasing his lead instead of the race tightening. We'll have to wait a couple of days to see if the TIPP poll corrects itself.
The from the Des Moines Register:
"About half of Americans have lost confidence in President Bush, yet many hang back from embracing the alternative. That's unfortunate, because Senator John F. Kerry is a wise and decent man who has the makings of a fine president."Still, there's little wonder that voters have doubts. Most of what they think they know about the senator comes from a masterful job of "defining the opposition" carried out by the Bush campaign and its surrogates before most people got a chance to know the real Kerry."
This from the Guardian, a London paper:
"Throughout the debate, John Kerry, for his part, looks and sounds a bit like a haunted tree. But at least he's not a lying, sniggering, drink-driving, selfish, reckless, ignorant, dangerous, backward, drooling, twitching, blinking, mouse-faced little cheat. And besides, in a fight between a tree and a bush, I know who I'd favour.
"On November 2, the entire civilised world will be praying, praying Bush loses. And Sod's law dictates he'll probably win, thereby disproving the existence of God once and for all. The world will endure four more years of idiocy, arrogance and unwarranted bloodshed, with no benevolent deity to watch over and save us. John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr - where are you now that we need you?"
This from Editor & Publisher:
"Meanwhile, E&P has learned from several sources at the Cleveland Plain Dealer that the paper's nine-person editorial board decided earlier this week that it wanted to endorse Kerry but Publisher Alex Machaskee, who has final say, has decided on Bush. The paper backed Bush in 2000."
HGS Poll of Polls (Includes the 10 Most Recent Polls, as listed by pollingreport.com.):
Bush: 48.3%(+1.7%)
Kerry: 46.6%
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, ABC/WP, and TIPP Daily Polls):
Bush: 48.3%(No Change from yesterday)
Kerry: 45.4%(-0.3% from yesterday)
This from the Meta-Analysis site:
"Under today's polling conditions, four states are clearly in serious contention: Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin To a lesser extent so are NV, WV, and some others. Depending on undecideds/turnout/bias, states come into or go out of play, but in those situations Kerry or Bush typically win the Electoral College by a more comfortable margin. So let's concentrate on this near-tie condition. After assigning other states as indicated by polls (PA and MI to Kerry, MO to Bush, and so on) and playing with combinations, several patterns emerge."First - if Kerry wins Florida, the election is over - he wins. Kerry can also win by taking Ohio plus one of the smaller states. In the other direction, Bush must win not only Florida, but also either Ohio or all of the smaller states. In light of these facts, the Saletan piece indicates that the Bush campaign's actions may amount to a defensive move - otherwise why give up on Ohio?
"It's also possible to identify states that look moderately solid, but might flip if the combination of undecided/turnout/bias factors adds up. This is interesting because this shift is likely to be similar across states. Therefore these states can act as an early-warning system for a surprising election night. For instance, Arkansas, North Carolina and Virginia currently look like Bush states, and Maine looks like a Kerry state. If a surprise occurs in any of these states, this might presage a significant offset between decided-voter polls and the real outcome."
This from the Tampa Tribune on the number of registered voters in Florida:
"The raw numbers released by Hood's office showed 4.3 million Democrats, 3.9 million Republicans and 1.9 million voters with no party affiliation."Including minor party registrants, the state has 10.3 million registered voters. About 8.8 million voters were registered for the 2000 presidential election."
HGS Poll of Polls (Includes the 10 Most Recent Polls, as listed by pollingreport.com.):
Bush: 48.3%(+1.9%)
Kerry: 46.4%
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, ABC/WP, and TIPP Daily Polls):
Bush: 48.3%(-0.3% from yesterday)
Kerry: 45.7%(+0.4% from yesterday)
This from Atrios, taken from an interview Bush gave to Univision yesterday:
"I would tell them the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the war against those who caused the deaths on 9/11 is necessary."
Electoral-Vote.com's numbers:
Kerry: 264
Bush: 264
States too close to call: Minnesota
Electoral-Vote.com's predicted numbers:
Kerry: 294
Bush: 244
2.004.com's numbers:
Kerry: 271
Bush: 257
States too close to call: Wisconsin
The Meta-Anaysis of State Polls gives John Kerry a 39% chance of winning the race today.
Their electoral numbers:
Kerry: 264
Bush: 274
The Meta-Analysis predicted electoral numbers
Kerry: 307
Bush: 241
The Pollkatz predicted electoral numbers
Kerry: 287
Bush: 251
In other words, its close today, but no one is predicting that it will still be close on election night.
According to Atrios there are problems already appearing in Ohio. This from candidate Mitakides:
"The voter problems have already begun, and Republicans are apparently taking this race very seriously. Absentee ballots are being mailed with the wrong Congressional race on them… leaving my race out of the ballot. The ballots are being mailed to the City of Trotwood and is heavily Democratic and not being on the ballot here is devastating. Just as important, if these are irregular ballots, it will give Ken Blackwell a reason to throw them out… affecting Kerry’s race, too. We don’t know how many went out."
"Someone in Columbus Ohio seems to be calling voters, impersonating an employee from the local election board, and telling folks that the location of their precincts has been changed. The recipients of the calls seem to be disproportionately elderly."This one's right out of the Karl Rove playbook."
This from the Boston Globe:
"This weekend -- less than two weeks before the election, typically a time for frenzied barnstorming -- Bush is planning to spend two consecutive nights far from any battleground, at his ranch in Crawford, Texas."
This from the Polical Wire:
"A University of Maryland poll found President Bush's supporters 'are less knowledgeable about the president's foreign policy positions and are more likely to be mistaken about factual issues in world affairs than voters who back' Sen. John Kerry."
This from Slate today:
"Bush seems to have forgotten about Ohio, too. 'The Bush campaign is confident it can win the state; as if to prove its comfort level, today marks 14 days since the Republican president last set foot in Ohio,' Cleveland's Plain Dealer wrote this past Saturday. By the time Bush arrives in Canton tomorrow, he'll have gone 19 days without campaigning in the Buckeye State. His last stop here was in Cuyahoga Falls on Oct. 2."
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, ABC/WP, and TIPP Daily Polls):
Bush: 48.6%(+.8% from yesterday)
Kerry: 45.3%(-1.2% from yesterday)
However, before you fret over these numbers, a new AP/Ipsos poll out today has Kerry up 3 points. Also, I am certain that the ABC/Washington Post's poll is inflated today. It has Bush up by 6 points today. That is just absurd. Zogby has Bush up by 1.
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average
(Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, ABC/WP, and TIPP Daily Polls):
Bush: 47.8%(-.2% from yesterday)
Kerry: 46.5%(+.6% from yesterday)
Further evidence that Bush is way out of touch with reality. This is what Pat Robertson said yesterday:
"And I warned him about this war. I had deep misgivings about this war, deep misgivings. And I was trying to say, 'Mr. President, you had better prepare the American people for casualties.' "Robertson said the president then told him, "Oh, no, we're not going to have any casualties."
This is what you get when your country is run by an administration that is riddled with incompetence:
"Many experts say the [flu shot]shortage will lead to a greater number of flu-related deaths.
It is official, Ashcroft is a nut job. This from the NY Times:
"Attorney General John Ashcroft suggested in a speech before the United Sates Chamber of Commerce in Washington that Providence was partly responsible for the United States' freedom from another attack since Sept. 11, 2001."'For three years, our nation has been blessed,' Mr. Ashcroft said. 'But the hand of Providence has been assisted by the dedicated men and women of the Department of Justice. In three years, we have compiled a record of achievement that is impressive by peacetime standards.'"
The HGS Poll of Polls (Includes the last 11 Polls. Get a list here.):
Bush: 48.7%(+3.0%)
Kerry: 45.7%
After you take out the three inflated polls(Faux News, Gallup, and Newsweek) then it is actually much closer.
Sorry about all the poll numbers lately, but it is crunch time in this election.
NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll:
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 1%
Remember a tied electorate favors the challenger. This poll is welcome news for the Kerry/Edwards camp. It is probably causing some nervousness among the Bushies. Although, most polls do still have Bush slightly ahead.
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average (Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, ABC/WP, and TIPP Daily Polls):
Bush: 48.0%(+2.1%)
Kerry: 45.9%
I just added the TIPP Online tracking poll today. So, now I am averaging the results of four daily tracking polls.
This is from Slate (Love the Bush picture):
Electoral-Vote.com's numbers:
Kerry: 284
Bush: 247
2.004.com's numbers:
Kerry: 289
Bush: 232
The Meta-Anaysis of State Polls gives John Kerry a 92% chance of winning the race today.
Their electoral numbers:
Kerry: 311
Bush: 227
Also, remember how important the president's approval ratings are to his re-election hopes. If he drops below 46, he loses. Anything higher than 53, Kerry wins.
The latest CBS/NYT poll shows Bush's job approval at 44%. Ouch!
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average
(Average of Zogby, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP Daily Polls):
Bush: 47.5%(+1.1%)
Kerry: 46.4%
Now, remember that yesterday's average had Bush up by 2.7%. So, this is an interesting bounce for Kerry. It doesn't get too much closer than this. If the polls stay this close then that is extremely good news for Kerry. If I were the Bush folks I would be wondering why this small bump is taking place. The race is a dead heat in both the Rasmussen and Zogby daily polls. The ABC/WP poll has Bush up by 3; he was up 4 yesterday.
Bob Herbert hits the nail on the head once again:
"The president and his apologists never understood what they were getting into in Iraq. What is unmistakable now is that Americans will never be willing to commit the overwhelming numbers of troops and spend the hundreds of billions of additional dollars necessary to have even a hope of bringing long-term stability to Iraq."This is a war that never made sense and now we are seeing - from the troops on the ground, from our allies overseas and increasingly from the population here at home - the inevitable reluctance to forge ahead with the madness.
"The president likes to say he made exactly the right decision on Iraq. Each new death of a soldier or a civilian, each child who loses a parent to the carnage, each healthy body that is broken or burned in this war that didn't have to happen, is a reminder of how horribly wrong he was."
I have gotten so frustrated with the volatility and sheer number of polls coming out lately. So, I have decided to create my own daily poll. I am going to be putting together a daily poll that averages the numbers of the three main daily tracking polls (Rasmussen, Zogby, and ABC/WP). So, here it is:
HGS Daily Tracking Poll Average:
Bush: 48.2% (+2.7%)
Kerry: 45.5%
My tipping point on this poll is 3 points. If either candidate exceeds a 3 point edge in this daily average then I believe that candidate will win the election. Right now Bush is extremely close to being 3 points up, but he still has some work to do. Kerry, obviously, has even more work to do.
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll (likely voters):
Bush: 52%
Kerry: 44%
(Among registered voters Bush leads Kerry 49% to 46%.)
Democracy Corps Survey:
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 46%.
This from EDM about the differences in these two polls:
"Remember, in 2000, Democracy Corps' final poll, released five days before the election, was right on the money. In fact, every D.C. poll in the final weeks of the 2000 campaign showed the race to be very, very close.Remember, a Gallup poll released on October 26, 2000, less than two weeks before the election, had George Bush leading Al Gore by 13 points! Numerous Gallup polls during the final weeks of the 2000 campaign had Bush with ludicrously large leads.
And this time, Gallup has Bush ahead by 8 among likely voters but by 3 among registered voters. This is just too large a gap between registered and likely voters."
Update:
ABC/WP Tracking Poll:
Bush: 50%
Kerry: 46%
Nader: 2%
This is not good news for Kerry. This is showing a further bump for Bush.
Zogby Tracking Poll:
Bush: 46%
Kerry: 44%
Nader: 1%
And this from John Zogby:
"The third debate is now registering among voters and Kerry had a good day, leading by two points today alone. He now is behind by only two overall."
Rasmussen Tracking Poll:
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 46%
Both of these polls have tightened since yesterday. So, perhaps there is a Kerry post-debate bump appearing in the numbers.
I would agree with both of these numbers. In the coming days polls will probably show anywhere from a 3-point Bush lead to a 3-point Kerry lead. I think Zogby is correct that the coming days will show that Kerry is extremely close to Bush, and this is a direct result of the debates sinking in. However, all this depends on the so-called Mary Cheney factor, which is total fiction, but does it resonate with the public and hamper Kerry's momentum?
Also, we might be seeing the beginnings of a real Nader factor. Nader support jumped yesterday in the WP/ABC tracking poll from 1% to 3%. We'll see if that maintains in the coming days. If it does that will be a serious problem for Kerry.
By the way, according to Bob Shrum, there is a Democracy Corps poll that has Kerry up by several points. However, I have been unable to find the poll. As soon as I can find it I will post the results.
The New York Times will endorse John Kerry for president in tomorrow morning's edition. It really is a must-read editorial. Here is an excerpt of why they are endorsing Kerry:
"We have been impressed with Mr. Kerry's wide knowledge and clear thinking - something that became more apparent once he was reined in by that two-minute debate light. He is blessedly willing to re-evaluate decisions when conditions change. And while Mr. Kerry's service in Vietnam was first over-promoted and then over-pilloried, his entire life has been devoted to public service, from the war to a series of elected offices. He strikes us, above all, as a man with a strong moral core."
"There is no denying that this race is mainly about Mr. Bush's disastrous tenure. Nearly four years ago, after the Supreme Court awarded him the presidency, Mr. Bush came into office amid popular expectation that he would acknowledge his lack of a mandate by sticking close to the center. Instead, he turned the government over to the radical right."
It has been difficult for democrats to find good news in the polls the past few days. I haven't seen a major poll that shows Kerry leading. The race is certainly tight, but all the daily tracking polls show Bush trending upwards. Part of the reason for this could be that polls favor republicans on the weekends, or at least so i've heard. Remember that most the tracking polls do their polling in the evening. So, the polls that were tracked for today show friday night's numbers. So, if the democrats are looking for good news, well, I would say that you will have to wait until the middle of next week, and even then I am not so sure that Kerry will be ahead, but I'm not so sure he has to be ahead in the polls, but apparently neither does Karl Rove. Check this out from the EDM:
"I have friend who is a co-chair of the Bush Cheney campaign. Rove believes that Bush needs to have a 4 point lead going into the last weekend to win given the undecideds that will break againt the president."
RCP Average(Poll of Polls):
Bush: 48.1% (+1.7%)
Kerry: 46.4%
Either Bush made an honest mistake, or we just found the Freudian slip of the election:
"Bush sought to counter suggestions that there will be a military draft if he's re-elected, but the president almost blew his line.He said that, after a debate with Kerry, 'I made it very plain. We will not have an all-volunteer army.' The crowd fell silent. 'WE WILL have an all-volunteer army,' Bush said, quickly catching himself. 'Let me restate that. We will not have a draft.'"
So, which is it?
How far will the media take this Mary Cheney nonsense. Well, here is the most ridiculous thing i've seen about it so far from Phil Boas at the Arizona Central:
"I think the press room probably gasped because (forgive my cheap and tawdry simile) it was a little like that second plane hitting the Twin Towers. The first could have been an accident. The second was a calculated attack."
The so-called liberal media myth has been exposed. It is clear that this assertion is completely without merit, and it has been proven apparent again and again in this election. We have learned that the conservatives are the only group that have a clear media bias with Fox News and Right-Wing radio. The other national news organizations are getting beat by Fox News and they think the only way to woo the viewers away from Fox is too skew rightward. The saturation of the swift boat ads were a very good example of this, but the newest example is the false outrage over the "controversy" over John Kerry mentioning that Mary Cheney is a lesbian. I am dumbfounded that the media is playing this nonsense up. I would think that the only way this is news is if Mary Cheney weren't a lesbian, or if she were still in the closet. Otherwise this is a non-story, and it should be treated as such. To assert, as the Cheney's have that Kerry's utterance is evidence that he is a "bad man" is moronic to the highest degree.
I think the media needs to take some advice from William Saleton when it comes to covering a presidential election:
"I know I've been hard on the president lately. I'd like to say something nice about him. I'd like to be 'fair and balanced.' But my first responsibility as a reporter is to the truth. When one candidate tells half the truth, and the other says the truth doesn't matter, it becomes irresponsible for me or any other journalist not to report that by that standard—the standard of respecting the truth standard—one candidate is head and shoulders above the other."
I am sure you have all heard Lynn Cheney voicing her outrage that John Kerry mentioned that her daughter was a lesbian. You might think that Kerry outed Mary Cheney after seeing how upset the republicans have been, but she is a proud and open lesbian, and has been for years. Well, it is obvious that the republicans are looking for something, anything to use against Kerry right now. If this is the best they got then they are in worse trouble than I thought.
I'll leave it to Andrew Sullivan, who is both gay and a republican, to respond to this cheap, false outrage:
"I keep getting emails asserting that Kerry's mentioning of Mary Cheney is somehow offensive or gratuitous or a "low blow". Huh? Mary Cheney is out of the closet and a member, with her partner, of the vice-president's family. That's a public fact. No one's privacy is being invaded by mentioning this. When Kerry cites Bush's wife or daughters, no one says it's a "low blow." The double standards are entirely a function of people's lingering prejudice against gay people. And by mentioning it, Kerry showed something important. This issue is not an abstract one. It's a concrete, human and real one. It affects many families, and Bush has decided to use this cynically as a divisive weapon in an election campaign. He deserves to be held to account for this - and how much more effective than showing a real person whose relationship and dignity he has attacked and minimized? Does this makes Bush's base uncomfortable? Well, good. It's about time they were made uncomfortable in their acquiescence to discrimination."
CBS News Poll
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 25%
CNN Poll
Kerry: 52%
Bush: 39%
ABC News
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 41%
ABC looks close, but not after you look at the Party ID's on the poll. Bush was beat more then I thought it was.
Republicans: 38%
Democrats: 30%
Independents: 28%
Kerry won big, which I find surprising. I think Kerry beats Bush 100% on substantive debates. However, I thought Bush did a fairly good job at reaching out to voters in a general away, except for the minimum wage issue.
In general, Kerry really won tonight, or at least that's what the polls say.
This is from this morning's NY Times:
"Aides to both campaigns said the shape of the final map would probably become clear by the weekend, when polls measure the cumulative effect of these three debates."
This debate will go a long way towards showing us who will win in November and who will lose. I personally feel that this debate will be as important as the first debate was. The second debate, I feel, was a wash no matter how you look at it: lower ratings, town hall format, ordinary people asking the questions, aired on a friday night. Tonight's debate will have a large viewership, larger than the second. The Red Sox/Yankees game might hurt the ratings a smidge but not enough to effect the attitudes that won't be made up by the media on the morning shows on Thursday. The media has done its best to lower expectations for Bush and to let the people know that polls say that Kerry is supposed to win the debate. I would not be surprised if they still give Bush credit after a lackluster performance, just like they did last Friday. However, if Kerry performs equally as good as in the last two debates then I think he will be fine. Still, if he improves his performance by adding a few scathing one-liners then I think he wins big, and then I think that would open the door so wide for him to win that it would be difficult for Bush to close the gap.
But there is still a debate to be had afterall. Make sure to watch for those polls this weekend. I have a feeling that it will be difficult for either campaign, barring some outrageous October surprise, to have an oppurtunity to change the race more than this debate will tonight.
I have a feeling that one of Bush's talking points that will be hammered over and over again tomorrow will be that Kerry is a liberal. He will say it over and over in the hopes of painting Kerry in a negative light. Yes, the republicans have successfully turned liberal into a dirty word, but it is anything but a dirty word. Here are a few definitions of the word direct from Google. Just type in define:liberal and this is the first few defintions you will find.
a person who favors a political philosophy of progress and reform and the protection of civil libertiesa person who favors an economic theory of laissez-faire and self-regulating markets
showing or characterized by broad-mindedness; "a broad political stance"; "generous and broad sympathies"; "a liberal newspaper"; "tolerant of his opponent's opinions"
having political or social views favoring reform and progress
tolerant of change; not bound by authoritarianism, orthodoxy, or tradition
Perhaps, I am way outside the mainstream, but all those definitions sound complimentary to me. Maybe during tomorrow's debate Kerry should just thank Bush for the compliment and then proceed to wipe the floor with him.
Here is an excerpt from a piece in the Washington Post, showing the clear differences of two campaigns:
"Tickets to Bush events, distributed by the Republican Party, go only to those who volunteer or donate to the party or, in some cases, sign an endorsement of the GOP ticket and provide names and addresses; party workers police the crowds for signs of Kerry supporters, who have been evicted. The Bush crowds tend to be a mix of religious conservatives and businessmen. Kerry's campaign, too, distributes tickets, often through labor unions, although there is little effort made to determine ideological purity. 'I trust nobody here had to sign a loyalty oath to get in,' Kerry likes to say before taking questions from the crowd."Bush, the more polarizing figure, tends to draw far more demonstrators. Hundreds of protesters waving Kerry-Edwards signs are common outside Bush events, while Kerry draws smaller and less organized protests, with homemade signs such as one in Youngstown proclaiming a verse from James 1:8: 'A double minded man is unstable in all his ways.'"
My Electoral College Prediction (270 Needed to Win):
Kerry: 249
Bush: 249
States still up for grabs: Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico
Electoral-college.com's numbers:
Kerry: 280
Bush: 254
Electoral-college has Ohio leaning Kerry, Wisconsin leaning Kerry, Nevada leaning Kerry, New Mexico leaning Bush.
Now to the polls.
It looks like the race is still to close for anyone to predict with any real accuracy who might win. Still some polls are showing themselves to be out of proportion. The ABC/Washington Post tracking polls seem to be swelling Bush's numbers, which is strange since Bush's numbers have been fairly steady everywhere else.
Here's this from the EDM on the ABC/WP polls:
"It's also worth noting that, in 2000, the ABC/WP tracking poll missed the final vote pretty badly, having Bush up by 3 points at the very end and 3-4 points up on every night of the final week. Looks like they're poised to repeat their fine 2000 performance."
And as far as last friday's debate is concerned:
"Here's who independents thought was the winner:
Gallup: Kerry 53, Bush 37
ABC News: Kerry 44, Bush 34
Democracy Corps: Kerry 44, Bush 33
This makes the next debate all the more important--probably the last real chance for either candidate to really reach out to a large number of voters.
This from Salon's War Room:
"ABC News' Ed O'Keefe reports that former President Bill Clinton campaign for Senator John Kerry in the final push to election day. According to the campaign, Clinton will campaign 'as doctors see fit.' The former President will likely campaign in African-American communities and in other [get out the vote] efforts. Clinton will also likely participate in radio ads, robo calls and direct mail efforts."
There was an excellent piece on Kerry, "Kerry's Undeclared War" by Matt Bai, in yesterday's New York Times Magazine. In the article Kerry highlights his differences with the Bush administration on the so-called "War on Terror". It is a refreshing, thoughtful piece about a man who, I think, shows a breadth of foresight on the subjects that face our country today.
I will provide an excerpt as a kind of money shot to the whole piece. However, another reason that I would like to show this piece is because the Bushies and their friendly neighbors at the national media have taken selectively from the piece as a way to attack Kerry's position. Now I wouldn't expect the Bush people to be honest, why would they start now? But the media has a responsibility to try to give their audience some context. In the following excerpt I am giving you three consecutive paragraphs from the piece. I will place the quote that has been used selectively in bold print, and let you decide if this shows Kerry as out of touch, or someone with a less finite worldview than the guys currently running the show.
Here it is:
"In a rare moment of either candor or carelessness, or perhaps both, Bush told Matt Lauer on the 'Today' show in August that he didn't think the United States could actually triumph in the war on terror in the foreseeable future. 'I don't think you can win it,' he said -- a statement that he and his aides tried to disown but that had the ring of sincerity to it. He and other members of his administration have said that Americans should expect to be attacked again, and that the constant shadow of danger that hangs over major cities like New York and Washington is the cost of freedom. In his rhetoric, Bush suggests that terrorism for this generation of Americans is and should be an overwhelming and frightening reality."When I asked Kerry what it would take for Americans to feel safe again, he displayed a much less apocalyptic worldview. 'We have to get back to the place we were, where terrorists are not the focus of our lives, but they're a nuisance,'' Kerry said. ''As a former law-enforcement person, I know we're never going to end prostitution. We're never going to end illegal gambling. But we're going to reduce it, organized crime, to a level where it isn't on the rise. It isn't threatening people's lives every day, and fundamentally, it's something that you continue to fight, but it's not threatening the fabric of your life.'
"This analogy struck me as remarkable, if only because it seemed to throw down a big orange marker between Kerry's philosophy and the president's. Kerry, a former prosecutor, was suggesting that the war, if one could call it that, was, if not winnable, then at least controllable. If mobsters could be chased into the back rooms of seedy clubs, then so, too, could terrorists be sent scurrying for their lives into remote caves where they wouldn't harm us. Bush had continually cast himself as the optimist in the race, asserting that he alone saw the liberating potential of American might, and yet his dark vision of unending war suddenly seemed far less hopeful than Kerry's notion that all of this horror -- planes flying into buildings, anxiety about suicide bombers and chemicals in the subway -- could somehow be made to recede until it was barely in our thoughts."
Even the NY Times is now reporting on Bulgegate:
First they said that pictures showing the bulge might have been doctored. But then, when the bulge turned out to be clearly visible in the television footage of the evening, they offered a different explanation."There was nothing under his suit jacket," said Nicolle Devenish, a campaign spokeswoman.
"It was most likely a rumpling of that portion of his suit jacket, or a wrinkle in the fabric."
Ms. Devenish could not say why the "rumpling" was rectangular.
Zogby Daily Tracking Poll
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 46%
Electoral Vote Predictor (270 needed for win.)
Kerry: 280
Bush: 248
Kerry clearly has the momentum. Did last night's debate hurt his momentum? I don't think so, but we will have to wait for the coming days to see if Bush stopped the bleeding with his semi-coherent debate performance. I personally feel that more and more people are becoming comfortable with Kerry as president, and I think the polls will be reflecting that comfortability from now until election day.
Again, it looks as though the media has let Bush run on low expectations. It is hard for me to imagine that anybody watching last night's debate really thought Bush won, or even held his own with Kerry. Kerry was so much more composed, so much more reasonable and personable. About half way through the debate I turned to my wife and commented that Bush was doing horrible. I still stand by that assertion. He looked angry, pecking at the air with hishead like some strutting bird. His speaking scowl has become an almost permanent feature of his face, and he spews out strings of nonsense without a hint relevancy. Kerry, on the other hand has a strong command of the issues, and looks constantly more calm, always looking much more like a president then Bush.
Salon has an interesting article on the conspiracy that Bush was wired during the first debate. Here is an excerpt:
Bloggers stoke the conspiracy with the claim that the Bush administration insisted on a condition that no cameras be placed behind the candidates. An official for the Commission on Presidential Debates, which set up the lecterns and microphones on the Miami stage, said the condition was indeed real, the result of negotiations by both campaigns. Yet that didn't stop Fox from setting up cameras behind Bush and Kerry. The official said that "microphones were mounted on lecterns, and the commission put no electronic devices on the president or Senator Kerry." When asked about the bulge on Bush's back, the official said, "I don't know what that was."So what was it? Jacob McKenna, a spyware expert and the owner of the Spy Store, a high-tech surveillance shop in Spokane, Wash., looked at the Bush image on his computer monitor. "There's certainly something on his back, and it appears to be electronic," he said. McKenna said that, given its shape, the bulge could be the inductor portion of a two-way push-to-talk system. McKenna noted that such a system makes use of a tiny microchip-based earplug radio that is pushed way down into the ear canal, where it is virtually invisible. He also said a weak signal could be scrambled and be undetected by another broadcaster.
Here is how things look according to John Zogby's battleground polling. Zogby's polls give Kerry the major edge in Electoral Votes. If this map holds true Kerry would likely get over three hundred electoral votes.
However, Zobgy's National numbers have Bush up by 2%. So, does this mean that Bush could win the popular vote, and get trounced in the electoral college? Well, maybe. Ahhhh, the poetic justice of American democracy.
One thing these polls definitely show is that Kerry has major momentum coming out of that first debate. Edwards did nothing that hurt him in his debate. Now, Kerry just has to keep holding his own in the following two debates. Bush will try to put him on the defense, but Kerry needs to just turn the issue back to Bush's record. He can not spend time trying to defend his senate voting record. Make Bush defend his record. When Bush defends, he loses. Because there is no defense for Bush's record, and the American people know that. They are just waiting for Kerry to let them know that he knows it to.
This from a Washingtom Post editorial written a day after the debate:
"Mr. Cheney turned out to be a far different vice president than many expected -- more ideological and more partisan. He said last night that the continuation of partisan bickering was 'one of the disappointments of the last four years' -- as if the administration, and Mr. Cheney himself, had not contributed in any way to the worsening atmosphere.
"Last night Mr. Edwards persisted in some lines of criticism that we consider to be unsupported demagoguery, in particular hints of misconduct swirling around Mr. Cheney and Halliburton Co. But the Democrat was more effective, and more on point, in challenging Mr. Cheney on rationales for the Iraq war that have proven false, in particular connections between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda, and for the vice president's continuing failure to acknowledge the difficulties of the Iraq mission. 'Mr. Vice President, you are still not being straight with the American people,' were Mr. Edwards's first words to Mr. Cheney last night."
This from a very effective editorial from the NY Times:
"It was also very hard-fought - the contenders managed to be remarkably aggressive for two men who were sitting next to each other at a small table. Mr. Cheney called Mr. Edwards's remarks so thick with misrepresentation that he hardly knew how to respond. Mr. Edwards, when talking about the economy, said, "Mr. Vice President, I don't think the country can take four more years of this kind of experience.""Mr. Cheney, who won over many voters four years ago with his grandfatherly demeanor during a debate with Joseph Lieberman, seemed tired and angry. He was particularly dyspeptic when he responded to criticism of his relationship with Halliburton by claiming that Mr. Edwards had a bad attendance record in the Senate.
"Mr. Edwards is normally known for his wide grin and boyish appearance, but he was serious and tough last night."
Tonight Cheney said that he had never met John Edwards before the debate. It's pretty hard not to have met a guy when he is standing right behind you.
It has become increasingly more obvious that Cheney is a LIAR, and he just keeps lying and lying and lying. He is the Energizer bunny of lies. He just keeps going and going and going....
This from the Political Wire:
"It was a much more balanced debate, but I give the edge to Edwards. He amplified Kerry's themes from last week and continued pounding away at the flaws in the Bush administration's national security strategy. The best that can be said about Cheney's performance is that he fed red meat to his conservative base. But he needed to slow Kerry's momentum to win and did not."
This from Andrew Sullivan(Republican):
"Boy was I ever wrong. If last Thursday night's debate was an assisted suicide for president Bush, this debate - just concluded - was a car wreck. And Cheney was road-kill. There were times when it was so overwhelming a debate victory for Edwards that I had to look away."
This from the DailyKos:
"CBS News tracked the reactions to tonight's vice-presidential debate of a nationwide panel of 169 uncommitted voters - voters who could change their minds before Election Day. Here are the initial results. This scientific poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points:
"By 41% to 29%, uncommitted debate watchers say Edwards won the debate tonight."
I was just watching Hardball and Matthews and Scarborough were acting like Cheney clesned the floor with Edwards. Well, I don't think they watched the same debate that I did. I wouldn't say that either man came out of this debate with a clear lead. I think picking who won would have a lot to do with your party affiliation. If you like Cheney, then Cheney won. If you like Edwards, then Edwards won. Listen, Cheney was cool and informative, but cold and unemotional. Edwards was repetitive at times, but very emotional, seeming at times to directly reach out to the American people. I don't think this debate will change people's minds one way or another, but I could be wrong. Cheney might have scored points with the "stay the course crowd", but Edwards scored points with the crowd that is looking for someone to reach out and address their financial woes. In other words, Cheney might have scored points with hawks, but didn't gain any voters on the domestic front. Whereas, Edwards was a comforting presence, and that will probably mean more to voters than the continued stubborness they are receiving from the Bush administration.
A new post-debate poll was just released from the American Research Group. It shows gains for Kerry and a pretty decisive hit in Bush's job approval ratings. Here are the numbers:
Bush: 44%
Kerry: 47%
Nader: 2%
Undecided: 2%Bush's Job Approval:
Overall: 45%
Economy: 40%
Now, remember historically any sitting president with an approval rating below 46% is done. So, these are potentially fatal numbers for Bush.
However, the national horse race numbers show two things. First, Bush and Kerry are still within the margin of error. So, statistically they are tied. Second, there are still 7% undecided. This means that the numbers might still be volatile throughout the next month, and the next three debates will be crucial.
That being said, the Mystery Pollster has an article on the incumbent rule where he argues, "the undecided vote often breaks toward challengers in races featuring an incumbent." So, all in all this poll is good news for Kerry supporters.
There is still much work to be done, though. No one should be comfortable at this point--on either side.
This from the Washington Post:
"The former U.S. official who governed Iraq after the invasion said yesterday that the United States made two major mistakes: not deploying enough troops in Iraq and then not containing the violence and looting immediately after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.
"Ambassador L. Paul Bremer, administrator for the U.S.-led occupation government until the handover of political power on June 28, said he still supports the decision to intervene in Iraq but said a lack of adequate forces hampered the occupation and efforts to end the looting early on."
Electoral Vote Predictor: (270 Needed to win)
Bush: 220
Kerry: 243
Up For Grabs: 75
When I started these electoral college predictions I didn't want there to be any toss-up states. Because polls give us at least an indication of where the race is headed in every state. However, since there have been so few state polls taken since the first debate I will wait until next week to assign these toss-up states a color. Right now I think Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Florida are too close to call.
One of the reasons that I need to wait for state races is because of the shift that is taking place in the horse race polls. Kerry has erased the leads Bush had before the debate, and this kind of volatility in national polls is bound to have an impact in the so-called battleground states.
Here is an example:
Five days ago, the RealClearPolitics polling average(essentially a poll of polls), showed Bush up by 4.4%.
Here is where it stands today:
RealClearPolitics Average:
Kerry: 47.3%
Bush : 47.5%
There is movement, and there certainly is momentum for Kerry. Let's just hope that Edwards can continue the bounce in tomorrow's debate. It will be like watching Darth Vader debate Luke Skywalker. I wonder if Cheney will claim to be Edwards' father.
This from a Bob Herbert column in today's NY Times
"The political problem for Mr. Bush is that while he is offering a rosy picture of events in Iraq - perhaps because he believes it, or because he wants to bolster American morale - voters are increasingly seeing the bitter, tragic reality of those events. A president can stay out of step with reality only so long. Eventually there's a political price to pay. Lyndon Johnson's deceit with regard to Vietnam, for example, has never been forgiven."The president likes to tell us that "freedom is winning" in Iraq, that democracy is on the march. But Americans are coming to realize that Iraq is, in fact, a country in agony, beset by bombings, firefights, kidnappings, beheadings and myriad other forms of mayhem. The president may think that freedom is winning, but television viewers in the U.S. could see images over the weekend of distraught Iraqis pulling the bodies of small children from smoking rubble - a tragic but perfect metaphor for a policy in ruins."
This from Polysigh, regarding the new Newsweek poll:
"I can't figure out the question ordering for the Newsweek poll, which may matter for how seriously we take it. If they asked what voters thought about the debate first, and then asked them who they planned on voting for, then the poll probably had a problematic priming effect. If they asked who people were planning on voting for first, then it may be a reasonable estimate of public opinion."
Newsweek Poll w/Nader
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 2%
Newsweek Poll w/o Nader
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 46%
More important though is Bush's approval rating in this poll. It has fallen to 46%, dropping below the 50% mark for the first time since his convention.
This from the Meta-Analysist:
"Bush approval rating. Less than 46 means he is toast, more than 53 means Kerry is toast; in between is uncharted territory."
Sometimes it takes afew days for the debate spin to shake out before people start to realize what was the real product of the debates. Well, I think we are starting to hear a theme: Bush is not smart enough to be president.
This from Andrew Sullivan (a Republican):
"The trouble is: given what Bush has done these past eighteen months, and given his abilities, I'm not sure he can do better. We may have just had a man-behind-the-curtain moment. We are at war - the most dangerous war we have ever been in. And this guy is in charge?"
Then this from Bill Maher's monologue tonight on HBO's "Real Time with Bill Maher":
""Well, I don't want to say who won this debate, but today the FCC is furious. They are levelling big fines against the networks for showing the emperor without any clothes."
Is there a pattern developing around this idea. If enough people follow-up on the whole emperor-has-no-clothes bit, then I think it might really start to stick. I mean, his intelligence has always been joked about, and the idea that someone else might be pulling the strings has been discussed ad nauseum. But I think the country really saw the true George Bush last night. He really looked dumb, searching for some insight, bumbling for lost words. It wasn't pretty. It was extremely frightening.
Faux News again showed its true colors as an unfair and imbalanced news network. This from Josh Marshall:
"I will spare you any pretense of mock surprise that Fox News is ridiculously biased against the Kerry campaign. But it's one thing to know it and another to get such a blazing and undeniable example of it as a story with fabricated Kerry-bashing quotes put together by the Fox News reporter covering the Kerry campaign."
"Women should like me! I do manicures."
"Didn't my nails and cuticles look great? What a good debate!"
"I'm metrosexual — [Bush's] a cowboy."
"Earlier Friday, FOXNews.com posted an item purporting to contain quotations from Kerry. The item was based on a reporter’s partial script that had been written in jest and should not have been posted or broadcast. We regret the error, which occurred because of fatigue and bad judgment, not malice.
"Oh, and this isn't over, not by a long-shot. If a network calls itself 'fair and balanced', it shouldn't have a blatant anti-Kerry reporter on the beat."
This from the Kerry Rapid Response Center:
"REVIEWS ARE IN
“As far as the debate goes, I don't see how anybody could look at this debate and not score this a very clear win on points for John Kerry." -- Joe Scarborough"I thought the President was repetitive and reactive." - Kate O'Beirne
"It was John Kerry's best performance ever." -- Joe Scarborough
“The president was remarkably angry seeming"—Mark Halperin
"Bush appeared perturbed when Kerry leveled some of his charges, scowling at times and looking away in apparent disgust at others." Milbank and VandeHei
ABC POLL ON WHO WON DEBATE:
Kerry: 45
Bush 36:
Tie: 17
I'll tell you if Kate O'Beirne and Joe Scarborough are critical of Bush's performance, then Bush didn't just lose-- He lost big time.
