I refuse to predict the winner of tonight's debate. It has become nearly impossible to predict with any confidence who the media will dub the winner, and for what reasons they will use to crown the winner. It really all depends on whether they decide to pick the winner on the basis of style, or if they pick on the basis of substance. If the media decides to choose a winner on style then the edge goes to Bush. If they turn towards a more substantive analysis then I think Kerry wins the debate.
I have to say that I have very little confidence that the spinners and pundits will choose substance over style. So, it may be an uphill battle for Kerry. Bush is one of those guys who is easy to beat in the battle of ideas, but hard to beat if he can out-twinkle you in the eye department.
However, I do believe that Kerry has a better chance of earning style points then Bush has of being substantive.
Still, it is a crap shoot, and not one that I would place a bet on one way or another.