On the eve of the first presidential election this is, I think, a pretty fair reflection of the polls:
Real Clear Politics Poll Average (This is essentially a poll done with an average of the last several polls.)
Bush/Cheney: 48.4%
Kerry/Edwards:44.0%
This is also very similar to the results of Rasmussen daily tracking poll:
Bush: 49.1%
Kerry:45.3%
Although, I would agree that the race has Bush up by about four points, I would also preface this lead by saying that his lead has softened significantly since the convention, and that media concentrated events, like, say, a debate, tend to reshake the race. So, I think these numbers, which I think have been consistent only in their inconsistency these past few weeks, will look quite different after tomorrow's debates. That could mean a bigger lead for Bush, a dead heat, or a modest lead for Kerry.
Also, my home state of Ohio has become a very interesting state this election period. At first I thought it was up for grabs. Then I was ready to concede it to the Republicans. However, after hearing that Democratic voter registration was up nearly 250%, I was ready to put it back into play. Then I got the word a few days ago that Secretary of State Kenneth "Vote Stealer" Blackwell was throwing away thousands of voter registration applications because they weren't on the right weight paper. Now, as way of an update, here is what's new in Ohio from the Columbus Dispatch:
"Critics charged that the confusion and inconsistency threatened to prevent tens of thousands of would-be voters from participating in the general election and could trigger lawsuits challenging the results. They also blasted Blackwell for issuing the directive less than a month before Ohio’s voter registration deadline and at a time when elections officials are working around-the-clock to keep up with record-smashing registration efforts in a presidential battleground state."'There could be chaos on election day, and at the very least there is going to be inconsistencies,' said Scott Britton, executive director of the League of Women Voters of Ohio."
"'We should be making it easier for people to register to vote, not harder.'
"Jocelyn Travis, Ohio coordinator for the Election Protection coalition and People for the American Way Foundation, said, 'We can’t let a piece of paper stand between people and their right to register and vote.'"