Faux News Poll w/o Nader
Bush: 45%
Kerry:43%
Faux News Poll w/Nader
Bush: 46%
Kerry:42%
Nader: 1%
Democracy Corps Poll
Bush: 47%
Kerry:45%
And from the Democracy Corps analyses:
"One week before the first presidential debate, the race has narrowed to a very competitive 2 points, 45 percent for John Kerry and 47 percent for George Bush. Frankly, that is where the race has stood for most of the year, with the exception of the spring when the race was tied and after the two conventions. For an incumbent president, 47 percent is barely at the edge of electability and represents Bush’s performance of four years earlier. Indeed, if this election were really held tomorrow, the country would be at risk of repeating the 2000 events."
The Electoral Vote Predictor:
Bush: 273
Kerry:255
Remember the predictor still has Maryland as a tie when every poll shows that Kerry is winning big there. Trust me, Kerry will win Maryland. I promise. Also, the predictor has New Mexico leaning republican from the Mason-Dixon polls, but those polls have been proven wrong again and again. Every poll I've seen in recent memory has New Mexico going to Kerry. I won't promise that NM will go to Kerry, but I will predict that it will. Give Kerry the ten electoral votes from Maryland, because they are rightfully his. Then take NM from Bush and give it to Kerry and the race is Kerry's with 270 electoral votes, leaving Bush with 268. I'd be pretty happy with that.
However, the predictor is giving Kerry Florida, and I am unsure about that one. People have been talking about how important Ohio would be. Forget Ohio! It will be Florida, again.