The State of the Race: 41 Days left

The above electoral map is how the map would look today according to polling done in all 50 states by the American Research Group.
Their electoral numbers (270 needed to win):
Kerry: 270
Bush: 253
Both West Virginia and Wisconsin are at a dead heat.

Here are the numbers from Electoral-Vote.
Kerry: 269
Bush : 253
Both Arkansas and Maryland are at a dead heat. However, ARG shows that Kerry is up by 9 in Maryland. They have Bush up by 3 in Arkansas.

Here is a graph of national poll numbers from the Polling Report. You'll notice how much of an anomoly Gallup's poll offers when compared to all other polls.

Conventional wisdom says that the biggest reason that Bush 1st was booted from office was not only because the economy was bad, but that he seemed out of touch with the bad economy. The current Bush administration has tried very hard not to repeat the first President Bush’s mistake. So, they are trying to make sure that the president lets the people know that he understands their economic problems and that he feels their pain.
Who would have thought that this president would actually repeat the same error that his father made in 92? Well, he has. Only this time Bush is not out of touch with the economy. He is out of touch with the war in Iraq.
The Kerry campaign has done a good job of painting Bush into a corner, and you can see it every time he tries to explain how things are going in Iraq. If Bush says we are making progress then our televisions inevitably tell a different story. If he admits that things are a mess then that gives Kerry the opening to blame the mess on the Commander-In-Chief, which by the way is squarely where the blame belongs.
Bush 2nd will be booted from office not just because the war is going badly, but that because he seems out of touch with how bad the war is actually going.
I think this reason above all other reasons will be the reason Bush repeats the error of his father, and he will hit the trash heap of history with the same hollow thud his father did in 1992.

Posted by Paul Hina at September 22, 2004 10:35 PM