Current electoral prediction:
Kerry: 269
Bush: 269
Now, if this electoral tie were to happen we would have a bit of a crisis on our hands. Luckily, the constitution has a plan for such a situation. The House of Representatives, in case of an electoral tie, would decide the presidency. So, with the Republicans running the show in the House there is little doubt as to who they would give the keys of the White House to.
However, the Senate picks the vice-president, and since some are predicting the Senate could be neck and neck with Republicans and Democrats, there is a possibility of a tie there as well. Then guess who has the vote to break the tie? That's right, Dick Cheney.
The State most likely to change: Colorado
Colorado went to Bush in 2000, but many pollsters are polling it for Kerry or the ever popular too-close-to-call. I almost put it in Kerry's corner, but I will wait for some more information before I make a final call on it.
However, here is a link to a Princeton professor's website where he calculates the probabilities of the state races for the electoral college. He predicts that Kerry has a 91% chance of winning Colorado. How does he have the electoral college? Kerry, 278. Bush, 260.
I will put up a new map every Monday until after the election. So, come back and check it out.