We have been hearing a lot about a post-convention Bush bounce. This so-called bounce made many democrats nervous, especially after they saw the ridiculously inflated newsweekly polls that showed Bush with a double-digit lead. Well, if you have been reading my blog then you know all the reasons that these polls should not be trusted, and now we have the evidence.
New ICR Poll
Likely Voters w/Nader
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Nader 4%
w/o Nader among Likely Voters
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
w/o Nader among Registered Voters
Bush 46%
Kerry 47%
In other words, it is a tie.
Also, Rasmussen Reports, who is doing a wonderful daily tracking poll, has these numbers out today:
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
And the electoral map shows this:(270 needed for win)
Kerry 264
Bush 222
w/ Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida too close to call (completely tied), and Bush would have to win all of those states to win the election.
So, if Bush won Florida, Missouri and Colorado then he would have 269 electoral votes. If Kerry wins Nevada then he has 269 electoral votes. 269 for Kerry. 269 for Bush. 270 needed to win. I wonder who will decide that?
I am pretty sure it then has to go to the House of Representatives, which is strongly Republican. If the Republicans put Bush in the White House again then there will be mayhem in the streets, especially if Kerry were to win the popular vote.
If you think this country was a house divided in 2000, just wait.