From Politico:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.

Thankfully the Obama campaign has a firm response:

"Sen. Clinton had her red phone moment. She had it in 2002 — it was on the Iraq war — and she and George Bush and John McCain gave the wrong answer."

And then there's this:

The Texas Democratic Party has taken an interesting step for the upcoming hybrid primary/caucus: Asking the campaigns not to sue. "It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party," wrote party attorney Chad Dunn in a letter. "Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process."

According to party officials speaking under anonymity, the threat of a lawsuit has come from the Clinton campaign, during a conference call between the party and the campaigns. "Officials from Sen. Clinton's campaign at several times throughout the call raised the specter of 'challenging the process,'" according to one source.

Which party's nomination is she running for?

The Hillary campaign has officially turned me into a Hillary-hater now. I can now say, without reservation, that if she were to steal this nomination away now, she will never get my vote.

Inside Clinton's inner circle on Friday, the feeling was that the Thursday night debate in Austin was unlikely to slow Obama's momentum from 11 straight primary and caucus victories. Some supporters said they had discussed how to raise with Clinton the subject of withdrawing from the race should she fail to win decisively on March 4. One option was to wait a day or two and then dispatch emissaries to former president Clinton to urge him to make the case.

One adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely, said Obama's 17-point Wisconsin victory on Tuesday had started to sink in as a decisive blow, given that the state had been viewed weeks earlier as a level playing field.

"The mathematical reality at that point became impossible to ignore," the adviser said. "There's not a lot of denial left at this point."

Despite Clinton's public pronouncements of optimism, this adviser said: "She knows where things are going. It's pretty clear she has a big decision. But it's daunting. It's still hard to accept."

The sooner she gets out, the better for the party's chances in November. Obama and the DNC need a clear shot to make hay over all these new McCain developments. The longer Hillary stays in the race, the media's attention isn't as focussed on the Obama/McCain match-up.

"I think it's important for the DNC to ask itself, Is this really in the best interest of our eventual nominee? We do not want to be disenfranchising Michigan and Florida. We have to try to carry both of those states. I'd love to carry Texas, but it's usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee. Florida and Michigan are."

Gee, I hope no Texans heard that.

D'oh! She said it during the taping of the Texas Monthly Report, a highly watched Texas television program.

(Good catch from Al Giordano over at The Field)

Having staked out Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton cannot admit publicly that the nomination was lost before they arrived. Ohio and Texas are not must-wins for Hillary. After ten staggering losses in a row, there are no more must-wins.

If Hillary wins Ohio and Texas, it will just prolong the inevitable decline of the once inevitable candidate. She will continue to advocate the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations; she will continue to call for super delegates to overturn the public will if needed. She will continue to deepen the animosity she has encouraged from within her own base, showcasing the very politics they have chosen to reject. The irony will be that her greatest losses will be suffered as a result of her wins. With no end in sight, her attacks will look selfish and subversive. The empathy and respect she could have regained with a graceful exit in March will be replaced by a bitterness and frustration, with wounds unlikely to heal.

I absolutely agree with this. She can't win at this point without subverting the will of the voters. She stays in now mostly because of the fact that they have been pointing to Ohio and Texas for almost a month now. There is also some pride at stake, and they still think they can win in Ohio.

The only two things that could save them are an extremely negative push against Obama or an incredibly sharp downfall of Obama's support, which would only occur after a bombshell story or gaffe. Hillary tested going negative last night with her comment comparing Obama's borrowing words from friends as "change you can xerox". That comment fell like a lead balloon. I think by the end of the debate she knew it was over. Now, they're just playing the game for 11 more days just in case...

This from NYMag on Hillary's scorched earth campaign against Obama:

Over the past few days, her operation has begun to sharpen the "contrasts" between HRC and BHO. Rightly or wrongly, her people simply do not believe they can do much now to change her fundamental message on the positive side: that she's readier than Obama to assume the presidency on day one; that she's a fighter for kids and families and for the beleaguered middle class; that she's someone with a deep knowledge of public policy and that she can deliver. Instead, her people see their main chance as driving home a series of negative messages about Obama: the accusations of rhetorical plagiarism, of his inconsistency between talk and action, of his vacuousness and hypocrisy. One way of looking at Wisconsin, where these messages failed to move the needle much, is that they fell flat. Another way to see things is that the Clintonites started hammering too late and too soft.

Trust me when I tell you that the latter is the view in Clintonland. That they have more arrows in their quiver to fire at Obama, charges they believe will cast doubt on the hopemonger, raising the specter (terrifying to many Democrats) that John McCain and the Republican machine will make mincemeat of him. Trust me when I tell you that you ain't seen nothing yet.

Party elders needs to step in and say enough is enough, or this is going to get so ugly that Obama will quickly lose his general election advantage.

Even if Hillary gets the nomination now, I will never vote for her.

This from the Washington Post:

Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest.

Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended.

What Clinton aides discovered is that in certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa's heavily Hispanic Senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston -- where Sen. Barack Obama expects to receive significant support -- could yield three or four times as many delegates.

I've known about this system for weeks. So, it looks like I'm more on top of things than the Clinton campaign.

Who is running her campaign?

The Clinton campaign doesn't even seem to know what the hell is going on in one of the primaries they have staked her potential candidacy on. It doesn't give you much confidence in their competence does it?

One last thing. I wonder if someone is keeping count of their excuses?

UPDATE: This from Jason Zengerie over at TNR:

So let me get this straight: The Clinton campaign basically decided to bank almost everything on Texas (along with Ohio), without botheing to do due diligence on the delegate apportoinment procedures there? If she does wind up winning the White House, who's the lucky aide who gets to troop into the Oval Office and deliver the shocking news to her that we've got troops in Iraq.

Though I hate to agree with conservative Michael Gerson, I found this assessment of Hillary's path to the nomination just about spot-on:

Though it is increasingly unlikely, Clinton may still have a path to the nomination -- and what a path it is. She merely has to puncture the balloon of Democratic idealism; sully the character of a good man; feed racial tensions within her party; then eke out a win with the support of unelected superdelegates, thwarting the hopes of millions of new voters who would see an inspiring young man defeated by backroom arm-twisting and arcane party rules.

Unlikely -- but it would be a fitting contribution to the Clinton legacy of monumental selfishness.

Read these two anecdotes about organizational meeting in Ohio. Over 700 in Cincinnatti. Over 1000 in Columbus--for Organizational Meetings!

Remember these aren't just soft supporters these are organizers, people who will be out spending time and shoe leather on Obama's behalf.

The enthusiasm gap between Obama supporters and Clinton supporters is just enormous.

Ignore all Ohio polls until the week before the election, and even then, take them with a grain of salt.

Hillary Clinton will take the Democratic nomination even if she does not win the popular vote, but persuades enough superdelegates to vote for her at the convention, her campaign advisers say.

The New York senator, who lost three primaries Tuesday night, now lags slightly behind her rival, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, in the delegate count. She is even further behind in "pledged'' delegates, those assigned by virtue of primaries and caucuses.

But Clinton will not concede the race to Obama if he wins a greater number of pledged delegates by the end of the primary season, and will count on the 796 elected officials and party bigwigs to put her over the top, if necessary, said Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson.

"I want to be clear about the fact that neither campaign is in a position to win this nomination without the support of the votes of the superdelegates,'' Wolfson told reporters in a conference call.

The arrogance, the Clintons' enormous sense of entitlement, will eventually doom the party.

...and they feel fine.

"The only way she could do it is by winning most of the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points. Even the most creative math really does not get her, ever, back to even in terms of pledged delegates."

All that's left is the vote-counting.

The Hillary camp knows the hard truth of these numbers as much as anyone else. So, unless the Clintons plan on taking the Democratic party down with them, then she should bow out sooner rather than later. My guess is that we'll see a concession after the Ohio and Texas races.

D.C.
Obama: 71%
Clinton: 29%

Maryland
Obama: 61%
Clinton: 39%

Virginia
Obama: 59%
Clinton: 41%

Note: If anything close to these numbers hold then be prepared for a week of Hillary obituaries. I hope the press spends more time talking about the rise of Obama then they do on the fall of the Clintons. The fall of the Clinton narrative could actually hurt Obama in later contests. Remember that nobody plays the victim card better than the Clintons.