November 03, 2008
2008 Election Prediction
Popular Vote Prediction:
Obama: 51.8%
McCain: 46.1%
Other: 2.1%
However, if Obama's turnout mechanism really comes out in full force and his percentages exceed 53% then I think the map will look more like this:
Daily Tracking Average: 1 Day To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.5% (+0.5%)
McCain: 44.5% (NC)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 11/03/2008.
November 02, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 2 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.0% (-0.3%)
McCain: 44.5% (+0.5%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 11/02/2008.
November 01, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 3 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.3% (+0.8%)
McCain: 44.0% (NC)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 11/01/2008.
October 31, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 4 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.5% (+0.5%)
McCain: 44.0% (-0.3%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/31/2008.
October 30, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 5 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.0% (NC)
McCain: 44.3% (NC)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/30/2008.
October 29, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 6 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.0% (-0.5%)
McCain: 44.3% (+0.5%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/29/2008.
My Take: One Week To Go
National Vote Prediction:
Obama: 51.8%
McCain: 46.6%
I obviously do not see the electoral math being very close right now. However, I do not think this will translate into a huge national victory. I see Obama winning right now with close to 52% of the vote. I see McCain getting slightly less than 47%. Then again, the polls have been closing toward McCain this week, and I think this is an indication of the way undecideds may be breaking. If national poll averages give Obama a less than 4% lead on election day then Obama voters should be nervous. We should not be overconfident.
October 28, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 7 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.5% (-0.5%)
McCain: 43.8% (+0.5%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/28/2008.
October 27, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 8 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.0% (-0.3%)
McCain: 43.3% (+1.0%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/27/2008.
October 26, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 9 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.3% (-0.2%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/26/2008.
October 25, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 10 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.5% (-0.5%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/25/2008.
October 24, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 11 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.3% (+0.8%)
McCain: 43.0% (-0.5%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/24/2008.
October 23, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 12 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.5% (+0.2%)
McCain: 43.5% (+0.5%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/23/2008.
October 22, 2008
DailyTracking Average: 13 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (+0.5%)
McCain: 43.0% (+0.2%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/22/2008.
October 21, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 14 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.8% (NC)
McCain: 42.8% (-0.5%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/21/2008.
October 20, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 15 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.8% (-0.2)
McCain: 43.3% (NC)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/20/2008.
October 19, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 16 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.0% (NC)
McCain: 43.3% (-0.5)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/19/2008.
October 18, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 17 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.0% (-0.8)
McCain: 43.8% (+0.5)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/18/2008.
October 17, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 18 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.8% (+0.3)
McCain: 43.3% (NC)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/17/2008.
October 16, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 19 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.5% (-0.5)
McCain: 43.3% (+0.8%)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/16/2008.
October 15, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 20 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.0% (+0.7)
McCain: 42.5% (NC)
* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/15/2008.
My Take: 3 Weeks Out
This is definitely an optimistic map, but there is reason for optimism. This could change and probably will. Three weeks is a long time in our modern 24/7 political theater, and there are 19 more news cycles from here until election day.
Pollster.com's national graph.
October 14, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 21 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.5% (+0.5%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/14/2008.
October 13, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 22 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (-0.5%)
McCain: 42.0% (-0.3%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/13/2008.
October 12, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 23 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.8% (-0.2%)
McCain: 42.3% (+0.8%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/12/2008.
October 11, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 24 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 51.0% (+0.7%)
McCain: 41.5% (-0.3%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/11/2008.
October 10, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 25 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (+0.3%)
McCain: 41.8% (-0.2%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/10/2008.
October 09, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 26 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.0% (+0.2%)
McCain: 42.0% (-0.3%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/09/2008.
October 08, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 27 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.8% (-0.5%)
McCain: 42.3% (NC)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/08/2008.
October 07, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 28 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.3% (+0.5%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/07/2008.
October 06, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 29 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 41.8% (-0.2%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/06/2008.
October 05, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 30 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.0% (NC)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/05/2008.
October 04, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 31 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 50.3% (+0.5%)
McCain: 42.0% (NC)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/04/2008.
October 03, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 32 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.8% (+0.3%)
McCain: 42.0% (-0.3%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/03/2008.
October 02, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 33 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.3% (-1.0%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/02/2008.
October 01, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 34 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.3% (-0.2%)
McCain: 43.3% (+0.8%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/01/2008.
September 30, 2008
My Take: 5 Weeks Out
Make your own map at The Washington Post website.
Daily Tracking Average: 35 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.5% (NC)
McCain: 42.5% (-0.3%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/30/2008.
September 29, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 36 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.5% (+0.2%)
McCain: 42.8% (NC)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/29/2008.
September 28, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 37 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.3% (+0.3%)
McCain: 42.8% (-0.4%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/28/2008.
September 27, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 38 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 49.0% (+0.2%)
McCain: 43.2% (-0.1%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/27/2008.
September 26, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 39 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 48.8% (+0.4%)
McCain: 43.3% (-1.0%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/26/2008.
September 25, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 40 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 47.9% (-0.1%)
McCain: 44.3% (+0.1%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/25/2008.
September 24, 2008
The Flack and the Media
Who will win the debates? Howard Wolfson's verdict:
Friday's debate will have a huge audience and that group of voters will make a judgment based on what they actually see and hear. An even larger group will form their impressions of the debates from the news in the days to come. And even the group that watched the debate will have their judgments tested and challenged by the media's analysis. This means that voters may decide that one candidate won the debate on Friday morning and have concluded by Monday that the other guy was actually victorious. That's why both campaigns will be doing everything they can from the opening bell to win the debate over the debate.
In other words, the media will decide who wins.
The Cell Phone Black Hole
Some people don't know that cellphone users are not sampled by every pollster. Does this make a difference? Yes, it definitely does.
Max Blumenthal from Pollster.com references a groundbreaking Pew study:
In each of the surveys, there were only small, and not statistically significant, differences between presidential horserace estimates based on the combined interviews and estimates based on the landline surveys only. Yet a virtually identical pattern is seen across all three surveys: In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin.
September 23, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 42 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 47.9% (-0.1%)
McCain: 44.2% (+0.2%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/23/2008.
September 22, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 43 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 48.0% (+0.8%)
McCain: 44.0% (-0.2%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/22/2008.
September 21, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 44 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 47.2% (-0.9%)
McCain: 44.2% (+0.1%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/21/2008.
September 20, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 45 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 48.1% (+0.8%)
McCain: 44.1% (-0.1%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/20/2008.
September 19, 2008
Daily Tracking Average: 46 Days To Go
Daily Tracking Average*
Obama: 47.3% (NC)
McCain: 44.2% (+0.1%)
* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 09/19/2008.