Daily Tracking Average: 4 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.5% (+0.5%)
McCain: 44.0% (-0.3%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/31/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 5 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.0% (NC)
McCain: 44.3% (NC)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/30/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 6 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.0% (-0.5%)
McCain: 44.3% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/29/2008.

My Take: One Week To Go

National Vote Prediction:
Obama: 51.8%
McCain: 46.6%

I obviously do not see the electoral math being very close right now. However, I do not think this will translate into a huge national victory. I see Obama winning right now with close to 52% of the vote. I see McCain getting slightly less than 47%. Then again, the polls have been closing toward McCain this week, and I think this is an indication of the way undecideds may be breaking. If national poll averages give Obama a less than 4% lead on election day then Obama voters should be nervous. We should not be overconfident.

Daily Tracking Average: 7 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.5% (-0.5%)
McCain: 43.8% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/28/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 8 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.0% (-0.3%)
McCain: 43.3% (+1.0%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/27/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 9 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.3% (-0.2%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/26/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 10 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.5% (-0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/25/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 11 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.3% (+0.8%)
McCain: 43.0% (-0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/24/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 12 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.5% (+0.2%)
McCain: 43.5% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/23/2008.

My Take: Two Weeks Out

DailyTracking Average: 13 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (+0.5%)
McCain: 43.0% (+0.2%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/22/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 14 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 49.8% (NC)
McCain: 42.8% (-0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/21/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 15 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 49.8% (-0.2)
McCain: 43.3% (NC)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/20/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 16 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.0% (NC)
McCain: 43.3% (-0.5)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/19/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 17 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.0% (-0.8)
McCain: 43.8% (+0.5)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/18/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 18 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.8% (+0.3)
McCain: 43.3% (NC)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/17/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 19 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.5% (-0.5)
McCain: 43.3% (+0.8%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/16/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 20 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.0% (+0.7)
McCain: 42.5% (NC)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/15/2008.

My Take: 3 Weeks Out

This is definitely an optimistic map, but there is reason for optimism. This could change and probably will. Three weeks is a long time in our modern 24/7 political theater, and there are 19 more news cycles from here until election day.

Pollster.com's national graph.

Daily Tracking Average: 21 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.5% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/14/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 22 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (-0.5%)
McCain: 42.0% (-0.3%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/13/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 23 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.8% (-0.2%)
McCain: 42.3% (+0.8%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/12/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 24 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.0% (+0.7%)
McCain: 41.5% (-0.3%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/11/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 25 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (+0.3%)
McCain: 41.8% (-0.2%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/10/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 26 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.0% (+0.2%)
McCain: 42.0% (-0.3%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/09/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 27 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 49.8% (-0.5%)
McCain: 42.3% (NC)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/08/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 28 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.3% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/07/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 29 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 41.8% (-0.2%)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/06/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 30 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (NC)
McCain: 42.0% (NC)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/05/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 31 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.3% (+0.5%)
McCain: 42.0% (NC)

* Average of Gallup, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/04/2008.