February 02, 2008

The Clinton Campaign is Worried

This from The Stump:

The Clinton campaign just announced that the former president will spend all day Sunday in California. His stops--Los Angeles, Inglewood, Gardena, Norwalk--are all in the LA area.

Perhaps a sign that the Clintons are sweating the possibility of losing the popular vote to Obama, which would be a major symbolic blow.

They recognize that losing California would be a huge blow to their campaign. If Obama picks 7-8 states on Tuesday then he did what he was supposed to do. But if he picks up 9+ then it will be construed as a blow to Hillary, and if California is on Obama's list then get ready for some more of the post-Iowa Clinton craziness that we saw.

The Clintons are well aware of all of this, and they know that their expectations game is far tougher than Obama's. If they get 14-15 states then they did what they were expected to do. The only way that this will be considered a victory is if they get a huge bulk of delegates, which they won't do.

Imagine a scenario where they split the states with Obama 11-11.
Obama gets: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Utah, Missourri, Connecticut, Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, Alaska, and Colorado
Hillary gets: New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, New Mexico, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Delaware, North Dakota, and California
If that were to happen, and it very well could, then all the wind will be at Obama's back. The Obama train will have left the station, and Bill and Hillary will be lonely travelers on one of those handcar trains with the see-saw lever on it, fighting to get some momentum.

Posted by Paul Hina at 10:50 PM