Two More Reasons to Hate Hillary

There's the new "Red Phone" ad that is straight out of the Republican playbook of playing on the nation's fear.

Thankfully the Obama campaign has a firm response:

"Sen. Clinton had her red phone moment. She had it in 2002 — it was on the Iraq war — and she and George Bush and John McCain gave the wrong answer."

And then there's this:

The Texas Democratic Party has taken an interesting step for the upcoming hybrid primary/caucus: Asking the campaigns not to sue. "It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party," wrote party attorney Chad Dunn in a letter. "Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process."

According to party officials speaking under anonymity, the threat of a lawsuit has come from the Clinton campaign, during a conference call between the party and the campaigns. "Officials from Sen. Clinton's campaign at several times throughout the call raised the specter of 'challenging the process,'" according to one source.

Which party's nomination is she running for?

The Hillary campaign has officially turned me into a Hillary-hater now. I can now say, without reservation, that if she were to steal this nomination away now, she will never get my vote.

Hostile Hillary Goes Bananas!

Stick a fork in her. She's done.

C-r-a-z-y.

Hillary Sees the Writing on the Wall

It's over, and her campaign already knows it:

Inside Clinton's inner circle on Friday, the feeling was that the Thursday night debate in Austin was unlikely to slow Obama's momentum from 11 straight primary and caucus victories. Some supporters said they had discussed how to raise with Clinton the subject of withdrawing from the race should she fail to win decisively on March 4. One option was to wait a day or two and then dispatch emissaries to former president Clinton to urge him to make the case.

One adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely, said Obama's 17-point Wisconsin victory on Tuesday had started to sink in as a decisive blow, given that the state had been viewed weeks earlier as a level playing field.

"The mathematical reality at that point became impossible to ignore," the adviser said. "There's not a lot of denial left at this point."

Despite Clinton's public pronouncements of optimism, this adviser said: "She knows where things are going. It's pretty clear she has a big decision. But it's daunting. It's still hard to accept."

The sooner she gets out, the better for the party's chances in November. Obama and the DNC need a clear shot to make hay over all these new McCain developments. The longer Hillary stays in the race, the media's attention isn't as focussed on the Obama/McCain match-up.

Hillary Messes With Texas

This from Hillary:

"I think it's important for the DNC to ask itself, Is this really in the best interest of our eventual nominee? We do not want to be disenfranchising Michigan and Florida. We have to try to carry both of those states. I'd love to carry Texas, but it's usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee. Florida and Michigan are."

Gee, I hope no Texans heard that.

D'oh! She said it during the taping of the Texas Monthly Report, a highly watched Texas television program.

(Good catch from Al Giordano over at The Field)

Hillary Has Lost

This from Dylan Loewe, who has a new must-read blog::

Having staked out Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton cannot admit publicly that the nomination was lost before they arrived. Ohio and Texas are not must-wins for Hillary. After ten staggering losses in a row, there are no more must-wins.

If Hillary wins Ohio and Texas, it will just prolong the inevitable decline of the once inevitable candidate. She will continue to advocate the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations; she will continue to call for super delegates to overturn the public will if needed. She will continue to deepen the animosity she has encouraged from within her own base, showcasing the very politics they have chosen to reject. The irony will be that her greatest losses will be suffered as a result of her wins. With no end in sight, her attacks will look selfish and subversive. The empathy and respect she could have regained with a graceful exit in March will be replaced by a bitterness and frustration, with wounds unlikely to heal.

I absolutely agree with this. She can't win at this point without subverting the will of the voters. She stays in now mostly because of the fact that they have been pointing to Ohio and Texas for almost a month now. There is also some pride at stake, and they still think they can win in Ohio.

The only two things that could save them are an extremely negative push against Obama or an incredibly sharp downfall of Obama's support, which would only occur after a bombshell story or gaffe. Hillary tested going negative last night with her comment comparing Obama's borrowing words from friends as "change you can xerox". That comment fell like a lead balloon. I think by the end of the debate she knew it was over. Now, they're just playing the game for 11 more days just in case...

Hillary Will Take the Party Down With Her

This from NYMag on Hillary's scorched earth campaign against Obama:

Over the past few days, her operation has begun to sharpen the "contrasts" between HRC and BHO. Rightly or wrongly, her people simply do not believe they can do much now to change her fundamental message on the positive side: that she's readier than Obama to assume the presidency on day one; that she's a fighter for kids and families and for the beleaguered middle class; that she's someone with a deep knowledge of public policy and that she can deliver. Instead, her people see their main chance as driving home a series of negative messages about Obama: the accusations of rhetorical plagiarism, of his inconsistency between talk and action, of his vacuousness and hypocrisy. One way of looking at Wisconsin, where these messages failed to move the needle much, is that they fell flat. Another way to see things is that the Clintonites started hammering too late and too soft.

Trust me when I tell you that the latter is the view in Clintonland. That they have more arrows in their quiver to fire at Obama, charges they believe will cast doubt on the hopemonger, raising the specter (terrifying to many Democrats) that John McCain and the Republican machine will make mincemeat of him. Trust me when I tell you that you ain't seen nothing yet.

Party elders needs to step in and say enough is enough, or this is going to get so ugly that Obama will quickly lose his general election advantage.

Even if Hillary gets the nomination now, I will never vote for her.

Hillary Already Making Excuses in Texas

The Hillary campaign has somehow convinced the press that Texas and Ohio are the two most important state primaries in the history of the United States. And yet, they see that they may not do as well as expected. So, as they are prone to do, they are already making excuses for a Texas delegate deficit.

This from the Washington Post:

Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest.

Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended.

What Clinton aides discovered is that in certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa's heavily Hispanic Senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston -- where Sen. Barack Obama expects to receive significant support -- could yield three or four times as many delegates.

I've known about this system for weeks. So, it looks like I'm more on top of things than the Clinton campaign.

Who is running her campaign?

The Clinton campaign doesn't even seem to know what the hell is going on in one of the primaries they have staked her potential candidacy on. It doesn't give you much confidence in their competence does it?

One last thing. I wonder if someone is keeping count of their excuses?

UPDATE: This from Jason Zengerie over at TNR:

So let me get this straight: The Clinton campaign basically decided to bank almost everything on Texas (along with Ohio), without botheing to do due diligence on the delegate apportoinment procedures there? If she does wind up winning the White House, who's the lucky aide who gets to troop into the Oval Office and deliver the shocking news to her that we've got troops in Iraq.

Hillary's Dirty Path to the Nomination

Though I hate to agree with conservative Michael Gerson, I found this assessment of Hillary's path to the nomination just about spot-on:

Though it is increasingly unlikely, Clinton may still have a path to the nomination -- and what a path it is. She merely has to puncture the balloon of Democratic idealism; sully the character of a good man; feed racial tensions within her party; then eke out a win with the support of unelected superdelegates, thwarting the hopes of millions of new voters who would see an inspiring young man defeated by backroom arm-twisting and arcane party rules.

Unlikely -- but it would be a fitting contribution to the Clinton legacy of monumental selfishness.

Obama in Ohio

Think Obama doesn't have momentum in Ohio?

Read these two anecdotes about organizational meeting in Ohio. Over 700 in Cincinnatti. Over 1000 in Columbus--for Organizational Meetings!

Remember these aren't just soft supporters these are organizers, people who will be out spending time and shoe leather on Obama's behalf.

The enthusiasm gap between Obama supporters and Clinton supporters is just enormous.

Ignore all Ohio polls until the week before the election, and even then, take them with a grain of salt.

Hillary: Pry the Nomination from My Cold, Dead Hands

Will she stop at anything?

Hillary Clinton will take the Democratic nomination even if she does not win the popular vote, but persuades enough superdelegates to vote for her at the convention, her campaign advisers say.

The New York senator, who lost three primaries Tuesday night, now lags slightly behind her rival, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, in the delegate count. She is even further behind in "pledged'' delegates, those assigned by virtue of primaries and caucuses.

But Clinton will not concede the race to Obama if he wins a greater number of pledged delegates by the end of the primary season, and will count on the 796 elected officials and party bigwigs to put her over the top, if necessary, said Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson.

"I want to be clear about the fact that neither campaign is in a position to win this nomination without the support of the votes of the superdelegates,'' Wolfson told reporters in a conference call.

The arrogance, the Clintons' enormous sense of entitlement, will eventually doom the party.

...and they feel fine.

The Reality of the Numbers

From Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, on Hillary's chances of securing the nomination:

"The only way she could do it is by winning most of the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points. Even the most creative math really does not get her, ever, back to even in terms of pledged delegates."

All that's left is the vote-counting.

The Hillary camp knows the hard truth of these numbers as much as anyone else. So, unless the Clintons plan on taking the Democratic party down with them, then she should bow out sooner rather than later. My guess is that we'll see a concession after the Ohio and Texas races.

My Potomac Primary Predictions

D.C.
Obama: 71%
Clinton: 29%

Maryland
Obama: 61%
Clinton: 39%

Virginia
Obama: 59%
Clinton: 41%

Note: If anything close to these numbers hold then be prepared for a week of Hillary obituaries. I hope the press spends more time talking about the rise of Obama then they do on the fall of the Clintons. The fall of the Clinton narrative could actually hurt Obama in later contests. Remember that nobody plays the victim card better than the Clintons.

The State of the Dem Nomination

From Intrade:

Lazy Punditry from Paul

I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow in Virginia, Maryland, and D.C., but my guess is that Obama wins pretty handily.

If that happens, and all the wins are by double-digits, then I find it incredibly hard to see how Hillary comes back from being trounced in seven races in a row(eight if you count the U.S. Virgin Islands).

The media will have already started writing her obit when Wisconsin and Hawaii vote on the 19th. And if those two states go Obama, which they probably will, then Ohio and Texas will seem like a million miles away from her.

McCain: Like Hope, But Different

This is hilarious:

Obama is the Baddest

"Whoever wins this Democratic primary...they're the toughest, baddest candidate on the block."

--Sen. Barack Obama, in an interview with 60 Minutes, which will air this Sunday.

(Tip to Political Wire and Ben Smith)

Gore for Obama?

Steve Clemons over at Huffington Post is getting our hopes up--especially mine.

The Bets Are In

This probably doesn't mean much, but this is the first time Obama has been the odds-on favorite to win the Dem nomination on Intrade.

I am really surprised to see how dramatic the shift has been in the past 24 hours toward Obama. It will take a few days to see if this kind of shift is reflected in the polls.

Super Tuesday: The Morning After

All in all I am pleased with last night's results. I think many Obama supporters were disappointed because exit polls had looked to overwhelmingly favor him in many important states. As the night went on, we all learned again that exit polls are worthless.

My predictions from yesterday were just about spot-on. I was wrong about Mass. and Conn. I thought they were both toss-ups so i split them between the two candidates, I just split them in the wrong direction, and I could still be wrong about New Mexico. I hope I am--still too close to call.

One thing that I would like to caution against, though, is the chatter I am hearing about Obama's advantage in the upcoming February states. The Obama campaign does not need anyone to raise expectations. So, I am keeping my hands off forecasting the individual contests for a bit. All I'll say is if I were to handicap the race today, I would go 51-49 for Obama.

Two reasons I give him the slightest of advantages: money and, I hope, more endorsements--BIG endorsements.

Super Tuesday Predictions

Red= Clinton

In case you can't see the map clearly, here are my predictions:
Obama wins: Alaska, Alabama, Illinois, Massachusetts, Delaware, Minnesota, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, and Utah

Hillary wins: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Tennesseee, Arkansas, Arizona, New Mexico, California, Oklahoma

States I picked but have no clue about: California, Missouri, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Alabama. All of these states are going to be so close that the delegate difference will be insignificant. All that will matter is how the campaigns spin it.
Since you can clearly see that I am an Obama supporter, these projections may be a tad optimistic...But I can't shake that Hope thing.

Will Democrats Waste the Obama Oppurtunity?

I keep asking myself the same question: Am I in a bubble? Why is that I can see how valuable the Obama candidacy could be for the future of Democratic Party, and yet the Democratic establishment is still in resist mode?

It is clear that Obama wears better on voters than Clinton does, and yet she is still polling in the forties in most polls. Is this voter ignorance? Do they not see Obama's potential? Do they still feel loyalty to the Clintons?

We will start to get answers to these questions on Super Tuesday.

In the meantime, I am concerned at the enormously high level of poll watching that is going on right now. Too many liberal blogs and network pundits are talking about the polls. But the polls have been more wrong than right almost everywhere this year. It is best to look at the trends and not focus on the actual numbers, and the trends favor Obama.

Obama certainly has momentum, but is it enough?

The number one thing to look for on Super Tuesday is still the delegate counts. If Obama is close--within 50--or leading after Super Tuesday then it is his race to lose.

But, for today, no one knows a thing.

The Clinton Campaign is Worried

This from The Stump:

The Clinton campaign just announced that the former president will spend all day Sunday in California. His stops--Los Angeles, Inglewood, Gardena, Norwalk--are all in the LA area.

Perhaps a sign that the Clintons are sweating the possibility of losing the popular vote to Obama, which would be a major symbolic blow.

They recognize that losing California would be a huge blow to their campaign. If Obama picks 7-8 states on Tuesday then he did what he was supposed to do. But if he picks up 9+ then it will be construed as a blow to Hillary, and if California is on Obama's list then get ready for some more of the post-Iowa Clinton craziness that we saw.

The Clintons are well aware of all of this, and they know that their expectations game is far tougher than Obama's. If they get 14-15 states then they did what they were expected to do. The only way that this will be considered a victory is if they get a huge bulk of delegates, which they won't do.

Imagine a scenario where they split the states with Obama 11-11.
Obama gets: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Utah, Missourri, Connecticut, Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, Alaska, and Colorado
Hillary gets: New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, New Mexico, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Delaware, North Dakota, and California
If that were to happen, and it very well could, then all the wind will be at Obama's back. The Obama train will have left the station, and Bill and Hillary will be lonely travelers on one of those handcar trains with the see-saw lever on it, fighting to get some momentum.

Early Voting and Super Tuesday

Obama certainly has had some serious momentum over the past week. This momentum will surely be reflected at the polls on Super Tuesday--won't it?

In the majority of the Super Tuesday states we will get a pretty accurate picture of how the race stands that day. However, in Illinois, Arizona, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, Tennessee, Utah, and California we will have a mixture of early, absentee votes mixed with the votes cast on election day. So, the question is who do these early votes help?

It is pretty clear to me that these absentee votes will pretty overwhelmingly favor Clinton (except for in Illinois, which is Obama's home state). Clinton does much better among older, white voters than Obama does. Absentee demographics almost always show this group taking advantage of absentee voting over all other demographics. The good thing for Obama is that these votes would have probably gone to Hillary anyway. Still, though, it will be interesting to see how much this hurts Obama in states where he has made recent gains, such as California and New Jersey.

We won't know until Tuesday, or maybe Wednesday.

In the meantime here are two good pieces(1, 2) about early voting.

Edwards' Voters For Obama?

It looks like I wrote off the Edwards' voters too soon:

The last two nights of tracking were the first without John Edwards in the race. For those two nights, it's Clinton 44% and Obama 42% meaning that Clinton's support is essentially unchanged. This suggests that many former Edwards supporters now support Obama, many others have yet to make a decision, and few currently support Clinton.

Tip to Andrew Sullivan.