What Happened in New Hampshire?

How did everyone get it so wrong--including me--in New Hampshire?

Some reasons:
1. Women: They came out strongly in support of Clinton. I 'll call this, "The Tears of a Clown" effect.
2. Independents: There was speculation that Obama would garner up to 70% of independent voters. That was way off. Maybe, people thought he had it sowed up and decided to support McCain in what they perceived as a closer Republican race, but really no one knows.
3. Democrats: There was a huge, record breaking turnout and it looks like big D democrats came out in full force, and these NH Democrats have deep roots in the Clinton history, roots to deep to change.
4. Polls: We trust polls as an indicator of the race. It's the closest thing for those of us not on the ground to an indicator of votes. And they were so far off the mark in a way I have never seen before. This was the biggest disaster for pollsters that I have ever seen.
5. Michael Whouley: The best vote wrangler in modern history. Hillary had him.

All said and done, I have this race changed to a 50/50 race. A week ago, I would have still given Clinton the edge, but now after Iowa, and the flood of media attention, I give Obama enough national credibility to take that edge away. This race will go at least until February 5th and probably beyond.

Note: Edwards is off the map, and risks losing all credibility by staying in the race.