The Importance of Nevada for the Democratic Nomination

This from the New York Observer:

Barack Obama needs Nevada more than Hillary Clinton does.

This is not to say that Saturday's caucuses are do-or-die test for Obama. Even in defeat in Nevada, Obama would be in a strong position to win in South Carolina, the final official Democratic test before February 5. In other words, Obama would still be able to enter "Super-Duper Tuesday" with wins in two of the first four contests, making him plenty viable in the nearly two dozen states that will vote that day, and the likely winner in at least a handful of them.

But that might not be good enough. It's important to keep in mind that Obama is the insurgent candidate in the Democratic race; vastly better funded than any previous insurgent and a genuine celebrity to boot, but the insurgent nonetheless. Denying the nomination to Hillary Clinton will require more than trading primary and caucus wins through the winter and early spring.

I mostly agree with this. I would take it one step further and say that tomorrow's Nevada caucus is the crossroads of the 2008 Democratic race and whoever wins will eventually win the nomination.

Clinton and Obama have been traveling up and down the state since NH, and this shows how important they both know this state is in the expectations game. If Obama wins Nevada then SC is not far behind, and these two wins would give him an enormous boost of positive media as we move into Feb. 5.

However, if Clinton wins Nevada this gives her two straight wins and starts to make Iowa look like an aberration. A Nevada win for Hillary could also make African-Americans start to question Obama's national strength and could shake up the race there more than expected.

Polls show Hillary up, but polling a Nevada caucus--where turnout numbers are any body's guess--is useless. Obama's Culinary Union endorsement is a pretty big deal, and probably knocks up to five or six percentage points off Hillary's edge.

I think turnout will be low, probably around 80,000.

My prediction:
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 44%
Edwards: 11%