January 17, 2008

New Florida Poll

I haven't been posting polls since the NH polling disaster. However, I found this poll noteworthy, not necessarily trustworthy.

Strategic Vision Poll(Florida)
Clinton: 45% (-3 from last poll)
Obama: 39% (+8)
Edwards: 11% (+5)

This poll is either completely bogus, or people are moving away from Clinton. Could her relentlessly nasty campaigning have taken its toll on primary voters? We'll see. I'm not convinced.

One other reason there could be movement from Clinton is that normal primary voters are starting to pay attention to the race. This could mean that name recognition matters less for the most recognizable national name, and the relative unknown(Obama) in the race starts to gain traction as general knowledge about their candidacy grows.

Note: Another reason to be skeptical of polls is the recent volatility in the national numbers. Several show Obama within the margin of error of Clinton, and several show Hillary with double-digit leads. Go figure.

(Tip to TPM Election Central)

Posted by Paul Hina at 10:06 AM