Edwards is Out.

Edwards is out. And I'll bet the Clintons are celebrating.

I actually think that this just about ties a ribbon on the race for Clinton. Obama needed Edwards to split the working-class white vote with Clinton.

Even an Edwards endorsement means little at this point.

I hope I'm wrong.

Waiting for Gore

Like me, others are anxiously anticipating a Gore endorsement--this week. Just a guess, but I've got Thursday.
Could Jimmy Carter be far behind?

The Kennedy Endorsement Matters.

The San Francisco Gate endorses Obama.

Toni Morrison, who once famously dubbed Bill Clinton "the first Black President", is now endorsing Obama.

Al Hunt, often a Clinton apologist, writes that they have crossed the line:

Hyperbole is a staple of American political campaigns. Senator Hillary Clinton has crossed the line into distortion.

In recent debates and in an appearance on NBC television's ``Meet the Press,'' she has flagrantly misrepresented her own and her opponents' positions or statements. The general tone, more than any specifics, of the Clinton effort contributed to Barack Obama's stunning 2-to-1 victory over her in the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary this past weekend.

Obama Destroyed Clinton in SC

Obama more than doubled Clinton's votes(55% to 27%) in the SC primary yesterday. A landslide that deserves some great speechifying, and here it is:

On to February 5th.

I said Uncle!

The Democratic Race After Nevada

Even though Obama comes out of Nevada as the winner of delegates, Hillary still gets the win in the press--as she should. However, the waters have been muddied a bit by what is being called in some circles a "split-decision".
And make no mistake about it, delegates are extremely important.

So, what does Nevada mean? Almost nothing. But here are a few quick observations on the state of the race:

1. Hillary is, as of today, the front-runner for the nomination.

2. Hillary's momentum from Nevada was killed by three factors:

A. Her campaigns relentless attack on the Nevada caucus process, belittling the results of the race before they were known.

B. The Obama campaign's brilliant--and quick-- strategy of claiming a delegate victory, effectively deflecting the media narrative from a decisive Hillary win to the topic of delegates.

C. The fact that the caucus was held on a Saturday and opposite the bigger media event of the day, the Republican South Carolina primary.

3. Obama absolutely MUST WIN South Carolina. If he does the race starts back at zero going into the Feb. 5 states. If he doesn't, Hillary starts a sprint toward the nomination.

4. Edwards is officially done. He WILL NOT get the nomination. The longer he stays in, the more he looks like a vanity candidate. There is some talk of him being a kingmaker at the convention, but after the results from yesterday, he may not have enough delegates to swing the race one way or another.

The Importance of Nevada for the Democratic Nomination

This from the New York Observer:

Barack Obama needs Nevada more than Hillary Clinton does.

This is not to say that Saturday's caucuses are do-or-die test for Obama. Even in defeat in Nevada, Obama would be in a strong position to win in South Carolina, the final official Democratic test before February 5. In other words, Obama would still be able to enter "Super-Duper Tuesday" with wins in two of the first four contests, making him plenty viable in the nearly two dozen states that will vote that day, and the likely winner in at least a handful of them.

But that might not be good enough. It's important to keep in mind that Obama is the insurgent candidate in the Democratic race; vastly better funded than any previous insurgent and a genuine celebrity to boot, but the insurgent nonetheless. Denying the nomination to Hillary Clinton will require more than trading primary and caucus wins through the winter and early spring.

I mostly agree with this. I would take it one step further and say that tomorrow's Nevada caucus is the crossroads of the 2008 Democratic race and whoever wins will eventually win the nomination.

Clinton and Obama have been traveling up and down the state since NH, and this shows how important they both know this state is in the expectations game. If Obama wins Nevada then SC is not far behind, and these two wins would give him an enormous boost of positive media as we move into Feb. 5.

However, if Clinton wins Nevada this gives her two straight wins and starts to make Iowa look like an aberration. A Nevada win for Hillary could also make African-Americans start to question Obama's national strength and could shake up the race there more than expected.

Polls show Hillary up, but polling a Nevada caucus--where turnout numbers are any body's guess--is useless. Obama's Culinary Union endorsement is a pretty big deal, and probably knocks up to five or six percentage points off Hillary's edge.

I think turnout will be low, probably around 80,000.

My prediction:
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 44%
Edwards: 11%

New Florida Poll

I haven't been posting polls since the NH polling disaster. However, I found this poll noteworthy, not necessarily trustworthy.

Strategic Vision Poll(Florida)
Clinton: 45% (-3 from last poll)
Obama: 39% (+8)
Edwards: 11% (+5)

This poll is either completely bogus, or people are moving away from Clinton. Could her relentlessly nasty campaigning have taken its toll on primary voters? We'll see. I'm not convinced.

One other reason there could be movement from Clinton is that normal primary voters are starting to pay attention to the race. This could mean that name recognition matters less for the most recognizable national name, and the relative unknown(Obama) in the race starts to gain traction as general knowledge about their candidacy grows.

Note: Another reason to be skeptical of polls is the recent volatility in the national numbers. Several show Obama within the margin of error of Clinton, and several show Hillary with double-digit leads. Go figure.

(Tip to TPM Election Central)

Add One More to Clinton's Unfavorables

I am so utterly disgusted with the Clinton campaign recently that I have not been able to post anything new. It is difficult for me to put new material up when I know that I can not be objective about the Democratic candidates. It is not that I am against supporting a
particular candidate at the expense of another. It is, however, hard for me to trash a candidate that I will later expect myself to support.

That being said, the latest Clinton campaign's smears against Obama have sent me over the edge. They have clearly been making a concerted effort to marginalize Obama as a "black candidate", so that they can do better with white voters who think that a "black candidate" will be more concerned with "black" problems than "white" problems.

I won't go through the litany of things they have done that point to a clear effort to smear Obama's candidacy. Luckily, Jon Taplin has done that for me:

For Hillary to say with a straight face on Meet The Press this morning that she does not want "to inject race or gender" into the campaign is ridiculous. She is asking us to believe that the Clinton Machine is the most undisciplined, out of control campaign in the history of modern politics and that none of the dirty tricks or slander directed at Obama were authorized. Consider just part of the list:Iowa staffers circulating email saying Obama is a Muslim. Bill Shaheen accusing Barack of being a drug dealer. The phony "Iron my shirt" plant followed by tears the next day.Bill calling Obama "a kid" and saying his opposition to the War in Iraq was "a fairytale". Hillary saying Lyndon Johnson did more for the Civil Rights Movement than Martin Luther King. Andy Cuomo saying Obama's appeal was just "shuck and jive".

I for one, believe the Clinton's have built a sophisticated attack machine and that none of these tricks were left to chance.

"And to me, as an African-American," Johnson continued, in remarks noted by ABC News' Eloise Harper, "I am frankly insulted that the Obama campaign would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Hillary and Bill Clinton, who have been deeply and emotionally involved in black issues when Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood that-- I won’t say what he was doing, but he said it in his book."

Johnson went on: "That kind of campaign behavior does not resonate with me, for a guy who says, 'I want to be a reasonable, likable, Sidney Poitier 'Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner.' And I'm thinking, I'm thinking to myself, 'This ain't a movie, Sidney. This is real life.'"

I think the Clintons honestly feel entitled to the presidency--not even just the nomination. It is clear that they have an "how dare you?" attitude about Obama's campaign. They will stop at nothing to get this nomination. They will demolish Obama's political future if they have to and be happy to do it. For them, I think, the ends always justify the means. Yes, they are that Machiavellian.

A Clinton candidacy, I'm afraid, will cause me to be as cynical as I have ever been about politics. They are no better--and I mean this--than Bush when it comes to campaigning. Clearly I think they are a much better alternative to Bush, or any of the current crop of Republicans, when it comes to actually governing, and that is why I will be forced to vote for her if she gets the nomination.

But I desperately hope she doesn't get the nomination. Frankly, I just don't like her very much.

Kerry to Endorse Obama

From the AP:

Barack Obama has won the presidential endorsement of Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats' 2004 nominee who lost to George W. Bush.

Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, plans to announce his support Thursday at a rally at the College of Charleston, said a Democrat familiar with Kerry's decision. The 2004 nominee will argue that Obama can best unite the country and has the potential to create transformational change, the person said.

What Happened in New Hampshire?

How did everyone get it so wrong--including me--in New Hampshire?

Some reasons:
1. Women: They came out strongly in support of Clinton. I 'll call this, "The Tears of a Clown" effect.
2. Independents: There was speculation that Obama would garner up to 70% of independent voters. That was way off. Maybe, people thought he had it sowed up and decided to support McCain in what they perceived as a closer Republican race, but really no one knows.
3. Democrats: There was a huge, record breaking turnout and it looks like big D democrats came out in full force, and these NH Democrats have deep roots in the Clinton history, roots to deep to change.
4. Polls: We trust polls as an indicator of the race. It's the closest thing for those of us not on the ground to an indicator of votes. And they were so far off the mark in a way I have never seen before. This was the biggest disaster for pollsters that I have ever seen.
5. Michael Whouley: The best vote wrangler in modern history. Hillary had him.

All said and done, I have this race changed to a 50/50 race. A week ago, I would have still given Clinton the edge, but now after Iowa, and the flood of media attention, I give Obama enough national credibility to take that edge away. This race will go at least until February 5th and probably beyond.

Note: Edwards is off the map, and risks losing all credibility by staying in the race.

Democratic Primary Rankings

Obama: 65%, +
Obama is just on fire right now. I actually think the front-runner position suits his natural demeanor. He seems to be steady all the time, but particularly unshakable in the front-runner's position. He will most likely win New Hampshire, maybe even by double digits, and then will probably win Nevada and SC. National numbers show that he will probably favor better in the Feb. 5th states.
At the moment there seems no end to his upside.
I give Obama an 85% chance to win New Hampshire(Full Predictions here).
Hillary: 30%, -
Hillary is in a awful position right now. She is behind an amazingly inspirational political movement right now, and the only way she can stop it is to throw cold water on thousands of people's hopes and dreams. She seems all to happy to try and do it.
Think of it, Obama's calling for an end to cynicism, and Hillary is waiting for us all to get cynical again.
I give Hillary a 10% chance to win New Hampshire.
Edwards: 5%, -
Edwards needed Iowa, and he didn't get it. Now, he and his campaign is betting on a Clinton collapse so they can make it a two man race. They feel that they can make a more compelling argument that they are able to create change than Obama. I think, if you see their approaches to change(Obama: Unity, Edwards: Fighting), it is easy to see who would come out on top of a two man race.
I give Edwards a 5% chance to win New Hampshire.

New Hamshire Predictions

New Hampshire Primary Prediction
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 31%
Edwards: 19%
Richardson: 5%

My Wife's Predictions
Obama: 43%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 22%
Richardson: 5%

Note: I think McCain will win on the Republican side, but I think it will be pretty close with Romney. My wife is calling it for McCain as well.

Hillary Clinton's Collapse

There is a hell of a diary up on DailyKos right now about Hillary's collapse.

Here's a taste:

Had Hillary abandoned the insiders and run the campaign she ran in NY in 2000 from her heart, she would have won Iowa and been on the way to winning the Democratic nomination and becoming the next President of the United States. But she chose a different path against her true inner fiber and will one day wake up and regret that decision wholeheartedly.

She chose to continue down the path of Shrum, Brazille, Penn, and other Beltway losers where you try to muddy the differences and hope you end up on the winning side of the 51 percent straw. She chose to smear Obama's 100% pro choice record and now her campaign is attacking the family of Natalie Sarkisyan. She chose wrong.

Definitely worth a read.

Zogby Poll, Obama Still Climbing

Zogby Daily Tracking for NH Primary
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 19%

Note: This is consistent with just about every other poll coming out of New Hampshire.
...And the Clinton campaign is falling apart. Hillary may turn out to represent one of the more dramatic political falls in recent history, even worse than Dean's implosion.

Movement Toward Obama

Zogby NH Daily Tracking Poll
Clinton: 31%
Obama: 30%
Edwards: 20%

This from Zogby:

"Make no mistake about it, there is movement here. Only 50% of this sample is after the Iowa caucus results were known and there has been a 5-point swing on the Democratic side. Clinton started out leading 32% to 26% over Obama and now she is in a dead heat at 31% to 30%. Obama has won in that part of the sample taken since Iowa--and just this past one day alone Obama led by 8 points."

Bill Bradley Endorses Obama

This is pretty big:

Former Sen. Bill Bradley will endorse Sen. Barack Obama in New Hampshire on Monday, ABC News has learned.

A source close to the senator said that he has waited until now to endorse because he wanted to give former Sen. John Edwards a shot in Iowa first.

Big pickup for Obama, and will grab headlines in New Hamspshire.

Obama Up 12 in NH

American Research Group Poll NH
Obama: 38% (+7)
Clinton: 26% (-9)
Edwards: 20% (+5)

This is all on top of the Rasmussen poll that had Obama up 10.

Update: Look at the ARG poll I posted yesterday. What a difference!

Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

Zogby Daily Tracking Poll
Clinton: 32% (unchanged)
Obama: 28% (+2)
Edwards: 20% (unchanged)

This is a four day tracking poll so we won't see the full post-caucus results until election day in New Hampshire. Until then we will see an incremental shift toward Obama, assuming that things stay the same after tonight's debate.

Tonight's debate is really the last place Hillary can seriously stop Obama's momentum.

Note: I'll also post the ARG numbers when they are released later this afternoon.

New Hampshire Tracking Poll

American Research Group Daily New Hampshire Poll
Clinton: 35%
Obama: 31%
Edwards: 15%

This poll was taken before the Iowa Caucus results.

As Eric Kleefeld notes, ARG polls fared badly in Iowa, but they are a New Hampshire firm and so the terrain is much more friendly for them, and it seems they probably have a pretty good idea how to poll the voters there.

On To New Hampshire

Zogby Daily Tracking Poll
Clinton: 32%
Obama: 26%
Edwards: 20%

These results were obviously taken before the Iowa Caucuses. Watch the daily numbers to see the Iowa effect. My guess is that in two days Obama will have as much as a five point lead.

Also, though, watch for Hillary's campaign surrogates to try to crush Obama quickly in New Hampshire. The Clinton Machine is in full attack mode.

Update: If Hillary goes nuclear on Obama then the Democratic Party can kiss all those independents and new voters we saw in Iowa last night goodbye.

Also, if they crush Obama with negative ads and harsh rhetoric, the Clinton campaign will have an extremely difficult time getting her negatives down for the general election.

Headline?

From Mark Halperin's The Page:

Final Caucus Predictions

Iowa Caucus Predictions
Obama: 33%
Edwards: 26%
Clinton: 25%
Others: 16%

And of course I'll leave this up if for any reason you want to come back and laugh, or marvel at my predictive abilities.

Update: I believe turnout will be around 200,000.

Update II(1/03/08 9:39 am) I have amended the results. I had Clinton in second and Edwards at third. But my gut has been telling me for three weeks that Hillary could finish third, and I am going to stick to that. I haven't changed the numbers, just the positions of Clinton and Edwards.

Will Obama Get Biden and Richardson Supporters?

As all of you know by now the Iowa caucuses have a very strange way of picking candidates. If you go to a precinct and stand in your candidates corner and that candidate does not have 15% of the room's support then you either pick another candidate or you leave. This system makes for some interesting back room speculation about deals between low-tier campaigns and top-tier campaigns.

Well, Obama has already received the support of Kucinich's non-viable caucus goers.

And now it sounds like the same might be true with Biden. This from Beverly Davis over at Huffington Post:

"A decision will be made tomorrow about who we'll encourage our supporters to stand behind if we aren't viable in a precinct. Right now, I'd guess Obama gets our support because we're more inline with his vision of foreign policy than any of the other candidates, and besides, we like him and how he's run his campaign."

"Is Biden angling for a Secretary of State position in an Obama Administration?"

The Biden consultant told Offthebus, "Well, Joe would make a great Secretary of State, wouldn't he?"

And maybe even Richardson:

After attending the press party at the Temple for the Performing Arts, I headed over to Dos Rios, to pick up any additional bar talk conversations and dangle the Biden scoop.

Off-the-bus spoke with a national Obama staffer who confirmed, "We've heard that Richardson may also be telling his supporters to caucus for Barack if they aren't viable. Nothing definitive but there's a trend going on," she added with a smile. Ah, that's an understatement.

I will point out though that just because candidate X tells a supporter to caucus for candidate Y should they not get the viable 15%, that does not mean that the supporter will blindly follow their candidate's advice. But it is still another indicator of Obama's momentum heading into tomorrow.

When Netroots Attack

All the top-tier netroots folks on the left have been attacking Obama recently for the most ridiculous reasons imaginable.

I don't want to get into the substance of it because there is very little substance to wade into, but here is a hint of it from Politco's Ben Smith:

The partisan Democratic bloggers have always been suspicious of Obama for the same reasons as Paul Krugman: his resistance to partisan confrontation, and his willingness to go after his rivals from the right on domestic policy.

His pokes at labor-backed 527s, his suggestion that trial lawyer is a dirty word, and his apparent shots at Al Gore and John Kerry have pushed a bunch of bloggers off the fence in the last two days, and--though it's not going to move a whole lot of caucus-goers--it's worth noticing.

And I agree with this assessment of all the attacks from Marc Ambinder:

But here's the question: does Obama care even a sliver that some bloggers and netroots' activists are angry at him? I don't think he does. I don't think his campaign does. I don't even think, -- and I have nothing to base this on -- Obama's own netroots' team does.

I know that I won't be visiting any blog that has trashed Obama unnecessarily. I think they have all been getting love letters from Joe Trippi again, reminding them of the old Dean days. I 'll just wait until their in full blown butt kiss mode before I return.

The Formidable Obama

This from Craig Crawford on Obama:

If Obama wins Iowa by harnessing a dramatic influx of new and non-partisan voters, his bid would instantly be deemed a force of nature, more of a movement than a campaign--and an electable one at that.

There is a meme developing already in the media that Obama is the independent pick for President. Of course, this makes many on the far left lose their minds. Yet, this would be just about the best possible scenario for the Democrats come November. Having a candidate that can appeal to Independents and soft Republicans would be a much better alternative than a polarizing Clinton or an angry Edwards as the candidate.

Also, if Obama defeats the so-called "Clinton Machine" just imagine how formidable he'll be viewed by the media and the electorate. He'll start to look like a winner, while the Republican nominee is going to come out of a field of tired, and worn losers.

Who needs Bloomberg?

Zogby Polls Tighten

Zogby's Daily Tacking of Iowa
Obama: 28%
Clinton: 28%
Edwards: 26%

Just as I expected, the Zogby daily poll tightened today. This is further evidence that Obama's poll numbers were lowered by the holidays. Watch the daily polls tomorrow, if Obama is leading then there is a great chance that Obama wins this thing.

Of course, I am biased toward Obama.

New Iowa Poll

Strategic Vision Iowa Poll
Obama: 32%
Edwards: 29%
Clinton: 27%

Note: Again, I think Obama's poor showing in the polls the week between Christmas and the New Year was completely holiday induced. It will be interesting to see if Zogby's tracking polls start to show that tomorrow and Thursday.

Also, talk about the playing the expectations game. What is up with this from First Read:

He[Clinton Campaign spokesman Jay Carson] said it was important for campaigns to stay in contact with supporters to ensure they still plan to caucus for their candidate. It's especially true when a campaign is relying heavily on first-time caucus-goers. "Sixty percent of our Ones and Twos have never caucused before," said Carson, who noted that was more than any other candidate, as far as they could tell. (Just asking, is Hillary's camp playing the expectations game here?)

It is seriously time to ponder what happens to the Hillary campaign if she finishes third.

One last thing: I believe that the Obama people are leaking to the press that the Des Moines Register poll should be ignored so that they can still try to escape the front-runner label in Iowa. After all, a surprise victory is always a bigger victory in the media.

Oh yea: If my scenario of an Obama win actually plays out then what's the bigger story coming out of Iowa on Thursday? Obama winning? or Hillary losing?

Democratic Primary Rankings

Obama: 45%, +
This is the first time since I have been doing the rankings that Obama has been first. Technically, I have Obama and Clinton tied for the nomination, but Obama gets the edge because of momentum. I think he has the better chance at the nomination, based on the Des Moines Register poll and other campaign chatter I've heard, including this from Mike Allen:

ZEITGEIST: Although it doesn't forecast the result, reporters' bar buzz is that Senator Obama events are packed, young and electric, with cool music, while Senator Clinton events are designed to convey that she is CONFIDENT and COMPOSED. One even had live accordion music. Referring to the elderly voters who are a key part of Clinton's ticket to ride, one seasoned reporter said a Clinton event was like "a walker convention."

Hillary: 45%, -
Hillary is still in a very strong position nationally, but she really is stalled right now. I don't remember her campaign dominating a positive storyline in weeks, and I find it really hard to imagine how she wins a much needed news cycle before caucus night. I give her less of a chance to win Iowa than Obama, but I would still not be surprised to see her win.
I give Hillary a 35% chance to win Iowa.

Edwards: 10%, +/-
Edwards' momentum seems to have been because of bad holiday polling. He really isn't even up in Iowa, where he MUST win. If you ask me today, I would give him a 1 in 5 chance to win Iowa. So, I would be surprised if he won, and even if he did, he doesn't have a campaign beyond Iowa. He will quickly be buried by Clinton and Obama in every single state after the caucus. No matter what happens with Edwards, I will be shocked, absolutely stunned, if he isn't at a podium dropping our of the race on February 6th, or before.
I give Edwards 20% chance to win Iowa.