January 08, 2008

Democratic Primary Rankings

Obama: 65%, +
Obama is just on fire right now. I actually think the front-runner position suits his natural demeanor. He seems to be steady all the time, but particularly unshakable in the front-runner's position. He will most likely win New Hampshire, maybe even by double digits, and then will probably win Nevada and SC. National numbers show that he will probably favor better in the Feb. 5th states.
At the moment there seems no end to his upside.
I give Obama an 85% chance to win New Hampshire(Full Predictions here).
Hillary: 30%, -
Hillary is in a awful position right now. She is behind an amazingly inspirational political movement right now, and the only way she can stop it is to throw cold water on thousands of people's hopes and dreams. She seems all to happy to try and do it.
Think of it, Obama's calling for an end to cynicism, and Hillary is waiting for us all to get cynical again.
I give Hillary a 10% chance to win New Hampshire.
Edwards: 5%, -
Edwards needed Iowa, and he didn't get it. Now, he and his campaign is betting on a Clinton collapse so they can make it a two man race. They feel that they can make a more compelling argument that they are able to create change than Obama. I think, if you see their approaches to change(Obama: Unity, Edwards: Fighting), it is easy to see who would come out on top of a two man race.
I give Edwards a 5% chance to win New Hampshire.

Posted by Paul Hina at 10:06 AM