Pre-Christmas Republican Primary Rankings

Romney: 26%, -
I still believe that Romney is best positioned to get the nomination, but the sooner the voting begins the better for him. He is closer to regaining the lead in Iowa, and he still has a lead--though narrowly--in NH. So, he is still in a pretty good position for the nomination. Giuliani's fall has benefited Romney for some reason, and since Rudy doesn't seem to be picking up any steam, well, it is logical to think Mitt will pick up more supporters. Also, I have heard some commentators, like Chris Matthews and Joe Scarborough, float the idea that a Jeb Bush endorsement could be forthcoming. If that happens, that would be an enormous boost for Romney, in Florida and nationally.
Huckabee: 25%, +/-
Huckabee has been forced to deal with a slew of negative stories about his past record. All in all, though, he still seems fairly unscathed by it all. He still comes off as positive and affable on television, in advertisements, and he got bundles of free ad time everywhere with his Christmas ad and the so-called floating cross controversy. Do you think evangelicals would be put off by a politician using a cross in an ad? Come on. They love it.
However, the bulk of the conservative establishment is going to keep hitting Huckabee and I am not sure I see him remaining in this strong a position for very long.
McCain: 24%, +
The media is proving again that they love themselves some McCain. They have manufactured a McCain surge, and so we have a McCain surge. It is still extremely difficult for me to see McCain doing anything outside of NH. And he is currently running a consistent second in NH. Romney has been up there for months. A poll out today has Romney up by 3, but a previous Gallup poll had him up 7. So, it looks like McCain is gaining there, but he absolutely has to win NH to be taken seriously. Too bad for him, though, he would still have to win more right-wing states, and, by and large, conservatives hate McCain(Public Bush Criticisms, Immigration Reform, Campaign Finance Reform, etc., etc.). I can actually see Huckabee having a clearer path to the nomination than McCain.
But what do I know? The media has enormous influence.
Giuliani: 15%, -
Giuliani is in horrible shape right now. He has been largely under the radar in the news, and when he finally reemerges it is because he is spending the night in the hospital. The hospital visit acts as perfect metaphor for his campaign's ill-health. They are falling more and more by the day, and there is no turnaround in sight. His national numbers, which have always been his strong suit are dropping, and his state numbers are falling right along with them. He campaign better find a big piece of good news, or they might be finished.
Thompson: 5%, -
Oh, Thompson. All you need to know about Thompson's campaign is right here:

Instead, Thompson rode four blocks to the local fire station. Local fire stations always have captive audiences (unless there is a fire).

Inside, Thompson shook a few hands -- there were only about 15 people there -- and then Chief Dan McKenzie handed Thompson the chief's fire hat so Thompson could put it on.

Thompson looked at it with a sour expression on his face.

"I've got a silly hat rule," Thompson said.

In point of fact, the "silly" hat was the one Chief McKenzie wore to fires and I am guessing none of the firefighters in attendance considered it particularly silly, but Thompson was not going to put it on. He just stood there holding it and staring at it.