December 23, 2007

Pre-Christmas Democratic Primary Rankings

Clinton: 46%, -
The Clinton campaign is still in the lead in national polls, and keeping it close in every single state. Her campaign's claim she has been vetted and is therefore the most electable could shift voters to her in the end. This is, after all, what saved John Kerry in 2004. Also, she describes herself as a fighter, and that is certainly true of her campaign. If they go down, they will go down swinging with brass knuckles, all the while biting a chunk out of your ear. I would not be surprised if they have been holding a grenade to throw at Obama in the last week. So, I am giving her an edge--the slimmest of edges.
Obama: 44% +
Obama does not have the same momentum that he had a couple weeks ago, but he still has some steam going. He really does seem to get stronger, more confident, and more forceful as we get closer to the end. He has proved himself to be a good closer. Now, let's see if that momentum translates to actual support. If it does, he can really win this thing.
Remember, if he wins Iowa, then he'll probably get NH and SC. If that all happens the media will be too busy writing Hillary's obituary for her to make a serious comeback in the Super Tuesday states.
Note: Endorsements don't usually sew up the nomination for anyone. Ultimately, they usually have little impact on voters' final choice. However, I believe a Gore endorsement in the closing days would be the exception to that rule.
Edwards: 10%, -
It may seem strange that I lowered Edwards' ranking since last time, especially considering the media's newfound interest in his campaign, but I just don't see his path to the nomination. Like McCain on the Republican side, Edwards essentially has a one state strategy in a National Primary. His campaign is not making headway in any state other than Iowa. Even SC, which is the state where he was born, he is barely in the conversation. McCain has a better chance of benefiting from a one state strategy because of the weak field of Republicans that are running. Edwards does not have that benefit. He is a political star. Unfortunately for him, he is running against the two biggest superstars in contemporary American politics.

Posted by Paul Hina at 10:57 AM