Final Des Moines Register Poll

Final Pre-Caucus Des Moines Register Poll
Obama: 32%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 24%

Update: This is huge for Obama for several reasons.
1. He increased his lead since last poll. Whereas, Clinton and Edwards stayed mostly stagnant.
2. The Des Moines Register is historically the most accurate poll relative to the final caucus results.
3. His campaign needed a boost. They got one.

The December 1st Des Moines Register Poll

Here is the previous Des Moines Register Poll from the beginning of December.

Obama: 28%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 23%

It will be interesting to see how these numbers change in tonight's poll.

Obama Campaign is Confident

The Obama campaign gave a Power Point presentation today to illustrate to the press where they believe they stand.
The desired result of this presentation depends on who you get your news from.

Here is Mark Halperin's take:

Conference call with campaign manager Plouffe, 24-slide powerpoint presentation focus on what Obama's accomplished in Iowa -- but also NH, SC, NV, and Feb. 5 states, citing polls, fundraising, organization, crowd sizes.

Perhaps trying to preempt a poor Iowa showing, Plouffe repeatedly cites "7 against 1" "avalanche" of spending facing Obama by Clinton, Edwards and outside groups backing them.

Here is Ben Smith's view:

The memo argues that public financing means Edwards can't survive to the Democratic National Convention (above), and that Hillary is too disliked to win the general.

Obama is "very well positioned" in Iowa, Plouffe said, but "as you get out of Iowa, we could not be positioned better."

The call has the perhaps useful effect of lowering expectations for Obama in Iowa as well, where, for a moment, polls seemed to make him the clear frontrunner, an expectation that isn't particularly useful.

And Eric Kleefeld says:

In a conference call with reporters this morning, plus a new Powerpoint, the Obama campaign is voicing confidence that they are well positioned to win the early contests, are already picking up steam in the later contests, and that Obama would be the strongest Democratic candidate.

This is the key slide from the presentation to me:

As I've said, turnout is key for Obama and large crowd sizes say one of two things about the strength of his campaign. Either he has a huge number of out-of-state volunteers coming to his events(like Dean in 2004), or he is getting more support than polls suggest.

Watch the entire presentation here.

Update: The campaign, instead of trying to lower expectations, predicted a win in Iowa.

This from Des Moines Register:

Democrat Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters this morning that Obama is positioned to win the Iowa Caucuses.

"We think we're going to enter caucus night with enough supporters identified to win even under the most aggressive scenarios," Plouffe said.

Iowa's Democratic Caucus: 3 Days To Go

Obama
For Obama to win, turnout is key. I have a hunch that the polls since Christmas have unfairly shown him sinking, and this could be because his supporters--young and college educated folks--are much more likely to vacation on the holidays than other campaign supporters.
So, listen close during the evening of the caucuses for talk of big crowds. If there is a huge turnout night then Obama ends up on top.
Edwards
If you believe the momentum story that is building for Edwards then he looks like he is rising. I don't know if this equals a win for him, but I do think a win wouldn't surprise anyone at this point. However, I think it's more likely to see him finish second, leaving whoever finishes third looking pretty haggard coming out of Iowa.
Watch the entrance polls that come out of the caucuses. Edwards could be as much as five points down and still win because of second-choice picks.
I still don't think Edwards can win the nomination. And if he did, the corporate media would quickly eviscerate his anti-corporate message.
Clinton
If Clinton wins it will be because of money, a huge advantage in paid staff, and proof that the Democratic machine in Iowa has enormous sway inside the caucus precincts. I just don't think she is inciting passion in anyone right now.
Has she even had a positive news cycle in the past six weeks?
I would not be surprised at all to see her finish third, and no matter how low her and Bill try to set expectations, the media will portray a third place finish as a sinking ship.

Note: The Des Moines Register poll comes out tonight, and this poll is hugely important in setting up the expectations game for the press. So, I may have an update tonight that completely contradicts all of the above.

Iowa Caucus Weather Update

Iowa Poll: 6 Days Out

Research 2000 Iowa Poll
Democrats
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 29%
Clinton: 28%
Note: A third place finish in Iowa could be the beginning of the end of Hillary's campaign, particularly if Obama finishes first.
I still maintain that Edwards can not win the nomination even if he does win Iowa.

Republicans
Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 27%

From Political Wire:

"There is plenty of room for shifts in the final days before the Jan. 3 caucuses, with 19 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans saying they are likely or very likely to change their minds."

Primary Rankings

I was planning on posting updated primary rankings today. However, with my general distrust of polls conducted near the holidays, and the variable of the Bhutto assassination, I would rather wait a few more days to get a feel for where things are shaking out.

My feeling on the polls is that everyone should hold their breath at least until tomorrow.

And as far as Bhutto is concerned, well, I just don't think it even registers with the majority of voters, and if it does, it probably does not affect how they plan to vote in the primaries. The pundits who say it help this person and hurts this person are just being lazy. It's this kind of knee-jerk, reactionary punditry that turns people off politics.

So, my rankings stay the same as earlier in the week. (The Dem rankings here, The Rep rankings here)

The Weather in Iowa

Weather is extremely important for turnout, and most believe that turnout favors Obama. The best thing about this forcast is that it is skewing upward. When I checked it two days ago, it was a high of 32 and partly cloudy.

Enjoy the Race

Ezra Klein points out something that I think all Democrats should think about when considering this year's primary race:

I think the differences between the candidates are probably smaller than the primary process makes them seem, and that the larger story -- which has, to be sure, a lot to do with the pressure Edwards has exerted -- is the overwhelming progressiveness of the field, and the degree to which all of the major candidates have aligned themselves with liberalism in a way unthinkable even four years ago. I'd hate to see folks get so wrapped up in advocating for one or another candidate that they lose sight of that larger, more hopeful, truth. I remember, in fact, that Kerry's victory in 2004 elicited a somber post from Markos calling this the last gasp of the establishment, and swearing that his support would be grudging and cautious. For Democrats, I don't think that coalescing around 2008's nominee should be anywhere near as painful.

New Caucus/Primary Polls

L.A. Times/Bloomberg Polls for Iowa
Democrats
Clinton: 29%
Obama: 26%
Edwards: 25%
Note: Any and all scenarios involving these three candidates are plausible in Iowa.

Republicans
Huckabee: 36%
Romney: 28%
Note: Everyone else at single digits.

L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll for NH
Democrats
Obama: 32%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 20%
Note: Why are people still talking seriously about Edwards? Yes, he could theoretically win Iowa, but then what?

Republicans
Romney: 34%
McCain: 20%
Giuliani: 17%
Huckabee: 12%
Note: What happened to McCain's "surge"?

8 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

What to watch for:
Negative Ads.
Who is first to go negative(TV, Radio, or Direct Mail), after Christmas?
Do the campaigns do the dirty work?
Or do they count on surrogates(527's and other special interest organizations)?
Note: It looks like Obama is going to be getting hit hard from some of these 527 groups.
Watch how his campaign responds. Do these hurt Obama? or do they hurt the candidates that are being supported by the 527's?
Watch how the media portrays these ads to get an indication of their effectiveness.
So far Obama has felt a little like a teflon candidate--nothing sticks.

Endorsements.
There are a few endorsements to watch for that could make a a major difference.
Three big ones to watch for: Al Gore, Jeb Bush, and John Kerry.
If any these three endorse a candidate, watch how the media frames the story.
Note: Two kingmaker moment to watch: Jeb endorsing Romney.
Gore endorsing Obama.

Closing Arguments.
Watch to see if any campaigns try out a new closing theme.
Does it stick?
Is the media picking it up?
Are crowds responding on the ground to the message?

Crowd Sizes in Iowa.
In 2004, you could see an Edwards and Kerry surge, not just in the polls, but by the increase in their crowd sizes.
Note: Some of this is happening for Edwards right now.

Polls.
Polls released in the past three or four days should not be trusted.
Polls released in the next couple of days should not trusted. These polls will be skewed by the holidays.
Polls released this weekend will give us a good indication of how the race is crystallizing.

Al Hunt's Must-Read Column on '08 Election

This from Hunt:

The gates are about to open for the U.S. presidential race. The early odds, if history is an indicator, will be close to the mark.

Looking at bookmakers in Las Vegas and London, and the crystal balls of a few seasoned political practitioners from both parties, a clear line has emerged.

First are the elements of a Democratic year. Pay less attention to the close general-election trial heats; they are lagging indicators as Ronald Reagan, circa December 1979, and Bill Clinton, circa December 1991, could have told you.

The fundamentals -- the country's mood, the political cycle, the likely shape of the economy, and the movement of certain constituencies such as Hispanics and young voters -- all tilt Democratic.

Thus, lay down 7-to-win-5 on a Democrat taking the presidential oath of office 13 months from now, 2-to-1 that it's a Republican, and 20-to-1 an independent or third-party candidate.

This is a must-read piece for anyone who wants to get a quick indication of the lay of the political land right now.

Pre-Christmas Democratic Primary Rankings

Clinton: 46%, -
The Clinton campaign is still in the lead in national polls, and keeping it close in every single state. Her campaign's claim she has been vetted and is therefore the most electable could shift voters to her in the end. This is, after all, what saved John Kerry in 2004. Also, she describes herself as a fighter, and that is certainly true of her campaign. If they go down, they will go down swinging with brass knuckles, all the while biting a chunk out of your ear. I would not be surprised if they have been holding a grenade to throw at Obama in the last week. So, I am giving her an edge--the slimmest of edges.
Obama: 44% +
Obama does not have the same momentum that he had a couple weeks ago, but he still has some steam going. He really does seem to get stronger, more confident, and more forceful as we get closer to the end. He has proved himself to be a good closer. Now, let's see if that momentum translates to actual support. If it does, he can really win this thing.
Remember, if he wins Iowa, then he'll probably get NH and SC. If that all happens the media will be too busy writing Hillary's obituary for her to make a serious comeback in the Super Tuesday states.
Note: Endorsements don't usually sew up the nomination for anyone. Ultimately, they usually have little impact on voters' final choice. However, I believe a Gore endorsement in the closing days would be the exception to that rule.
Edwards: 10%, -
It may seem strange that I lowered Edwards' ranking since last time, especially considering the media's newfound interest in his campaign, but I just don't see his path to the nomination. Like McCain on the Republican side, Edwards essentially has a one state strategy in a National Primary. His campaign is not making headway in any state other than Iowa. Even SC, which is the state where he was born, he is barely in the conversation. McCain has a better chance of benefiting from a one state strategy because of the weak field of Republicans that are running. Edwards does not have that benefit. He is a political star. Unfortunately for him, he is running against the two biggest superstars in contemporary American politics.

Pre-Christmas Republican Primary Rankings

Romney: 26%, -
I still believe that Romney is best positioned to get the nomination, but the sooner the voting begins the better for him. He is closer to regaining the lead in Iowa, and he still has a lead--though narrowly--in NH. So, he is still in a pretty good position for the nomination. Giuliani's fall has benefited Romney for some reason, and since Rudy doesn't seem to be picking up any steam, well, it is logical to think Mitt will pick up more supporters. Also, I have heard some commentators, like Chris Matthews and Joe Scarborough, float the idea that a Jeb Bush endorsement could be forthcoming. If that happens, that would be an enormous boost for Romney, in Florida and nationally.
Huckabee: 25%, +/-
Huckabee has been forced to deal with a slew of negative stories about his past record. All in all, though, he still seems fairly unscathed by it all. He still comes off as positive and affable on television, in advertisements, and he got bundles of free ad time everywhere with his Christmas ad and the so-called floating cross controversy. Do you think evangelicals would be put off by a politician using a cross in an ad? Come on. They love it.
However, the bulk of the conservative establishment is going to keep hitting Huckabee and I am not sure I see him remaining in this strong a position for very long.
McCain: 24%, +
The media is proving again that they love themselves some McCain. They have manufactured a McCain surge, and so we have a McCain surge. It is still extremely difficult for me to see McCain doing anything outside of NH. And he is currently running a consistent second in NH. Romney has been up there for months. A poll out today has Romney up by 3, but a previous Gallup poll had him up 7. So, it looks like McCain is gaining there, but he absolutely has to win NH to be taken seriously. Too bad for him, though, he would still have to win more right-wing states, and, by and large, conservatives hate McCain(Public Bush Criticisms, Immigration Reform, Campaign Finance Reform, etc., etc.). I can actually see Huckabee having a clearer path to the nomination than McCain.
But what do I know? The media has enormous influence.
Giuliani: 15%, -
Giuliani is in horrible shape right now. He has been largely under the radar in the news, and when he finally reemerges it is because he is spending the night in the hospital. The hospital visit acts as perfect metaphor for his campaign's ill-health. They are falling more and more by the day, and there is no turnaround in sight. His national numbers, which have always been his strong suit are dropping, and his state numbers are falling right along with them. He campaign better find a big piece of good news, or they might be finished.
Thompson: 5%, -
Oh, Thompson. All you need to know about Thompson's campaign is right here:

Instead, Thompson rode four blocks to the local fire station. Local fire stations always have captive audiences (unless there is a fire).

Inside, Thompson shook a few hands -- there were only about 15 people there -- and then Chief Dan McKenzie handed Thompson the chief's fire hat so Thompson could put it on.

Thompson looked at it with a sour expression on his face.

"I've got a silly hat rule," Thompson said.

In point of fact, the "silly" hat was the one Chief McKenzie wore to fires and I am guessing none of the firefighters in attendance considered it particularly silly, but Thompson was not going to put it on. He just stood there holding it and staring at it.

Will Gore Endorse Obama?

This from Hotline:

"I talk to Al Gore about every three weeks, and we're going to make sure that your home at the North Pole is still available to you," Obama said, reports NBC/NJ's Erin McPike.

Wow!

That could mean something...
or not.

It would be great, though.

Chris Matthews Calls Obama's Mother a Muslim

I just heard Chris Matthews say, on Tonight's Hardball on MSNBC, that Obama's mother and maternal grandmother were muslims.

Neither is true.

Watch the clip here(at 5:00 minutes in and again at 7:10).

As soon as the transcripts are available, I will post them.

Caucus Predictions

Caucus Predictions(12/20/2007)
Obama: 35%
Clintion: 33%
Edwards: 32%

Note: Bigger turnout helps Obama. So, watch the weather. If the weather is good, there will be record numbers for the caucuses.

Also, as a matter of full disclosure, I am supporting Obama.

However, until this past week or so, I would have said that my second choice was Hillary Clinton.

Not anymore.

Her campaign has proven to be far more dirty than any I would like to support.

That being said, I will support her is she is the nominee, but I hope it doesn't come to that.

Edwards is now my second choice.

I will not vote for Hillary in my primary.

Political Blogs Seem To Be Slowing Down

All the political blogs seem to be slowing down for the holidays. I think this is a pretty good indicator that the political season is coming to close for at least a week--maybe longer.

I had previously said that I thought the race would pretty much stay where it was right before the holidays. I still believe that, mostly, but I would add the caveat that the races are so absurdly close right now that any news cycle could change the narrative--just the way the media likes to construct these things.

So, what do we know today?

Iowa
Democrats: 3-way race in Iowa

Republicans: 2-way race(Huckabee and Romney)

New Hampshire
Democrats: 2-way race(Clinton and Obama). Probably decided by results of Iowa.

Republicans: 2-way race(Romney and McCain). Dependent on Romney's Iowa result.

I will put new primary rankings up today and tomorrow.

Hillary's Electability Issues

We have been told over and over again about Hillary has been vetted. Well, maybe not fully vetted:

Since they left the White House in 2001, Bill and Hillary Clinton have been under the protection of the Secret Service, formerly a branch of the Treasury Department and now part of the Homeland Security Department. Records are maintained showing where they go and whom they meet.

Homeland Security is under the control of Michael Chertoff, a longtime Clinton nemesis dating back to his work as a Republican lawyer on the Senate's Whitewater investigation in the 1990s. In 2003, Sen. Clinton cast the sole dissenting vote against Chertoff's nomination as a federal judge in protest against his abrasive conduct during the Whitewater inquiry.

Though Secret Service records are supposed to be closely held secrets, a source close to the Clintons told me that it is believed that senior Republicans have received regular briefings about movements of the Clintons that might prove embarrassing if released during the general election campaign.

I'm not sure that this is going to become big news, but it certainly seems big to me. To me, this cuts right into her electability rationale.

Iowa Polling is Useless

Rasmussen Poll in Iowa
Clinton: 31%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 22%

Three polls in three days with three different results. Sound about right. No one knows what the hell is going on.

Hillary Back On Top In NH

Last week's CNN/NH poll had Clinton up by 1%. This week's:

Clinton: 38%
Obama: 26%
Edwards: 14%

What happened since that last poll was taken? Wasn't there a drug reference "accidentally" uttered by a prominent NH pol?

Who says smears aren't effective?

Note: Even if Edwards were to win Iowa, I don't think that any Iowa bump he might get would be substantial enough to overcome his double-digit deficits in NH. I know the media wants to push him into a viable position, but I still don't see it.

Who is up in Iowa?

ABC/Washington Post Poll in Iowa
Democrats
Obama:33%
Hillary: 29%
Edwards: 20%

Obama even leads in the all-important second choice category:

Obama: 37%
Clinton: 31%
Edwards: 26%

Who knows what polls to believe right now? I will say that the Insider Advantage poll from yesterday really seems to have been way off the mark, though.

Does all this put an end to the Edwards' momentum story? No, the media loves to insert itself too much. This week they have collectively decided to push Edwards and McCain.

Edwards Up in Iowa?

A new Insider Advantage poll tonight perpetuates the media's meme that Edwards has momentum in Iowa.

Here are the numbers:

Edwards: 30%
Obama: 26%
Clinton: 24%

Seems like a pretty big swing toward Edwards from other polls, right? Well, two problems. First, this is the first time Insider Advantage has ever polled in Iowa, a state that is very difficult to poll because of the caucus format. Also, there is this from Open Left:

Why is this survey more favorable to Edwards? It could be because of an Edwards surge, but it could also be the result of the poll projecting that only one in eight caucus goers will be under the age of 45. Not only is that wildly inconsistent with 2004 entrance survey results for Iowa which indicated one in three caucus goers were under the page of 45, but it is also certain to drag down Obama's numbers given that he has consistently performed well among younger voters.

Call me if another--just one more--poll shows Edwards up in Iowa.

Obama Is Electable

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Clinton vs. Top Republicans
Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 48%
Clinton (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 46%

Obama vs. Top Republicans
Obama (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Obama (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 42%
Obama (D) 57%, Romney (R) 39%

(Tip to TPM Election Central)

Obama Closing In On Clinton

New Diageo/Hotline National Poll
Democrats
Clinton: 35%
Obama: 30%

Republican
Giuliani: 21%
Huckabee: 17%
Romney: 13%

The rest of the numbers were not released yet, but these numbers are so close that they make me skeptical.

Democratic Primary Rankings

Clinton: 46%, -
The Clinton campaign has gotten pretty nasty lately, and this does not help the already cold perception that people have of her. They are going hard at Obama through Bill Clinton, Bob Kerrey, and other surrogates. It is too early to tell if this has more of a negative effect on her or Obama, but it certainly doesn't help her image overall.
The Des Moines Register endorsement keeps her hopes alive in Iowa, but that has been about the only good news she has gotten in the last few weeks. I still think she is best positioned to win the nomination, but a win for Obama in Iowa would change the race in a hurry.
Obama: 40%, +/-
I don't think Obama has done anything to help himself, or to hurt himself, since my last rankings. So, he is still in a pretty admirable position. It's not necessarily a bad thing to be a slight underdog in the homestretch, especially if you end up winning the first few states. The media loves an underdog story, and I think if Obama wins Iowa and NH then the media could potentially bury Hillary in bad press.
Edwards: 14%, +
Edwards is finally starting to get some press attention. He gets the cover of Newsweek and some pundits are whispering that his support in rural Iowa, and high support from the second-choicers in the caucuses could set him up for an Iowa upset. If there is one thing Edwards understands it is the boost you get from a big Iowa finish.

Note: I still think this is pretty much the final full week of the campaign. The early caucuses really hamper the campaigns because of the holidays. It is hard to imagine people want to watch negative ads during the holidays. So, expect serious jabbing this week.

Of course, the candidates will be back on the trail the day after Christmas, but how much will voters want to listen. I have a feeling the campaigns have this week and then it's not until January 2nd that you get full voter attention back on the campaign. Iowa caucuses are January 3rd.

This week may end up being the most important week of the primaries.

Is Bill Clinton Off His Game?

Bill Clinton is, to my mind, the best natural politician of my lifetime. I have never seen anyone come near his level in communicating to people in that elusive combination of intelligence and warmth.

Lately, though, his message is not getting across so easily.

The media salivated when he said that he "opposed Iraq from the beginning." I thought that point was debatable. I think he was against going in when we did. He was on record saying that he thought we should give the UN inspectors more time, but he didn't clearly oppose the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Then people have been going crazy about his Charlie Rose appearance last Friday, when he said voting for Obama would be like, "rolling the dice." I actually think this was more an example of his political skill and less an example of his possible liabilities.

But this, well, this is bad:

"Well, the first thing she intends to do, because you can do this without passing a bill," Bill told reporters during a stop in South Carolina, "the first thing she intends to do is to send me and former President Bush and a number of other people around the world to tell them that America is open for business and cooperation again."

Why would you mention George H.W. Bush by name? That is just completely tone-deaf. First, why would Bush 41 agree to travel the country to repair the damage done by Bush 43? That would be a tacit admission of his son's failures. Secondly, Bush is not a name you want to mention as an ally when campaigning in a Democratic primary.

It's hard to see how the media does not jump all over this quote tomorrow, and this is the last thing the Clinton campaign needed right now. They were just starting to get their footing back after a couple of bad weeks.

Will Al Gore Endorse in 2008?

There are a few big Democratic endorsements left to be had in 2008.

The biggest endorsement would be from Al Gore, but I find it hard to believe that he will endorse anyone after the pummeling he took after endorsing Dean in 2004. However, if he did endorse, it would surprise me to see him endorse Hillary. It would be hard to hear the countless reports of their frosty relationship and not take them seriously. Still, though, it is hard to imagine Gore wanting to endorse a candidate that he doesn't see winning(read Edwards). So, that leaves Obama--if he endorses, which I don't think he will.

Another big endorsement would be from John Kerry. Kerry is the kind of guy that has trouble staying off the stage. It would not be surprising to see him endorse someone soon. I don't think he'll endorse Edwards. There seems to have been some bad blood between them since 2004--something about Edwards refusing to attack Bush and Cheney.
Who would Kerry pick, Hillary or Obama? I really don't have the faintest idea.

Tom Harkin is a big Iowa endorsement, probably the biggest Democratic name in Iowa. His wife has already endorsed Hillary. This is a pretty good sign that Hillary is holding Harkin in her back pocket, waiting for the perfect moment to unleash his support.
That being said, Harkin was also burned by endorsing Dean in 2004. So, he might be considering sitting this one out.

The liberal lion, Ted Kennedy, has not endorsed anyone. I watched him the other night on Bloomberg's Political Capital, and he wasn't showing his hand. Many of his colleagues are running this time around, and I could see him deciding not to enter the fray for this reason. It would be better to not endorse then to burn the political bridges to several of your friends and colleagues.

Bill Clinton is Factually Challenged

Bill Clinton from Charlie Rose:

"...And what we want is somebody who started running for president a year after he became senator because he's fresh, he's new, he's never made a mistake, and he has massive political skills. And we're willing to risk it,'" Clinton told Rose.

Clinton must have said this about Obama four or five times during the interview. I have yet to see someone call him on this misstatement. Obama was elected in 2004. He was sworn in at the very beginning of 2005. He didn't announce he was running for President until January of 2007. How is that one year? Why isn't anyone calling Clinton's bluff on this?

Clinton Campaign: As Nasty As They Wanna Be

This from Mike Allen's Playbook:

So why did former U.S. senator Bob Kerrey — in endorsing Senator CLINTON in Council Bluffs, Iowa, yesterday, — refer to the junior senator from Illinois as "Barack Hussein Obama"?

As quoted by the WashPost's Shailagh Murray: "I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim. There's a billion people on the planet that are Muslims and I think that experience is a big deal.")

The press corps, which had dinner in Des Moines with Clinton Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle and other HRC honchos, is abuzz. (About the "Hussein" thing, not the charm offensive.

My understanding was that Kerrey was heavily scripted by the Clinton campaign at his campaign stops this weekend. Bob Kerrey is known for running his mouth a little too much, but this behavior seems indicative of the Clinton campaign. They send out a surrogate to say something awful about Obama, and then they praise him in an underhanded way or veil their nastiness in phony concern.

Mark my words, though, this was a coordinated effort.

Nothing, at this point, that the Clinton campaign does will surprise me. They are Bush league dirty. This kind of stuff is right out of the Rovian playbook.

UPDATE: I feel like I need to say that the Clinton campaign's willingness to be dirty will be an asset in the general election. In order to beat the Republicans you will have to be dirty, they certainly will be. My issue is with the level of nastiness that they are shoveling at other Democrats.

Republican Presidential Rankings

Romney: 27%, -
I knocked Romney down a few percentage points only because he has been consistently down in Iowa, and this makes many states--after a New Hampshire win--more uncertain. Romney's campaign realizes how important Iowa and New Hampshire are for big momentum heading into the rest of the states. The media will immediately jump on for a ride toward history, and you get the lion's share of the press. This is why Romney has started going after Huckabee. He knows he needs Iowa. It is not a necessity, but it makes his path to the nomination much easier.
Huckabee: 25%, -
I've also knocked Huckabee down a few points. He is still polling very well, leading in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida.
But...
Conservatives are apoplectic about the prospects of his nomination. His support is almost entirely evangelical, and the conservatives are finally having to reap all the lunacy they have sown these past thirty years.
Plus, it seems like a new story is coming out everyday that further damages his prospects. Like:
He doesn't have a theology degree, even though he has been saying he has for years.
He accepted large gifts and donations as Governor that landed the contributors into state jobs.
And his 17 year-old son brutally murdered a stray dog.
All of this adds up to an increasingly troubling prospect for the Republican party. They are already going to have a rough time at the polls next November, and Huckabee might just sink the party. Question is: Do evangelicals care? I don't think they do, and I don't think these stories are being covered enough that they won't fall through the cracks of an ignorant evangelical electorate.
McCain: 20%, +
McCain's chances seem to be increasing as all the other candidates seem to be self-destructing. New Hampshire is his best hope, and yet Romney seems to have NH in control. Besides, McCain really isn't running a very good campaign, and he is not going to catch fire anytime soon. But if this race becomes about electability then I think he gets a boost. He is clearly the most electable Republican right now. All the other serious candidates have serious negatives.
However, McCain is not without his negatives. He is seventy-two, and, since Reagan, age has to be taken into consideration. Also, he has a reputation of being too quick to anger. Not to mention the fact that most Republicans hate him.
Giuliani: 20%, -
Boy, how far the mighty have fallen. Giuliani is just dying. He is getting almost no press but bad press, and his time is running out. He was counting on the big states to send him over the top, with Florida being his firewall. Now, though, he is third in Florida. His only hope is that Romney flames out in Iowa, and that the Huckabee panic goes widespread.
Thompson: 8%, +
Thomson goes up because with this field of candidates even the turds rise.