Final Des Moines Register Poll

Final Pre-Caucus Des Moines Register Poll
Obama: 32%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 24%

Update: This is huge for Obama for several reasons.
1. He increased his lead since last poll. Whereas, Clinton and Edwards stayed mostly stagnant.
2. The Des Moines Register is historically the most accurate poll relative to the final caucus results.
3. His campaign needed a boost. They got one.

The December 1st Des Moines Register Poll

Here is the previous Des Moines Register Poll from the beginning of December.

Obama: 28%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 23%

It will be interesting to see how these numbers change in tonight's poll.

Obama Campaign is Confident

The Obama campaign gave a Power Point presentation today to illustrate to the press where they believe they stand.
The desired result of this presentation depends on who you get your news from.

Here is Mark Halperin's take:

Conference call with campaign manager Plouffe, 24-slide powerpoint presentation focus on what Obama's accomplished in Iowa -- but also NH, SC, NV, and Feb. 5 states, citing polls, fundraising, organization, crowd sizes.

Perhaps trying to preempt a poor Iowa showing, Plouffe repeatedly cites "7 against 1" "avalanche" of spending facing Obama by Clinton, Edwards and outside groups backing them.

Here is Ben Smith's view:

The memo argues that public financing means Edwards can't survive to the Democratic National Convention (above), and that Hillary is too disliked to win the general.

Obama is "very well positioned" in Iowa, Plouffe said, but "as you get out of Iowa, we could not be positioned better."

The call has the perhaps useful effect of lowering expectations for Obama in Iowa as well, where, for a moment, polls seemed to make him the clear frontrunner, an expectation that isn't particularly useful.

And Eric Kleefeld says:

In a conference call with reporters this morning, plus a new Powerpoint, the Obama campaign is voicing confidence that they are well positioned to win the early contests, are already picking up steam in the later contests, and that Obama would be the strongest Democratic candidate.

This is the key slide from the presentation to me:

As I've said, turnout is key for Obama and large crowd sizes say one of two things about the strength of his campaign. Either he has a huge number of out-of-state volunteers coming to his events(like Dean in 2004), or he is getting more support than polls suggest.

Watch the entire presentation here.

Update: The campaign, instead of trying to lower expectations, predicted a win in Iowa.

This from Des Moines Register:

Democrat Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters this morning that Obama is positioned to win the Iowa Caucuses.

"We think we're going to enter caucus night with enough supporters identified to win even under the most aggressive scenarios," Plouffe said.

Iowa's Democratic Caucus: 3 Days To Go

Obama
For Obama to win, turnout is key. I have a hunch that the polls since Christmas have unfairly shown him sinking, and this could be because his supporters--young and college educated folks--are much more likely to vacation on the holidays than other campaign supporters.
So, listen close during the evening of the caucuses for talk of big crowds. If there is a huge turnout night then Obama ends up on top.
Edwards
If you believe the momentum story that is building for Edwards then he looks like he is rising. I don't know if this equals a win for him, but I do think a win wouldn't surprise anyone at this point. However, I think it's more likely to see him finish second, leaving whoever finishes third looking pretty haggard coming out of Iowa.
Watch the entrance polls that come out of the caucuses. Edwards could be as much as five points down and still win because of second-choice picks.
I still don't think Edwards can win the nomination. And if he did, the corporate media would quickly eviscerate his anti-corporate message.
Clinton
If Clinton wins it will be because of money, a huge advantage in paid staff, and proof that the Democratic machine in Iowa has enormous sway inside the caucus precincts. I just don't think she is inciting passion in anyone right now.
Has she even had a positive news cycle in the past six weeks?
I would not be surprised at all to see her finish third, and no matter how low her and Bill try to set expectations, the media will portray a third place finish as a sinking ship.

Note: The Des Moines Register poll comes out tonight, and this poll is hugely important in setting up the expectations game for the press. So, I may have an update tonight that completely contradicts all of the above.

Iowa Caucus Weather Update

Iowa Poll: 6 Days Out

Research 2000 Iowa Poll
Democrats
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 29%
Clinton: 28%
Note: A third place finish in Iowa could be the beginning of the end of Hillary's campaign, particularly if Obama finishes first.
I still maintain that Edwards can not win the nomination even if he does win Iowa.

Republicans
Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 27%

From Political Wire:

"There is plenty of room for shifts in the final days before the Jan. 3 caucuses, with 19 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans saying they are likely or very likely to change their minds."

Primary Rankings

I was planning on posting updated primary rankings today. However, with my general distrust of polls conducted near the holidays, and the variable of the Bhutto assassination, I would rather wait a few more days to get a feel for where things are shaking out.

My feeling on the polls is that everyone should hold their breath at least until tomorrow.

And as far as Bhutto is concerned, well, I just don't think it even registers with the majority of voters, and if it does, it probably does not affect how they plan to vote in the primaries. The pundits who say it help this person and hurts this person are just being lazy. It's this kind of knee-jerk, reactionary punditry that turns people off politics.

So, my rankings stay the same as earlier in the week. (The Dem rankings here, The Rep rankings here)

The Weather in Iowa

Image taken from Weather.com

Weather is extremely important for turnout, and most believe that turnout favors Obama. The best thing about this forcast is that it is skewing upward. When I checked it two days ago, it was a high of 32 and partly cloudy.

Enjoy the Race

Ezra Klein points out something that I think all Democrats should think about when considering this year's primary race:

I think the differences between the candidates are probably smaller than the primary process makes them seem, and that the larger story -- which has, to be sure, a lot to do with the pressure Edwards has exerted -- is the overwhelming progressiveness of the field, and the degree to which all of the major candidates have aligned themselves with liberalism in a way unthinkable even four years ago. I'd hate to see folks get so wrapped up in advocating for one or another candidate that they lose sight of that larger, more hopeful, truth. I remember, in fact, that Kerry's victory in 2004 elicited a somber post from Markos calling this the last gasp of the establishment, and swearing that his support would be grudging and cautious. For Democrats, I don't think that coalescing around 2008's nominee should be anywhere near as painful.

New Caucus/Primary Polls

L.A. Times/Bloomberg Polls for Iowa
Democrats
Clinton: 29%
Obama: 26%
Edwards: 25%
Note: Any and all scenarios involving these three candidates are plausible in Iowa.

Republicans
Huckabee: 36%
Romney: 28%
Note: Everyone else at single digits.

L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll for NH
Democrats
Obama: 32%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 20%
Note: Why are people still talking seriously about Edwards? Yes, he could theoretically win Iowa, but then what?

Republicans
Romney: 34%
McCain: 20%
Giuliani: 17%
Huckabee: 12%
Note: What happened to McCain's "surge"?

8 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

What to watch for:
Negative Ads.
Who is first to go negative(TV, Radio, or Direct Mail), after Christmas?
Do the campaigns do the dirty work?
Or do they count on surrogates(527's and other special interest organizations)?
Note: It looks like Obama is going to be getting hit hard from some of these 527 groups.
Watch how his campaign responds. Do these hurt Obama? or do they hurt the candidates that are being supported by the 527's?
Watch how the media portrays these ads to get an indication of their effectiveness.
So far Obama has felt a little like a teflon candidate--nothing sticks.

Endorsements.
There are a few endorsements to watch for that could make a a major difference.
Three big ones to watch for: Al Gore, Jeb Bush, and John Kerry.
If any these three endorse a candidate, watch how the media frames the story.
Note: Two kingmaker moment to watch: Jeb endorsing Romney.
Gore endorsing Obama.

Closing Arguments.
Watch to see if any campaigns try out a new closing theme.
Does it stick?
Is the media picking it up?
Are crowds responding on the ground to the message?

Crowd Sizes in Iowa.
In 2004, you could see an Edwards and Kerry surge, not just in the polls, but by the increase in their crowd sizes.
Note: Some of this is happening for Edwards right now.

Polls.
Polls released in the past three or four days should not be trusted.
Polls released in the next couple of days should not trusted. These polls will be skewed by the holidays.
Polls released this weekend will give us a good indication of how the race is crystallizing.

Al Hunt's Must-Read Column on '08 Election

This from Hunt:

The gates are about to open for the U.S. presidential race. The early odds, if history is an indicator, will be close to the mark.

Looking at bookmakers in Las Vegas and London, and the crystal balls of a few seasoned political practitioners from both parties, a clear line has emerged.

First are the elements of a Democratic year. Pay less attention to the close general-election trial heats; they are lagging indicators as Ronald Reagan, circa December 1979, and Bill Clinton, circa December 1991, could have told you.

The fundamentals -- the country's mood, the political cycle, the likely shape of the economy, and the movement of certain constituencies such as Hispanics and young voters -- all tilt Democratic.

Thus, lay down 7-to-win-5 on a Democrat taking the presidential oath of office 13 months from now, 2-to-1 that it's a Republican, and 20-to-1 an independent or third-party candidate.

This is a must-read piece for anyone who wants to get a quick indication of the lay of the political land right now.

Pre-Christmas Democratic Primary Rankings

Clinton: 46%, -
The Clinton campaign is still in the lead in national polls, and keeping it close in every single state. Her campaign's claim she has been vetted and is therefore the most electable could shift voters to her in the end. This is, after all, what saved John Kerry in 2004. Also, she describes herself as a fighter, and that is certainly true of her campaign. If they go down, they will go down swinging with brass knuckles, all the while biting a chunk out of your ear. I would not be surprised if they have been holding a grenade to throw at Obama in the last week. So, I am giving her an edge--the slimmest of edges.
Obama: 44% +
Obama does not have the same momentum that he had a couple weeks ago, but he still has some steam going. He really does seem to get stronger, more confident, and more forceful as we get closer to the end. He has proved himself to be a good closer. Now, let's see if that momentum translates to actual support. If it does, he can really win this thing.
Remember, if he wins Iowa, then he'll probably get NH and SC. If that all happens the media will be too busy writing Hillary's obituary for her to make a serious comeback in the Super Tuesday states.
Note: Endorsements don't usually sew up the nomination for anyone. Ultimately, they usually have little impact on voters' final choice. However, I believe a Gore endorsement in the closing days would be the exception to that rule.
Edwards: 10%, -
It may seem strange that I lowered Edwards' ranking since last time, especially considering the media's newfound interest in his campaign, but I just don't see his path to the nomination. Like McCain on the Republican side, Edwards essentially has a one state strategy in a National Primary. His campaign is not making headway in any state other than Iowa. Even SC, which is the state where he was born, he is barely in the conversation. McCain has a better chance of benefiting from a one state strategy because of the weak field of Republicans that are running. Edwards does not have that benefit. He is a political star. Unfortunately for him, he is running against the two biggest superstars in contemporary American politics.

Pre-Christmas Republican Primary Rankings

Romney: 26%, -
I still believe that Romney is best positioned to get the nomination, but the sooner the voting begins the better for him. He is closer to regaining the lead in Iowa, and he still has a lead--though narrowly--in NH. So, he is still in a pretty good position for the nomination. Giuliani's fall has benefited Romney for some reason, and since Rudy doesn't seem to be picking up any steam, well, it is logical to think Mitt will pick up more supporters. Also, I have heard some commentators, like Chris Matthews and Joe Scarborough, float the idea that a Jeb Bush endorsement could be forthcoming. If that happens, that would be an enormous boost for Romney, in Florida and nationally.
Huckabee: 25%, +/-
Huckabee has been forced to deal with a slew of negative stories about his past record. All in all, though, he still seems fairly unscathed by it all. He still comes off as positive and affable on television, in advertisements, and he got bundles of free ad time everywhere with his Christmas ad and the so-called floating cross controversy. Do you think evangelicals would be put off by a politician using a cross in an ad? Come on. They love it.
However, the bulk of the conservative establishment is going to keep hitting Huckabee and I am not sure I see him remaining in this strong a position for very long.
McCain: 24%, +
The media is proving again that they love themselves some McCain. They have manufactured a McCain surge, and so we have a McCain surge. It is still extremely difficult for me to see McCain doing anything outside of NH. And he is currently running a consistent second in NH. Romney has been up there for months. A poll out today has Romney up by 3, but a previous Gallup poll had him up 7. So, it looks like McCain is gaining there, but he absolutely has to win NH to be taken seriously. Too bad for him, though, he would still have to win more right-wing states, and, by and large, conservatives hate McCain(Public Bush Criticisms, Immigration Reform, Campaign Finance Reform, etc., etc.). I can actually see Huckabee having a clearer path to the nomination than McCain.
But what do I know? The media has enormous influence.
Giuliani: 15%, -
Giuliani is in horrible shape right now. He has been largely under the radar in the news, and when he finally reemerges it is because he is spending the night in the hospital. The hospital visit acts as perfect metaphor for his campaign's ill-health. They are falling more and more by the day, and there is no turnaround in sight. His national numbers, which have always been his strong suit are dropping, and his state numbers are falling right along with them. He campaign better find a big piece of good news, or they might be finished.
Thompson: 5%, -
Oh, Thompson. All you need to know about Thompson's campaign is right here:

Instead, Thompson rode four blocks to the local fire station. Local fire stations always have captive audiences (unless there is a fire).

Inside, Thompson shook a few hands -- there were only about 15 people there -- and then Chief Dan McKenzie handed Thompson the chief's fire hat so Thompson could put it on.

Thompson looked at it with a sour expression on his face.

"I've got a silly hat rule," Thompson said.

In point of fact, the "silly" hat was the one Chief McKenzie wore to fires and I am guessing none of the firefighters in attendance considered it particularly silly, but Thompson was not going to put it on. He just stood there holding it and staring at it.

Will Gore Endorse Obama?

This from Hotline:

"I talk to Al Gore about every three weeks, and we're going to make sure that your home at the North Pole is still available to you," Obama said, reports NBC/NJ's Erin McPike.

Wow!

That could mean something...
or not.

It would be great, though.

Chris Matthews Calls Obama's Mother a Muslim

I just heard Chris Matthews say, on Tonight's Hardball on MSNBC, that Obama's mother and maternal grandmother were muslims.

Neither is true.

Watch the clip here(at 5:00 minutes in and again at 7:10).

As soon as the transcripts are available, I will post them.

Caucus Predictions

Caucus Predictions(12/20/2007)
Obama: 35%
Clintion: 33%
Edwards: 32%

Note: Bigger turnout helps Obama. So, watch the weather. If the weather is good, there will be record numbers for the caucuses.

Also, as a matter of full disclosure, I am supporting Obama.

However, until this past week or so, I would have said that my second choice was Hillary Clinton.

Not anymore.

Her campaign has proven to be far more dirty than any I would like to support.

That being said, I will support her is she is the nominee, but I hope it doesn't come to that.

Edwards is now my second choice.

I will not vote for Hillary in my primary.

Political Blogs Seem To Be Slowing Down

All the political blogs seem to be slowing down for the holidays. I think this is a pretty good indicator that the political season is coming to close for at least a week--maybe longer.

I had previously said that I thought the race would pretty much stay where it was right before the holidays. I still believe that, mostly, but I would add the caveat that the races are so absurdly close right now that any news cycle could change the narrative--just the way the media likes to construct these things.

So, what do we know today?

Iowa
Democrats: 3-way race in Iowa

Republicans: 2-way race(Huckabee and Romney)

New Hampshire
Democrats: 2-way race(Clinton and Obama). Probably decided by results of Iowa.

Republicans: 2-way race(Romney and McCain). Dependent on Romney's Iowa result.

I will put new primary rankings up today and tomorrow.

Hillary's Electability Issues

We have been told over and over again about Hillary has been vetted. Well, maybe not fully vetted:

Since they left the White House in 2001, Bill and Hillary Clinton have been under the protection of the Secret Service, formerly a branch of the Treasury Department and now part of the Homeland Security Department. Records are maintained showing where they go and whom they meet.

Homeland Security is under the control of Michael Chertoff, a longtime Clinton nemesis dating back to his work as a Republican lawyer on the Senate's Whitewater investigation in the 1990s. In 2003, Sen. Clinton cast the sole dissenting vote against Chertoff's nomination as a federal judge in protest against his abrasive conduct during the Whitewater inquiry.

Though Secret Service records are supposed to be closely held secrets, a source close to the Clintons told me that it is believed that senior Republicans have received regular briefings about movements of the Clintons that might prove embarrassing if released during the general election campaign.

I'm not sure that this is going to become big news, but it certainly seems big to me. To me, this cuts right into her electability rationale.

Iowa Polling is Useless

Rasmussen Poll in Iowa
Clinton: 31%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 22%

Three polls in three days with three different results. Sound about right. No one knows what the hell is going on.

Hillary Back On Top In NH

Last week's CNN/NH poll had Clinton up by 1%. This week's:

Clinton: 38%
Obama: 26%
Edwards: 14%

What happened since that last poll was taken? Wasn't there a drug reference "accidentally" uttered by a prominent NH pol?

Who says smears aren't effective?

Note: Even if Edwards were to win Iowa, I don't think that any Iowa bump he might get would be substantial enough to overcome his double-digit deficits in NH. I know the media wants to push him into a viable position, but I still don't see it.

Who is up in Iowa?

ABC/Washington Post Poll in Iowa
Democrats
Obama:33%
Hillary: 29%
Edwards: 20%

Obama even leads in the all-important second choice category:

Obama: 37%
Clinton: 31%
Edwards: 26%

Who knows what polls to believe right now? I will say that the Insider Advantage poll from yesterday really seems to have been way off the mark, though.

Does all this put an end to the Edwards' momentum story? No, the media loves to insert itself too much. This week they have collectively decided to push Edwards and McCain.

Edwards Up in Iowa?

A new Insider Advantage poll tonight perpetuates the media's meme that Edwards has momentum in Iowa.

Here are the numbers:

Edwards: 30%
Obama: 26%
Clinton: 24%

Seems like a pretty big swing toward Edwards from other polls, right? Well, two problems. First, this is the first time Insider Advantage has ever polled in Iowa, a state that is very difficult to poll because of the caucus format. Also, there is this from Open Left:

Why is this survey more favorable to Edwards? It could be because of an Edwards surge, but it could also be the result of the poll projecting that only one in eight caucus goers will be under the age of 45. Not only is that wildly inconsistent with 2004 entrance survey results for Iowa which indicated one in three caucus goers were under the page of 45, but it is also certain to drag down Obama's numbers given that he has consistently performed well among younger voters.

Call me if another--just one more--poll shows Edwards up in Iowa.

Obama Is Electable

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Clinton vs. Top Republicans
Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 48%
Clinton (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 46%

Obama vs. Top Republicans
Obama (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Obama (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 42%
Obama (D) 57%, Romney (R) 39%

(Tip to TPM Election Central)

Obama Closing In On Clinton

New Diageo/Hotline National Poll
Democrats
Clinton: 35%
Obama: 30%

Republican
Giuliani: 21%
Huckabee: 17%
Romney: 13%

The rest of the numbers were not released yet, but these numbers are so close that they make me skeptical.

Democratic Primary Rankings

Clinton: 46%, -
The Clinton campaign has gotten pretty nasty lately, and this does not help the already cold perception that people have of her. They are going hard at Obama through Bill Clinton, Bob Kerrey, and other surrogates. It is too early to tell if this has more of a negative effect on her or Obama, but it certainly doesn't help her image overall.
The Des Moines Register endorsement keeps her hopes alive in Iowa, but that has been about the only good news she has gotten in the last few weeks. I still think she is best positioned to win the nomination, but a win for Obama in Iowa would change the race in a hurry.
Obama: 40%, +/-
I don't think Obama has done anything to help himself, or to hurt himself, since my last rankings. So, he is still in a pretty admirable position. It's not necessarily a bad thing to be a slight underdog in the homestretch, especially if you end up winning the first few states. The media loves an underdog story, and I think if Obama wins Iowa and NH then the media could potentially bury Hillary in bad press.
Edwards: 14%, +
Edwards is finally starting to get some press attention. He gets the cover of Newsweek and some pundits are whispering that his support in rural Iowa, and high support from the second-choicers in the caucuses could set him up for an Iowa upset. If there is one thing Edwards understands it is the boost you get from a big Iowa finish.

Note: I still think this is pretty much the final full week of the campaign. The early caucuses really hamper the campaigns because of the holidays. It is hard to imagine people want to watch negative ads during the holidays. So, expect serious jabbing this week.

Of course, the candidates will be back on the trail the day after Christmas, but how much will voters want to listen. I have a feeling the campaigns have this week and then it's not until January 2nd that you get full voter attention back on the campaign. Iowa caucuses are January 3rd.

This week may end up being the most important week of the primaries.

Is Bill Clinton Off His Game?

Bill Clinton is, to my mind, the best natural politician of my lifetime. I have never seen anyone come near his level in communicating to people in that elusive combination of intelligence and warmth.

Lately, though, his message is not getting across so easily.

The media salivated when he said that he "opposed Iraq from the beginning." I thought that point was debatable. I think he was against going in when we did. He was on record saying that he thought we should give the UN inspectors more time, but he didn't clearly oppose the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Then people have been going crazy about his Charlie Rose appearance last Friday, when he said voting for Obama would be like, "rolling the dice." I actually think this was more an example of his political skill and less an example of his possible liabilities.

But this, well, this is bad:

"Well, the first thing she intends to do, because you can do this without passing a bill," Bill told reporters during a stop in South Carolina, "the first thing she intends to do is to send me and former President Bush and a number of other people around the world to tell them that America is open for business and cooperation again."

Why would you mention George H.W. Bush by name? That is just completely tone-deaf. First, why would Bush 41 agree to travel the country to repair the damage done by Bush 43? That would be a tacit admission of his son's failures. Secondly, Bush is not a name you want to mention as an ally when campaigning in a Democratic primary.

It's hard to see how the media does not jump all over this quote tomorrow, and this is the last thing the Clinton campaign needed right now. They were just starting to get their footing back after a couple of bad weeks.

Will Al Gore Endorse in 2008?

There are a few big Democratic endorsements left to be had in 2008.

The biggest endorsement would be from Al Gore, but I find it hard to believe that he will endorse anyone after the pummeling he took after endorsing Dean in 2004. However, if he did endorse, it would surprise me to see him endorse Hillary. It would be hard to hear the countless reports of their frosty relationship and not take them seriously. Still, though, it is hard to imagine Gore wanting to endorse a candidate that he doesn't see winning(read Edwards). So, that leaves Obama--if he endorses, which I don't think he will.

Another big endorsement would be from John Kerry. Kerry is the kind of guy that has trouble staying off the stage. It would not be surprising to see him endorse someone soon. I don't think he'll endorse Edwards. There seems to have been some bad blood between them since 2004--something about Edwards refusing to attack Bush and Cheney.
Who would Kerry pick, Hillary or Obama? I really don't have the faintest idea.

Tom Harkin is a big Iowa endorsement, probably the biggest Democratic name in Iowa. His wife has already endorsed Hillary. This is a pretty good sign that Hillary is holding Harkin in her back pocket, waiting for the perfect moment to unleash his support.
That being said, Harkin was also burned by endorsing Dean in 2004. So, he might be considering sitting this one out.

The liberal lion, Ted Kennedy, has not endorsed anyone. I watched him the other night on Bloomberg's Political Capital, and he wasn't showing his hand. Many of his colleagues are running this time around, and I could see him deciding not to enter the fray for this reason. It would be better to not endorse then to burn the political bridges to several of your friends and colleagues.

Bill Clinton is Factually Challenged

Bill Clinton from Charlie Rose:

"...And what we want is somebody who started running for president a year after he became senator because he's fresh, he's new, he's never made a mistake, and he has massive political skills. And we're willing to risk it,'" Clinton told Rose.

Clinton must have said this about Obama four or five times during the interview. I have yet to see someone call him on this misstatement. Obama was elected in 2004. He was sworn in at the very beginning of 2005. He didn't announce he was running for President until January of 2007. How is that one year? Why isn't anyone calling Clinton's bluff on this?

Clinton Campaign: As Nasty As They Wanna Be

This from Mike Allen's Playbook:

So why did former U.S. senator Bob Kerrey — in endorsing Senator CLINTON in Council Bluffs, Iowa, yesterday, — refer to the junior senator from Illinois as "Barack Hussein Obama"?

As quoted by the WashPost's Shailagh Murray: "I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim. There's a billion people on the planet that are Muslims and I think that experience is a big deal.")

The press corps, which had dinner in Des Moines with Clinton Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle and other HRC honchos, is abuzz. (About the "Hussein" thing, not the charm offensive.

My understanding was that Kerrey was heavily scripted by the Clinton campaign at his campaign stops this weekend. Bob Kerrey is known for running his mouth a little too much, but this behavior seems indicative of the Clinton campaign. They send out a surrogate to say something awful about Obama, and then they praise him in an underhanded way or veil their nastiness in phony concern.

Mark my words, though, this was a coordinated effort.

Nothing, at this point, that the Clinton campaign does will surprise me. They are Bush league dirty. This kind of stuff is right out of the Rovian playbook.

UPDATE: I feel like I need to say that the Clinton campaign's willingness to be dirty will be an asset in the general election. In order to beat the Republicans you will have to be dirty, they certainly will be. My issue is with the level of nastiness that they are shoveling at other Democrats.

Republican Presidential Rankings

Romney: 27%, -
I knocked Romney down a few percentage points only because he has been consistently down in Iowa, and this makes many states--after a New Hampshire win--more uncertain. Romney's campaign realizes how important Iowa and New Hampshire are for big momentum heading into the rest of the states. The media will immediately jump on for a ride toward history, and you get the lion's share of the press. This is why Romney has started going after Huckabee. He knows he needs Iowa. It is not a necessity, but it makes his path to the nomination much easier.
Huckabee: 25%, -
I've also knocked Huckabee down a few points. He is still polling very well, leading in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida.
But...
Conservatives are apoplectic about the prospects of his nomination. His support is almost entirely evangelical, and the conservatives are finally having to reap all the lunacy they have sown these past thirty years.
Plus, it seems like a new story is coming out everyday that further damages his prospects. Like:
He doesn't have a theology degree, even though he has been saying he has for years.
He accepted large gifts and donations as Governor that landed the contributors into state jobs.
And his 17 year-old son brutally murdered a stray dog.
All of this adds up to an increasingly troubling prospect for the Republican party. They are already going to have a rough time at the polls next November, and Huckabee might just sink the party. Question is: Do evangelicals care? I don't think they do, and I don't think these stories are being covered enough that they won't fall through the cracks of an ignorant evangelical electorate.
McCain: 20%, +
McCain's chances seem to be increasing as all the other candidates seem to be self-destructing. New Hampshire is his best hope, and yet Romney seems to have NH in control. Besides, McCain really isn't running a very good campaign, and he is not going to catch fire anytime soon. But if this race becomes about electability then I think he gets a boost. He is clearly the most electable Republican right now. All the other serious candidates have serious negatives.
However, McCain is not without his negatives. He is seventy-two, and, since Reagan, age has to be taken into consideration. Also, he has a reputation of being too quick to anger. Not to mention the fact that most Republicans hate him.
Giuliani: 20%, -
Boy, how far the mighty have fallen. Giuliani is just dying. He is getting almost no press but bad press, and his time is running out. He was counting on the big states to send him over the top, with Florida being his firewall. Now, though, he is third in Florida. His only hope is that Romney flames out in Iowa, and that the Huckabee panic goes widespread.
Thompson: 8%, +
Thomson goes up because with this field of candidates even the turds rise.

Two Different Polls, Two Different Stories

Research 2000 Iowa Poll
Obama: 33%
Clinton: 24%
Edwards: 24%

Hotline/Diageo Iowa Poll
Obama: 27%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 22%

Is the Democratic Race close in Iowa? Or is Obama pulling away?

Obama is up in Iowa polls more than any of the other candidates. This leads me to believe that Obama does have a lead in Iowa right now--albeit a very thin lead. Still, though, I maintain an Obama win in Iowa will lead to an Obama win in NH and SC.

But...

I actually think the Clinton campaign has turned the corner on their bad few weeks. Watch for Bill Clinton to become Hillary's attack dog, going hard after Obama. Everyone knew that Pres. Clinton would be an advantages for her in the race.

But..

Des Moines Register endorses tomorrow. This is a very influential endorsement in Democratic circles in Iowa. If Edwards gets the nomination then I expect there will be some talk of what happens if Hillary finishes third in Iowa.

NH/Concord Moniter Poll

Democrats
Obama: 32%
Clinton: 31%
Edwards: 18%
Note: This is so tight that the results of New Hampshire will depend a great deal on who has the momentum from Iowa--Obama is up right now in Iowa.

Republicans
Romney: 31%
Giuliani: 18%
McCain: 17%
Huckabee: 9%
Note: Since Romney pretty much has NH wrapped up, and the democratic race is so tight, McCain's path to the nomination is pretty much kaput. Why? McCain was counting on independents to push him over the edge. Independents are much more likely to vote in a close democratic election then in a race that already seems to be a foregone conclusion. Who does Romney's lead help the most? Obama. Independents will vote in a close democratic primary, and they break by double-digits toward Obama.

Link.

Obama Looks Forward to Clinton Advising Him

If this clip is the clip that makes the rounds after the debate then Obama won the debate:

All apologies for the Fox News clip.

Hillary's Headlines

This Headline Crusher from Halperin's The Page:

CLINTON'S 45 DAYS OF POST-PHILLY-DEBATE HELL
No longer "inevitable," it's been one long drivers-licenses-waffling-waitress-tip-stiffing-question-planting- boys-club-claiming-on-piling-foreign-policy-facing-Bubba-flubbing- fun-attacking-Muslim-email-forwarding-kindergarten-citing- air-of-desperation-reeking-campaign-infighting nightmare.

Hillary Camp Full of Leaks

Who is leaking all of these Clinton-in-turmoil stories?

For months, tension has been building between the "Hillary" and "Bill" parts of the team, say several people familiar with the situation. Bill Clinton -- along with former White House hands -- have counseled her to adopt a far more aggressive approach with Obama.

Penn, sources say, has counseled moderation, believing an attack would elevate her already-high negatives and drive her too far to the left to win a general election.
The division wasn't a major issue when Clinton enjoyed a modest edge in Iowa and big leads in South Carolina and New Hampshire. But the acrimony has grown as all those races have become toss-ups.

For a supposedly disciplined, tight-lipped campaign, they sure have been doing a lot of leaking lately. The Hillary campaign just can't take this drip-drip of turmoil stories. A new one seems to come out every day.

As far as this story goes, I think it is clear that Clinton is going to go after Obama, but the question is how? And will it work?

The kindergarten story and the cocaine debacle were both complete and utter failures. So, what will they hit him with?

His health care plan? Doesn't seem to have made traction in the past.

His PAC giving money to elected officials in Iowa? I just don't think people really understand that story enough to know what it means.

His experience? Only exemplifies his narrative of being the candidate of change.

His earlier liberal positions? Yea, I'll bet that will hurt him in a Democratic primary.

They risk losing big in Iowa if she goes after Obama in today's Iowa debate. She just doesn't look good going negative, and if she gives the media a nasty sound byte that makes the rotation then it will bury her in Iowa, and getting buried in Iowa could very well mean losing in NH five days later.

Clinton Campaign: As Dirty as it Gets

You think a big, and experiened, Clinton supporter in New Hampshire just said this off the cuff?

"The Republicans are not going to give up without a fight ... and one of the things they're certainly going to jump on is his drug use," said Shaheen, the husband of former N.H. governor Jeanne Shaheen, who is planning to run for the Senate next year. Billy Shaheen contrasted Obama's openness about his past drug use -- which Obama mentioned again at a recent campaign appearance in New Hampshire -- with the approach taken by George W. Bush in 1999 and 2000, when he ruled out questions about his behavior when he was "young and irresponsible."

Shaheen said Obama's candor on the subject would "open the door" to further questions. "It'll be, 'When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?'" Shaheen said. "There are so many openings for Republican dirty tricks. It's hard to overcome."

Coincidence that this comes out on the first day a poll shows Obama up in New Hampshire?

Pretty swarmy prefacing it by saying that it would come from the Republicans--when its coming from you.

Update: Clinton campaign disavows itself from Shaheen's statement:

Senator Clinton is out every day talking about the issues that matter to the American people. These comments were not authorized or condoned by the campaign in any way.

Shaheen apologizes:

“I deeply regret the comments I made today and they were not authorized by the campaign in any way."

Damage is done, though. And this hurts Hillary much more than it hurts Obama.

Updated Later(12/13/2007): Now Hillary personally apologizes.

New Iowa Poll--Obama Pulling Away?

Strategic Vision Iowa Poll
Democrats
Obama: 33%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 24%
Question: What if Hillary finishes third?

Republicans
Huckabee: 30%
Romney: 25%
Thompson: 13%
Giuliani: 10%
Question: Is Huck's support fading after closer scrutiny?

link.

Democratic Presidential Rankings

Clinton: 50%, +/-
Although Hillary has had a bad couple of weeks, she is still the front-runner. She is still ahead in most of the polls, national and state, and her few bad weeks have not been that bad. That being said, she does risk hurting herself with more negative attacks on Obama, but it doesn't seem like she has learned her lesson. Exhibit A and B.
Obama: 40%, +
Obama is still doing very well. I would say that he still has momentum on his side, but I am noticing a slow down after the big Oprah weekend. The media seems obsessed with Huckmentum and the state of the Republican field. So, the megaphone is being occupied by other events right now. However, the democratic debate this Thursday will be a good place to show that he has not slowed.
Edwards: 10%, -
Edwards is still on the low end of all the polls, including must-win Iowa. He just can't seem to get any media attention. So, he is still a bit of a long shot. He did get some good news, though, with a new CNN poll showing him trouncing all the GOP contenders in a general election.

Republican Presidential Rankings

Romney: 29%, -
This race is so tight it is ridiculous. I still have Romney as the front-runner, but just barely. His big speech on religion did not quite have the impact I thought it would. I still think the ball is in his court, but he has to really attack Huckabee and he has just started doing that. He has a new ad attacking Huckabee on immigration, and he is taking his chances to go after Huckabee on the public airwaves. So, I think this is still Romney's race if he can continue to effectively attack Huckabee, but he'll need some help from the media.
Giuliani: 28%, -
There was some talk that Giuliani was going to use his appearance on Meet the Press to reboot his campaign, but anyone who watched him knows that it was a complete train wreck. I keep trying to envision his path to the nomination but it just keeps getting hazier and hazier. I fully expect Giuliani to be the third name on this list next week.
Huckabee: 28%, +
Huckabee is what happens to your party when you display a weak field of candidates. Huckabee could end up being the ultimate price fiscal conservatives pay for all of those years embracing social conservatives. Now, the social conservatives think they own the party, and in this primary they might just go and prove it. Right now Huckabee is on such a roll that if they are going to stop him they have to do it now. The Wayne Dumond story didn't seem to halt his momentum. Now, there is a slow leak of all the crazy things he has said in his Southern Baptist past, but all of these things only help him with social conservatives. The Republicans' biggest problem is going to be that every crazy thing Huckabee has said probably helps him with the conservative base. It's pretty much up to Romney, the media, or the conservative establishment to come out strongly against him and pray something sticks. The only problem? Huck's got god on his side.
McCain: 13%, +/-
Why is McCain still on the list? Well, let's say Huckabee and Romney blow each other up with negatives in Iowa. Giuliani's doing a pretty good job of boosting his negatives on his own. Who is left? McCain. Also, there is an electability argument to be made for McCain,.
Thompson: 2%, -
Thompson is still on the rankings only because this whole race is such a mess.
I'll bet Gingrich is really kicking himself right now.

The Obama-Oprah Effect

Here is an excerpt from Ana Marie Cox's impressions:

...At the same time, neither would Oprah's role as a cultural arbiter be diminished by her foray into politics. When her speech reached its climax, the touchstone was not the words of Martin Luther King Jr. (though he was mentioned), but a novel: The Autobiography of Miss Jane Pittman. The slave Jane Pittman, Oprah said, looks for the one who might free her for years, asking, "are you the one?" Oprah then told the crowd, "He is the one."

The frenzy that then greeted Obama, nearly four hours after the crowd had lined up outside the arena, was full of awe and hysteria. A lot people get excited to shake a politician's hand; not so many greet one as though he were about to heal them by laying his on them.

If there was any question about the effect Oprah would have on the race, I think it can now be put to rest. The Barack-as-new-messiah narrative is back after being missing for most of the campaign.

The coverage this weekend has been overwhelmingly positive and overwhelmingly persistent.

The question: Was this weekend the peak of Obama's momentum, or just another leg of the race toward the nomination?

I think we'll start to get an answer to this question after Thursday's debate in Iowa. The media's reaction to his debate performance--the actual performance is always less important than the perception--will tell us where we are at on the momentum scale.

Hillary People Pushing "Barack is Muslim" Smear

This is the second time in a week that the Clinton campaign has had to let someone go for this:

Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign on Sunday requested the resignation of a second Iowa volunteer coordinator who forwarded a hoax e-mail saying Barack Obama is a Muslim possibly intent on destroying the United States.

Obama is a member of the United Church of Christ and says he has never been a Muslim, but false rumors attempting to tie him to Islamic jihadists are circulating on the Internet.

As if it weren't bad enough to try and tie Obama to a religion that he doesn't belong to, is that they are tying him to jihadists. This kind of politics is truly unconscionable, and it just makes Hillary, responsible or not, look awful.

New Dem Polls for the Big 3 States

Iowa

Clinton: 27%
Obama : 25%
Edwards: 21%

New Hampshire

Clinton: 30%
Obama : 27%
Edwards: 10%

South Carolina

Clinton: 28%
Obama : 25%
Edwards: 18%

This is pretty huge news for the Obama campaign. And this is before any Oprah bump, and don't be surprised if there is one. Even I was reticent to buy into the big deal about the Oprah endorsement, but the print media, and television news has been eating it up.

link.

Newsweek Iowa Polls

Democrats, likely to caucus
Obama: 35%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 18%

That seems just about reasonable. Although, the Edwards camp is taking pains to let people see internal polls that show a much closer race.

Republicans
Huckabee: 39%
Romney: 17%
Thompson: 10%
Giuliani: 9%

These results are preposterous, and until I see another poll even remotely close to this, I will continue to think this is a wildly erratic result.

link.

Hillary's Possible VP's

This from Political Insider:

At the Black and Brown Forum in Iowa last weekend, Gov. Bill Richardson ran through Bill Clinton's gubernatorial successes in Arkansas, then asked Sen. Hillary Clinton, "Don't you think governors make good presidents?" Without missing a beat, Clinton replied, "Well, Bill, I also think they make good vice presidents."

They go on to speculate that Hillary might have been hinting at a VP slot for Richardson. I don't think so, though it is possible.

I have been thinking for a couple of months now that if--an ever-growing if--Hillary gets the nomination that she will pick a governor for her running mate.

The top three candidates?
1. Ted Strickland. Governor of Ohio. Former Congressman. Voted against the Iraq War. Extremely popular throughout the state. Would probably ensure an Ohio victory.
2. Phil Bredesen. Popular Governor of Tennessee. Is he popular enough to overcome Hillary high negatives in a red state?
3. Brian Schweitzer. Governor of Montana. Popular and affable. Tough to see how he turns Montana blue, though.

If she doesn't pick a governor, then I think she picks Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. I would put Bayh up higher than Richardson. Remember that Richardson has not proven himself to be a very good campaigner.

Also, I think it is more productive for a campaign to pick a VP that the national media doesn't already know. If you pick a relative unknown then you get at least a week of biography narratives in the media. If you pick someone that has already been in the campaign then the media goes straight into electoral strategy, and you lose that precious biographical news cycle.

All of the talk of her picking Obama is nothing more than chatter. The only possibility that I see for that scenario to play out would be if there was a protracted, and bitter primary battle that goes on for months. Hillary might try to heal a divided party by uniting the convention behind the two divided factions. That, however, is not likely.

Note: Don't mean to jump the gun here. I don't believe Hillary has the nomination sewn up. This is just something I've been thinking about for awhile.

To be honest, I haven't even started to think about who Obama would pick for VP. He has only just now started to make me consider it.

Oprah? No. Not gonna happen.

New South Carolina Polls

Rasmussen Polls in South Carolina

Democrats
Clinton: 36%
Obama: 34%
Edwards: 13%

This poll has got to be welcome news for the Obama campaign. The only word of caution I would offer is that Rasmussen and Zogby are two of the polling firms that offer results that I always take with a grain of salt.

Republicans
Huckabee: 25%
Thompson: 18%
Romney: 18%
Giuliani: 12%

I don't know which is the bigger story from this poll, Huckabee's rise or Rudy's fall.

Democratic Primary Rankings

Clinton: 50%, -
I am knocking Clinton down a couple notches because she is having a pretty bad week, one of her worst in the campaign. First, Iran has essentially been exonerated by the NIE and since Clinton voted for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment, which essentially ratcheted up the rhetoric with Iran, this is bad news for Hillary in a democratic primary.
Also, she went after Obama for writing that he wanted to be president in kindergarten--not good. She had to get rid of an Iowa county coordinator for passing along e-mails containing the "Obama is a muslim" lie. And her campaign butchered the spelling of an Iowa town in a fundraising e-mail, which seems superficial unless you live there.
All of these things start to add up to a campaign that is starting to look less and less perfect by the day. A superior organization has always been one of Hillary's major campaign strengths. I think we are starting to see some pretty substantial cracks in that perception.
Still, nothing has happened to really hurt her ultimate path to the nomination.
Obama: 38%, +
Obama still seems to be running full steam ahead. He certainly has gotten the best of Clinton this week--mostly because of all the nonsense her campaign has been trying to pass off on him this week, not to mention her comment that attacking other campaigns was "the fun part".
New polls show him leading in Iowa, and closing quickly in New Hampshire. Also, his event in SC this weekend with Oprah had to be moved from its 18,000 person venue to a football stadium that holds 80,000.
And he is moving his message ads away from wonky and biographical to the inspirational rhetoric that I have been expecting from him all along. Watch:

Edwards: 12%, +/-
I don't know what to say about Edwards anymore. He just doesn't get any media attention, and his message is being suffocated by the Hillary/Obama horse race narrative. Even the liberal blogs are talking less and less about Edwards and more and more about Obama.
The only reason I still have Edwards unchanged is that he is still polling well in Iowa, his organization is strong, and a win in Iowa is always a game-changer. So, he will remain on the board as long as he maintains his twenty-something numbers in Iowa.
The rest of the candidates are toast.

Republican Primary Rankings

Romney: 35%, -
I am decreasing Romney's chances at the nomination for two reasons. First, Huckabee has really thrown a wrench in Romney's road to the nomination. Iowa is very tight right now. The polls are showing a statistical tie between Romney and Huckbee. Romney has a slight edge, though, in money and organization. So, i still think he'll win when it is all said down.
The second reason that I have decreased his chances is this story that broke about him hiring illegal immigrants to take care of his lawn. Of course, I could care less about this story. I don't care who the guy hires to prune his shrubs. But the conservatives are rabid about illegal immigrants, and this could really hurt him, especially in Iowa.
Giuliani: 30%, +
Giuliani has given me no reason to boost him in these rankings, and yet he is up slightly from last week. Why? Well, I hate to agree with the pundits , but it is true that if Huckabee wins Iowa then this complicates things for Romney, and a more complicated path for Romney necessarily equals a slightly easier path for Giuliani. However, I still think that we haven't seen the end to Rudy's fall. I think his number will continue to drop in the coming weeks.
Huckabee: 20%, +
Huckabee is surging in Iowa, and make no mistake about it, Iowa is the most important state to win for the nomination. Momentum is everything, and momentum is what you get from Iowa. I am not saying that he will get the nomination if he wins Iowa, but it will give him a boost everywhere else. If he puts himself close enough in other, early states, and then wins Iowa, well, he has a legitimate path to the Republican nomination.
But since his surge is new, and his lead in polls has just broke in the past week or so, he is just now receiving the media scrutiny that he hasn't gotten thus far. This gives us Wayne Dumond. And Wayne Dumond is a pretty big problem.
McCain: 12%, +/-
It is hard to see McCain's road to the nomination. However, all the other candidates have had enough mini-meltdowns lately that he seems like a safer bet in comparison. Also, he did get a huge endorsement from the Manchester Union-Leader this weekend. But if he doesn't win New Hampshire then he is done.
Thompson: 3%, -
The only reason Thompson is still on the list is because the Republican field is such a mess right now that just about anything can happen. And even though Thompson has been a remarkably terrible candidate, he is still very popular down south. E'Majin Dat!

Final Note: Don't be surprised to see some serious king-making moments begin for Romney after his big religion speech tomorrow at the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library.

New Iowa Polls

Political Wire got an advance look at tomorrow's Strategic Vision poll for Iowa, and here are the results:

Democrats

Obama: 32%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 25%

My guess is they pushed undecideds into deciding. So, much of Obama's support could be soft. Still, though, this is an impressive number for Obama. Perhaps, Hillary's internal polls were showing similar results, which would explain her recent attacks on Obama.

Republicans

Huckabee: 27%
Romney: 24%
Giuliani: 13%
Thompson: 11%

I'm still not convinced that Huckabee's current surge isn't temporary. If this is where he is right before the holidays, then I will be convinced. I still believe that Romney will have the more sophisticated organization in the end.

Hillary Attacks Obama's Kindergarten Record

On the front page of today's Des Moines Register:

I'll bet the Hillary campaign is really regretting going after Obama's kindergarten record.

Tip to Ben Smith

Huckabee and Wayne Dumond

Huckabee's surge has been pretty incredible in the Republican primary. I have been wondering if anything could stop his sudden insurgency, and though I had heard a little about his role in the parole of rapist Wayne Dumond, I never knew it was this bad:

While on the campaign trail, Huckabee has claimed that he supported the 1999 release of Wayne Dumond because, at the time, he had no good reason to believe that the man represented a further threat to the public. Thanks to Huckabee's intervention, conducted in concert with a right-wing tabloid campaign on Dumond's behalf, Dumond was let out of prison 25 years before his sentence would have ended.

"There's nothing any of us could ever do," Huckabee said Sunday on CNN when asked to reflect on the horrific outcome caused by the prisoner's release. "None of us could've predicted what [Dumond] could've done when he got out."

But the confidential files obtained by the Huffington Post show that Huckabee was provided letters from several women who had been sexually assaulted by Dumond and who indeed predicted that he would rape again - and perhaps murder - if released.

And what did Dumond do after his release:

After Dumond's release from prison in September 1999, he moved to Smithville, Missouri, where he raped and suffocated to death a 39-year-old woman named Carol Sue Shields. Dumond was subsequently convicted and sentenced to life in prison for that rape and murder.

But Dumond's arrest for those crimes in June 2001 came too late for 23-year-old Sara Andrasek of Platte County, Missouri. Dumond allegedly raped and murdered her just one day before his arrest for raping and murdering Shields. Prior to the attack, Andrasek and her husband had learned that she was pregnant with their first child.

Murray Waas has written a long, thoughtful, and damning piece on the Dumond story, a story very much worth reading.

As far as I'm concerned, this story is a deal breaker for Huckabee. As it should be.

Does Clinton Campaign think Obama is "Uppity"?

Here's an excerpt from an interesting David Corn piece about the Clinton campaign's apparent Obama hatred:

"They really, really hate Obama," one Democratic operative unaffiliated with any campaign, tells me. "They can't stand him. They talk about him as if he's worse than Bush." What do they hate about him? After all, there aren't a lot of deep policy differences between the two, and he hasn't gone for the jugular during the campaign. "It's his presumptuousness," this operative says. "That he thinks he can deny her the nomination. Who is he to try to do that?" You mean, he's, uh, uppity? "Yes." A senior House Democratic aide notes, "The Clinton people are going nuts in how much they hate him. But the problem is their narrative has gone beyond the plausible."

The Clinton campaign has been pretty nasty lately(read the entire David Corn piece to read more about that), but they haven't been racist. If they were to actually call Obama "uppity", well, that would be some serious race-baiting.

I think the Clinton campaign is walking a thin line right now. They really are teetering on self-destruction with some of their more recent attacks.

But, as I have said, the next two weeks may be the most critical two weeks of the primary. So, this is the home stretch and some nastiness is to be expected. That being said, Clinton needs to watch her step, or she risks stepping over the edge.

Politics for Stupid People

Mark Halperin over at Time's The Page on today's NPR debate:

NPR Debate is Civil, Informative, Substantive, and Newsless

That just about sums up the current state of American politics.

And remember Halperin is the former Political Director at ABC News.

Campaigning Over the Holidays

In 2004 the Iowa caucuses took place on January 19th. The two weeks before the caucuses were filled with an endless barrage of candidate statements, television ads, attack ads, campaign mailers, and television appearances. It looked like it would be worse this year because both parties have candidates in contested caucuses, unlike 2004.

But I don't think those final two weeks will be as crazy in Iowa as they were in 2004.

The caucuses are on January 3rd this year. This leads the campaigns into completely new territory.

How do candidates campaign during the holidays?

This from Joe over at AmericaBlog:

It's going to be a long month on the campaign trail. As we get closer to Christmas, the question is whether people will be listening.

This is an otherwise very busy and stressful time for most Americans. Between holiday parties, Christmas shopping, final exams for the college students and all the other tasks associated with December, it's hard to figure how people -- even in Iowa and N.H. -- are going to fit in politics. We haven't had an election season that so intruded on the holidays.

At some point soon, I think the campaign will basically freeze. Where candidates are now is probably where they are going to be in early January when everyone emerges from the holiday fog.

It's going to be hard to gain momentum during December -- and it's also a very risky tactic to start being aggressively negative when most people have holidays on their minds. That could backfire.

I think the next two weeks are going to be pretty close to those last two weeks in 2004. The campaigns really don't have a choice. It's not like people want to watch negative ads during the week of Christmas and New Year's. In fact, it will be hard to even get eyeballs on your ads. In some ways you'll be wasting your money and your message. So, unlike 2004, where there was a lot of movement in those final two weeks, I actually think that we will see all of the movement in the next two weeks. My guess is that where things stand on the winter solstice will probably be about how things shake out, at least in Iowa.

Here's an excerpt from an L.A. Times piece from a couple of weeks ago on this idea of holiday campaigning:

The early start also means presidential hopefuls face an unprecedented season of holiday campaigning that promises to test the limits of public patience and inject new uncertainty into an already volatile race.

Among the tricky questions of yule-time etiquette: Is it OK to run a slashing attack ad during commercial breaks from "It's a Wonderful Life"? How about handing out caucus recruitment cards alongside Salvation Army bell-ringers in Iowa?

Tom Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa and a key advisor to Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, said White House hopefuls were entering "new territory, new ground, and we're all going to have to tread lightly."

"It's pretty fair to say people aren't going to be too thrilled with telephone calls that break up their . . . holiday meal or any kind of religious celebration," Vilsack said. "They're not going to appreciate a barrage of negative comments or negative campaigning, before Dec. 25 anyway. After that, it may be easier to do."