Al Hunt's Must-Read Column on '08 Election

This from Hunt:

The gates are about to open for the U.S. presidential race. The early odds, if history is an indicator, will be close to the mark.

Looking at bookmakers in Las Vegas and London, and the crystal balls of a few seasoned political practitioners from both parties, a clear line has emerged.

First are the elements of a Democratic year. Pay less attention to the close general-election trial heats; they are lagging indicators as Ronald Reagan, circa December 1979, and Bill Clinton, circa December 1991, could have told you.

The fundamentals -- the country's mood, the political cycle, the likely shape of the economy, and the movement of certain constituencies such as Hispanics and young voters -- all tilt Democratic.

Thus, lay down 7-to-win-5 on a Democrat taking the presidential oath of office 13 months from now, 2-to-1 that it's a Republican, and 20-to-1 an independent or third-party candidate.

This is a must-read piece for anyone who wants to get a quick indication of the lay of the political land right now.