8 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

What to watch for:
Negative Ads.
Who is first to go negative(TV, Radio, or Direct Mail), after Christmas?
Do the campaigns do the dirty work?
Or do they count on surrogates(527's and other special interest organizations)?
Note: It looks like Obama is going to be getting hit hard from some of these 527 groups.
Watch how his campaign responds. Do these hurt Obama? or do they hurt the candidates that are being supported by the 527's?
Watch how the media portrays these ads to get an indication of their effectiveness.
So far Obama has felt a little like a teflon candidate--nothing sticks.

Endorsements.
There are a few endorsements to watch for that could make a a major difference.
Three big ones to watch for: Al Gore, Jeb Bush, and John Kerry.
If any these three endorse a candidate, watch how the media frames the story.
Note: Two kingmaker moment to watch: Jeb endorsing Romney.
Gore endorsing Obama.

Closing Arguments.
Watch to see if any campaigns try out a new closing theme.
Does it stick?
Is the media picking it up?
Are crowds responding on the ground to the message?

Crowd Sizes in Iowa.
In 2004, you could see an Edwards and Kerry surge, not just in the polls, but by the increase in their crowd sizes.
Note: Some of this is happening for Edwards right now.

Polls.
Polls released in the past three or four days should not be trusted.
Polls released in the next couple of days should not trusted. These polls will be skewed by the holidays.
Polls released this weekend will give us a good indication of how the race is crystallizing.