Giuliani Sinking. Romney Rising.

CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Poll
Romney: 33%, +8(Since last poll)
McCain: 18%, unchanged
Giuliani: 16%, -8
Paul: 8%, +4
Thompson: 4%, -9

This poll is much more interesting that the Democratic Iowa poll that came out today.

First of all there is no real reason to see a boost for Romney. Of course, as I have said all along, his organization in the early states is excellent. I don't live in New Hampshire. Perhaps Romney is omnipresent there. I wouldn't doubt it. I have to say that I like his strategy. He really doesn't seem to be at all concerned with lagging national numbers. His campaign is focussed on the proper states, and he is up where it counts. National numbers mean nothing.

As far as Giuliani is concerned, this poll is devastating. I think we are starting to see the shine go out on Rudy. I predicted this last week. I still feel that we will look back at the Robertson endorsement as Rudy's apex. Bad news has come fast and furious for Rudy recently, and i don't see any reason to believe that the bad news will end.

And Thompson is dead in the water. He needs to get out while he still has work in television.

McCain is still McCain, and I maintain that he has burned too many bridges to win the nomination.

Ron Paul, well, at least someone is still taking him seriously.

Overall, though, I think the Democrats have more to fear from Romney than they do from Giuliani. There is just too much dirt on Giuliani. He is an easy target at this point. I think--and I didn't think this a couple of months ago--he would get crushed in the general election. But Romney's campaign is focussed and organized. They really seem to have their eyes on the prize.

Still lots of time left though.

And always humbling to remember that I was already printing my Dean/Clark '04 stickers at this time in 2003.