Front-Runners on the Defensive

In the 2008 Presidential Primary, we get the great benefit of watching both parties fight it out for their candidate. This very rarely happens, at least to the extent it is happening now, especially when considering the sheer number of candidates.

And in every primary, the front-runner finds himself, or herself, on the proverbial ropes. What the front-runner does on the ropes shows you if they have it in them to win the nomination or not.

I always think back to Howard Dean in 2004. There was a CNN debate where he was attacked on all sides for a comment he made about appealing to voters with confederate flag decals on their pick-up trucks. He just fell apart under the pressure. That was the first moment where I really started to believe that his lead was in trouble.

You could go back further than that to Ed Muskie in '76, when he was challenged with questions about his wife's mental health issues, and he began to break down. It was 1976 for god's sake, men didn't yet have tears. So, clearly Muskie was crucified for his public weakness.

We are seeing right now how Hillary is handling being on the defensive. If I were to give her a grade, I would say she gets a B. She is doing a good job, but not a great job.

Ultimately, she will survive the bad debate episode. The question is, can her competitors, or the media, keep the underlining issues from last week's debate alive? Can they perpetuate a storyline that keeps hammering home the narrative about her so-called "double-talk" problem?

Then there is Giuliani.

Bernard Kerik was indicted today. Giuliani and Kerik are wrapped together tighter than Sigfried and Roy. How does Giuliani address this issue vigorously enough to shift the storyline to his advantage, and how does his opponents go after him for it, or do they use it at all? The answers to these questions will give us a better idea if Giuliani can get the Republican nomination.

My sense is that if his opponents don't hammer him on Kerik, then this issue will go away for the primary.

However, since Kerik will be on trial for awhile, it could come back to haunt him in the general.