November 27, 2007
Democratic Primary Rankings
Hillary Clinton 52% -
I have dropped Hillary down to a 50/50 shot at the nomination. It is still too hard to tell whether she is actually losing momentum, or that the media is making a concerted effort to deflate her momentum. Either way, though, it is taking its toll.
Barack Obama 36% +
This is a substantial increase for Obama. The reason: Many political observers are saying that he is in the best position to win Iowa, and winning Iowa will change the dynamic of the race substantially. Also, he really seems to have unleashed some new energy in these last few weeks. Of course, time, and future debates, will tell if this Barack bubble is real momentum or a media-driven push, but if it is real he could pull this thing off. Still not the most likely outcome, but becoming more feasible by the day.
And he has Oprah campaigning for him.
John Edwards 12% -
Edwards is the loser of the Hillary vs. Obama storyline. If he can’t figure out a way to bully himself into the media’s horse race narrative, then he will sink fast. Time is running out for Edwards.
Then there is everyone else. As of now, no one else is seriously in the running.


