Hillary Cancels Weekend Trip to NH

Sen. Clinton cancelled a weekend trip to New Hampshire earlier today because of an illness in the family. It would have been her first trip to the important primary state since 1996. It turns out that Bill Clinton's stepfather, Dick Kelley was ill and has died at 91.

Biden's Statement on his Obama Remarks

Biden on his Obama Comment:

"I deeply regret any offense my remark in the New York Observer might have caused anyone. That was not my intent and I expressed that to Senator Obama."

Josh Marshall has a good post about how the audio makes the comment sound a lot less inflammatory then the transcribed quote. Listen to the audio here.

Obama'a Reaction to Biden

Obama released a statement in response to Biden's earlier comments:

I didn't take Senator Biden's comments personally, but obviously they are historically inaccurate. After all, we've had presidential candidates like Jesse jackson, Shirley Chisholm, Carol Mosely Braun and Al Sharpton. They gave a voice to many important issues through their campaigns and no one would call them inarticulate.

Hits the right note, and never once used the r-word. Perfect.

2008's First Gaffe

It is official, Joe Biden has the first major gaffe of the 2008 presidential campaign:

"I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy," he said. "I mean, that's a storybook, man."

This doesn't bode well for Biden, considering that this is his first day. However, I'm not going to trash the guy for this. I'll let other people do that. It just sounds to me like he was trying to be complimentary and his mouth got ahead of his brain.

Obama's Fox News Freeze-Out

It looks like Obama is not talking to Fox News reporters.

This from "The Sleuth":

Sources tell The Sleuth that the Obama camp has "frozen out" Fox News reporters and producers in the wake of the network's major screw-up in running with the erroneous Obama-the-jihadist story reported by Insight magazine.

It doesn't sound like a permanent freeze. Roger Ailes, CEO of Fox News, personally called and talked to Obama about the bogus Madrassah story. Also, professional hack and Fox News vice president John Moody sent out this terse e-mail to staff:

"For the record: seeing an item on a website does not mean it is right. Nor does it mean it is ready for air on FNC. The urgent queue is our way of communicating information that is air-worthy. Please adhere to this."

Still, Steve Doocy, the douchebag on "Fox and Friends" who first reported the bogus smear should publicly apologize to Obama, and John Gibson should just promise to shut up for a couple of years.

Biden Wastes No Time Hammering Hillary

We have all known for weeks that Biden was going to run, but he made it offical today by filing papers to form an exploratory committee. Of course, it didn't take long for him to start beating up Clinton's plan for Iraq:

"I think it would be a disaster if it is her plan" to cut off funding for local Iraqi forces, Biden told "Good Morning America" anchor Diane Sawyer. "I think it's counterproductive."

Some of these guys will be nice to Hillary because they want consideration for VP. It's hard to see Richardson or Clark saying something really rotten about Hillary. They both want serious consideration for the VP slot. However, Biden is from Delaware, and nobody I know thinks he'll even be considered for the VP. Democrats tradionally like to make strategic picks for the VP. Democrats own Delaware. So, Biden won't get picked. Biden knows this. Hence, his eagerness to come out fighting.

DNC Winter Meeting Update

Here's the order of the speakers at the DNC's Winter Meeting(via Political Insider):

Friday, February 2
Sen. Christopher Dodd
Sen. Barack Obama
Gen. Wesley Clark
Former Sen. John Edwards
Rep. Dennis Kucinich
Sen. Hillary Clinton

Saturday, February 3
Sen. Joseph Biden
Gov. Bill Richardson
Former Sen. Mike Gravel

I am assuming these were posted int he order that thye will speak. If so, it's clear that they didn't pull the names out of a hat. They shamelessly gave Hillary the headliner spot. They're suffocating Obama and Edwards. Well, at least we know who the DNC is endorsing. We'll see who headlines next Winter?

Obama's Plan for Iraq

Obama's new Iraq legislatin is brilliant:

U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) today introduced binding and comprehensive legislation that not only reverses the President's dangerous and ill-conceived escalation of the Iraq war, but also sets a new course for U.S. policy that can bring a responsible end to the war and bring our troops home.

"Our troops have performed brilliantly in Iraq, but no amount of American soldiers can solve the political differences at the heart of somebody else's civil war," Obama said. "That's why I have introduced a plan to not only stop the escalation of this war, but begin a phased redeployment that can pressure the Iraqis to finally reach a political settlement and reduce the violence."

The Obama plan offers a responsible yet effective alternative to the President's failed policy of escalation. Realizing there can be no military solution in Iraq, it focuses instead on reaching a political solution in Iraq, protecting our interests in the region, and bringing this war to a responsible end. The legislation commences redeployment of U.S. forces no later than May 1, 2007 with the goal of removing all combat brigades from Iraq by March 31, 2008, a date that is consistent with the expectation of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group.

This is wonderful, concise plan that does not ask too much of either party and seems to bring the troops home in a responsible way that has a chance to minimze the chaos that Iaquick redeployment might have. This is a wonderful move from Obama, one that does nothing but help put to rest the so-called experience question on foreign policy. Out of all the people in Congress, this is the best plan I have heard from anyone. How's that for experience?

Here's some video:

Obama at Lincoln's Capitol

Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois

Lynn Sweet at the Chicago Sun-Times is reporting that Obama will offically announce on Feb. 10 at the Old State Capital:

"That will unleash the Barack Obama as Abe Lincoln narrative. Lincoln delivered his "House divided" speech at that historic spot and the announcement is on Lincoln's birthday weekend. Obama is expected to vault over to Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation 2008 caucus, after the announcement. "

This is going to give Obama some major media attention over that weekend. It is a perfect oppurtunity to pair himself with one of America's greatest figures. Also, there are deeper meanings to the location that help Obama politically. The Old State Capitol is where Lincoln gave his famous "A House Divided" speech, which will be one of Obama's campaign narratives. Also, Lincoln used several rooms in the Capitol for his own Presidential campaign. This is a historic and symbolic announcement and deserves all the attention it will get.

(Tip to Run Obama)

DNC Cattle-Call

This weekend is the DNC's winter meeting. This is when we will get to see all of the presidential candidates. Here is the list of candidates that will be attending(via Politico's Ben Smith:

Sen. Joe Biden
Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.)
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton
Sen. Chris Dodd
Sen. John Edwards
Sen. Mike Gravel
Rep. Dennis Kucinich
Sen. Barack Obama
Gov. Bill Richardson
Gov. Tom Vilsack

One name that sticks out at me right away is Wesley Clark. I knew he was supposed to announce a run, but I am yet to hear anything official. I guess his plan is to do it by the end of the week.
Anyway, all of the candidates will speak--some Saturday night ans some on Sunday. As far as I know the order has not been announced, but I am assuming that the event will be covered on C-SPAN. Unless, of course, they are closed door meetings.
Oh yea, if you're wondering who Mike Gravel is, don't worry its not a name you'll need to know.

I'll update the speaking times if and when I find them out.

Ohio Poll

Quinnipiac University has wasted no time polling. Here is the first Ohio poll that I have seen:

Clinton 38
Obama 13
Edwards 11
Al Gore 6

From Quinnipiac:

Sen. Clinton has by far the largest bloc of voters who don't like her, with a 49 - 38 percent favorability. By comparison, Obama's favorability is 35 - 12 percent, but 52 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Edwards gets a 46 - 24 percent favorability.

This pretty much follows the trend I've been seeing everywhere else. Hillary is hovering right around 40, but she has high unfavorables. Obama is still in second even with extrmely poor name ID, and Edwards is still very much in the coversation.
However, the Al Gore numbers surprise me. I suppose that the polling firm is asking about him. How else could he get that number? This is just further evidence that if Gore does decide to get in then it will totally reshape the race.

I know Ohio is not important in the primaries but I suspect it will be important in the general again. Quinnipiac polled possible general pairings. Clinton beats all the republicans: McCain, Guiliani, and Romney. Edwards beats McCain. Obama loses to McCain. Go to the site for the numbers.

New Hampshire Polls

I concede that these polls are mostly meaningless at this point, but they do tell us something about how people are currently looking at the race.

Survey USA(New Hampshire)
Clinton 40%
Obama 25%
Edwards 23%
Other(s) 9%

So, what do these numbers tell us?
They tell us that this is still a three-way race. Another thing to remember is that the amount of people who know Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have to be off the charts. Whereas, Obama's name ID has been hovering at around 50%. Now, New Hampshire voters pride themselves on being knowledgable about presidential campaigns. So, I would say Obama's name ID is probably slightly higher in NH then in most states. So, there is still an upside for Obama in this poll, especially since he hasn't even offically announced.

There is denying that this poll is good news for Hillary, but it is not entirely bad news for Obama. The thing for Edwards to take away from this poll is that he is still in the conversation and has not yet been grouped in with the "other(s)" category.

Obama and Bobby Kennedy

Tucked at the bottom of a piece in the Mail and Guardian about Hillary's Iowa trip was this:

As she flew into Iowa, the man who might yet top her was slumped asleep in economy class on a flight from Washington to Chicago, travelling home after a week in the Senate. By Obama's side was a biography of a Democrat with the same ability to rouse crowds with passionate speeches, Robert Kennedy.

What was remarkable was not just that he was travelling economy -- but that the man with a chance of becoming US president had no entourage with him. No aides, no press secretaries: just another Joe going home. It was a powerful image, one Clinton needs to worry about.

There is a part of me that hates to admit how taken I am with Obama. I desperately want to stay neutral in this primary race, but it is very difficult. I am immeasurably excited about Obama's potential.

I remember seeing old clips of Bobby Kennedy speak when I was a boy and he represented such an emotional force to me. Bobby Kennedy seemed to reflect something about the American soul in 1968, and huge crowds of people responded to that reflection. Maybe that is little more than documentary narration speaking through the lens of history, but those scenes seemed genuinely uplifting to me.

Kennedy was, and still is the standard to which I hold all politicians. I want to believe that Obama will manifest all that promise and all that hope that his supporters believe that he represents. I want to believe that Obama reflects the American soul in 2008. I won't be cynical about it. I want to believe.
And I will continue to believe--unless he proves me wrong.

(Tip to John R. Bohrer)

McCain is Sinking Fast

This from Rasmussen Reports(tip to Kos):

Support for McCain has been declining recently. Data released last week showed the Arizona Senator trailing Barack Obama (D) and John Edwards (D) in general election match-ups for the first time. Prior to that time, McCain had been ahead of every Democrat in our general election polls.

McCain is now viewed favorably by just 52% of American voters. That's down from 56% earlier this month and from 59% in December. His vocal advocacy of increased troop strength in Iraq may be having a negative impact on his popularity. Just one-third of voters (34%) share McCain's view while 56% want to go in the opposite direction and reduce the number of troops in Iraq. However, 94% think the troops will still be fighting in Iraq when the next President takes office.

I have commented in the past that the Republican nominee, no matter who, will be wearing the concrete boots of Bush in 2008. I still believe this is true for all of the candidates but John McCain has inexplicably made his road even more difficult. It is now clear that John McCain has permanently attached himself to the failures of the Iraq war. This is his escalation and no matter how he tries he will not be able to escape it. Getting this meme out into the public consciousness is thanks to many democrats, but specifically to John Edwards, who early on dubbed the escalation, "The McCain Doctine." Somehow even if Edwards' language hasn't stuck, the idea has. This is now Bush and McCain's war, and it will tar the entire Republican party in 2008.

SEIU Meets with Dem Candidates

SEIU is the country's largest and arguably the most influential union in the country right now. The union will probably endorse a candidate some time in the fall, but they have already started meeting with candidates.

According to Hotline, the union met with Obama, Clinton, Edwards, and Biden last Friday. It sounds like Obama made the best impression on the group. Clinton and Edwards also had good showings, both talking up broader health care initiatives. Apparently, though, Biden couldn't shut up. They thought he talked too much.

This would be an enormous boost if Obama were to get the SEIU endorsement. It would mean momentum and media attention in a time of year when everyone is fighting for positive media buzz. It will also give a candidate much needed financial support and a massive street organization, which means a lot in Iowa. However, SEIU is not a kingmaker. Howard Dean won their endorsement in the 2004 primary.

The Roots of a Smear

The Obama madrassah story has taken on a new life as a series of articles and news reports attempt to find out where the smear came from.

The NY Times has a piece on how Insight, a website where the smear began, was able to get the media to pick up their story. You might be shocked to hear that Insight's sister conservative publication, The Washington Times, wouldn't print the dubious report(Drudge wouldn't even touch it). So, Insight's senior editor just sent an e-mail to another conservative smear outfit, Fox News Channel. And what do you know? They ran with it.

The article should put to question anything that comes from the Insight website and the Fox News Channel in the future, and hopefully this story puts conservative pundits on notice that they can no longer shovel their garbage at the media and expect them to eat it up. Perhaps the media has learned a thing or two about reporting on non-stories with dubious sources during the swiftboating of John Kerry.

This from a NY Times article about the smear:

John Moody, a senior vice president at Fox News, said its commentators had erred by citing the Clinton-Obama report. "The hosts violated one of our general rules, which is know what you are talking about," Mr. Moody said. "They reported information from a publication whose accuracy we didn't know."

I think the commentators on "Fox and Friends," and John Gibson owe the American people an apology, and if not then they owe us their resignations.

Also read, "The Anatomy of a False Story" over at The Chicago Tribune.
(Tip to Obamarama)

Has Obama "Officially" Announced for '08?

I googled "Barack Obama" today and discovered something pretty interesting. If you look at the screenshot I took of the title that comes up with his home page it says, "barack obama officially announces candidacy for president." Here it is:

Remember that this is from his home page, the page of his supposed Presidential Exploratory Committee.

It's probably nothing. I just found it interesting since he hasn't technically announced, yet.

Rahm Emanuel to Endorse Hlllary?

This, according to consrvative columnist Robert Novak:

Sources close to Sen. Barack Obama are sure that Rep. Rahm Emanuel will not support his fellow Illinois Democrat for the Presidential nomination but will back Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

If so, Emanuel would be the only prominent Democratic officeholder in Illinois not for Obama. As a senior White House aide, Emanuel was one of President Bill Clinton's favorites. Emanuel has been close to both of the Clintons.

Rahm had been sitting on the fence on who he might endorse, even joking that he would spend a lot of time hiding under his desk to avoid the pressure of endorsing a candidate. I don't understand why he wouldn't stay on the fence a little longer. I guess I am a little confused at why anyone feels compelled to endorse this early. I know if I were being asked to endorse a candidate I would tell everyone to calm down for a few months and see how everyone does on the campaign trail for a few months.

I know Hillary is eager to envelop herself in an air of inevitability, but she is not gaffe proof.

Bobby Rush Endorses Obama

From Political Wire:

According to CBS News, Rep. Bobby Rush (D-IL), who successfully defended his seat against a primary challenge from Barack Obama in 2000, has announced he will support the Illinois Senator in his presidential bid.

Rush called it "one of the most difficult decisions that I've had to make in politics." He is also a longtime friend of another presidential candidate, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY).

This is another important and impressive endorsement for Obama. It must have been difficult for Rush to endorse a man who challenged him for his seat in a primary only a few years ago, but Rush came through in the end.

Also, Rush is an important figure in the black community. He was a prominent member of the Illinois' Black Panthers in the 60's, and he is clearly a man that will fight for his convictions. He was arrested in 2004 for protesting human rights violations by the Sudanese government.
Bobby Rush is a guy you want on your side.

Obama at Harvard

Today's NY Times has a piece about Obama's Harvard Law School days:

"He arrived there as an unknown, Afro-wearing community organizer who had spent years searching for his identity; by the time he left, he had his first national news media exposure, a book contract and a shot of confidence from running the most powerful legal journal in the country.

As the ribbing in the Revue suggests, Mr. Obama was realizing the power of his own biography. He proved deft at navigating an institution scorched with ideological battles, many of which revolved around race. He developed a leadership style based more on furthering consensus than on imposing his own ideas. Surrounded by students who enjoyed the sound of their own voices, Mr. Obama cast himself as an eager listener, sometimes giving warring classmates the impression that he agreed with all of them at once."

The article gives you a mixed impression of Obama. It portrays him as a consensus builder by acting the part of the chameleon, which is fine as editor of the Harvard Law Review but won't win you a national party's primary. One of the major themes that seem to be developing in these biography articles, and in the media in general, is that Obama is an eloquent speaker but his words carry little substance. Although I think this is ridiculous, Obama still needs to nip it in the bud by taking clear positions on issues like he did last week with universal health care.

The Edwards Campaign and Energy Action

I haven't been giving a lot of credit to John Edwards on this blog, but his campaign is doing things differently then any other campaign I have seen. They are seriously asking people to get involved in politics in a more profound way then candidates traditionally have in the past.
For example, his campaign is having a day of energy action tomorrow. I recommend that everyone visit his site and take action to save energy in your own lives.
Don't think that the Edwards family is all talk on this issue. Here is a large clip from an Elizabeth Edwards entry on the subject:

Here is what our family has done and is doing.

We sold the conventional fuel SUV that we used to carry children, strollers, luggage and toys between Washington, DC and North Carolina, and we bought a hybrid, a Ford Escape.

Since we were building a home in Orange County, we decided to take advantage of some of the technology that President Carter had encouraged.

All the water (all of which comes from wells) in our home and some of the flooring is heated with solar energy.

We built a highly energy efficient house. In fact, our home is Energy-Star rated. Energy Star is an EPA regulated designation for homes that are at least 30 percent more efficient than the national Model Energy Code. In building we made sure we had effective insulation in floors, walls, and attics. We chose efficient heating and cooling equipment and high-performance windows. Our builder paid close attention to making sure the construction was tight to seal out drafts and moisture. The day the independent inspector came to evaluate the house, we were on pins and needles while he tested our home's energy performance. As he packed his equipment, he gave us the good news: we are an Energy-Star home!

We recycle, of course, although just yesterday we got our Orange County recycle bin. Until then we used the recycle facility just down the road. (The trash compactor I debated putting in is really useful for compacting cans and plastic, it turns out.)

And as the incandescent light bulbs the electrician installed in our fixtures burn out, we are replacing them with fluorescent bulbs. If you are thinking that we are living now in harsh light, with buzzing sounds and constant flickers, you are thinking of your grandmother's fluorescent bulbs. There are a wide range of shapes and fittings available now; there are even dimmable fluorescents, and honestly I cannot tell without checking which of our bulbs are still incandescent and which are now - and will continue to be -- fluorescent. Switching is a little bit of a bite, because the bulbs are more expensive (although Costco and eBay have some good prices), but replacing a single 60 watt incandescent with a 15 watt fluorescent you use just six hours a day could see an energy savings of more than $40 over the 4 year (4 year!) life of the bulb. And it is not just energy. A single fluorescent bulb "can prevent more than 450 pounds of emissions from a power plant over its lifetime" according to the Energy-Star website. That same site has these incredible statistics: "If every American home replaced just one light bulb with an ENERGY STAR, we would save enough energy to light more than 2.5 million homes for a year and prevent greenhouse gases equivalent to the emissions of nearly 800,000 cars." One bulb.

The Edwards campaign and the Edwards family are serious about these issues. They clearly are putting their money where their mouths are, and the great thing about their campaign is that they are asking you to do the same.

Hillary's First Iowa Town Hall

AP Photo/Charlie Nebergall

Just a quick note on Hillary's town hall meeting in Des Moines, Iowa. It was a very well put together event to kick off Hillary's campaign in Iowa. She did a good job of answering questions, though I thought she could have been accused of filibustering a bit. She went on overlong answering several questions. Also, she needs to come up with a better answer to defend her Iraq vote then to say, "There are no do-overs in life." Overall, though I thought she was a much improved public speaker then when I had seen her in the past. I had heard she was going to go to a speaking coach, and it seems to have worked for her.

She came into the meeting to Jesus Jones' 'Right Here, Right Now'.
She left to Bachman-Turner-Overdrive's 'You Just Ain't seen nothing Yet'.
We'll see.

Democrats in Position for '08

New Newsweek Poll:

"With about half (48 percent) of voters nationwide saying their opinion of Bush will be at least "somewhat important" in determining who gets their vote in '08, the two Democratic frontrunners have narrow leads over their potential opponents. In a mock election, Clinton tops McCain by six points (50-44 percent) and barely edges out Giuliani by three (49-46 percent). Obama's lead over both McCain and Giuliani is by the exact same margins (48-42 percent against the former and 47-44 percent against the latter). The races are tighter with Edwards as the Democratic candidate: the former vice presidential candidate edges out McCain by four points (48-44 percent) and is in a statistical dead heat with Giuliani (46-47 percent)."

Oh, and Bush at 30%--his lowest ever for this poll. This provides further evidence that the Republican nominee is doomed to wear the concrete boots of Bush's tenure. They are already sinking from the weight.

Clinton in Iowa

Washington Post on Clinton going to Iowa while still lagging in the polls:

"That puts Clinton in the unusual position of having to prove herself against other Democrats, and having to build up a political infrastructure in Iowa at a time when many rivals already have a head start. Her appearances here -- her first in more than three years -- are certain to start a media frenzy, potentially intruding on the direct access to candidates that caucus-goers have come to expect.

"There are many reasons why Clinton may meet resistance in Iowa. An obvious one is her vote for the 2002 congressional resolution authorizing President Bush to go to war in Iraq. Although she has increasingly become a harsh critic of the administration, her long support for the conflict -- and her refusal to renounce her vote -- has left a sour taste among some liberal Democrats."

There are two points here. The first point is that she is trailing some of her other candidates in building an infrastructure, and since she has been largely ignoring Iowa to this stage, this point is accurate. However, we are still a year out from the Iowa vote and that is more then enough time to make up for falling behind. Hillary would still be in great position to win Iowa if it weren't for the second point.

She voted for the war. Technically, she voted for the resolution that would give Bush leverage to go to war when he went before the UN's security council, but that doesn't sell in easily accessible media bites. So, she voted for the war. Don't think for one minute that all the other candidates won't be reminding Iowans that she is partly responsible for our continued mess in Iraq. There are two people who benefit from this debate.

Edwards' benefit is marginal. He actually voted for the resolution as well. However, he did publicly apologize for it, which is a very respectable move in the midwest. Also, he has been highly critical of the war since his 2004 race for the White House, but none of this changes the fact that he voted for the war. It just softens the hit he will take for the vote.

Obama benefits the most from the war debate. It is true that he has not been as critical recently of the war as Edwards has, but he was critical when it counted. He clearly and forcefully opposed the war, which was not an easy thing for a politician to do in the winter of 2003.

So, Obama is in the best postiion to show himself to be the true anti-war candidate, but he can't be afraid to constantly and consistently remind voters of his opposition and of others' support of the war. Is it negative politics? Yes. Is it the truth? Yes.

It is true what they say: sometimes the truth hurts. In this case, the truth hurts Hillary in Iowa, and Edwards will propbably get dinged up a little a long the way as well.

Wes Clark, Again?

From Hotline:

A Clark adviser says the '04 candidate is "leaning towards setting up an exploratory then taking some time to explore." Clark accepted an invitation to speak at next weekend's DNC winter meeting in DC, along with the rest of the Democratic field. In addition, a major Democratic donor said that Clark has begun to make telephone calls to party donors."

I have never understood the fascination some people seem to have with Clark. It is impossible for me to see him as the candidate, and I can't imagine how his getting in registers anything other than a yawn from donors and primary voters.

Early Primary Analysis

Chris Bowers over at at MyDD has some early analysis of how the primaries might unfold. I highly recommend reading the whole piece, but I would like to focus on a few points.

Bowers doesn't seem to think that any candidate has a secure voting bloc, meaning no one is so popular in a particular demographic that it would help them survive if they were to have problems gaining delegates in early states. I think there are all kinds of problems with this assumption. I don't disagree that the absence of voting blocs is a problem. It is. My issue is with the premise that no one has a bloc. I know, Chris is looking at the future of the primaries through the lens of present-day, and it is true that there is no clear indication of voting blocs, yet. Still, I think it is crazy not to think that Hillary won't outpoll all the other candidates with women. That only seems logical. You also have to use the same logic when considering Obama's eventual support among blacks. Certainly these groups do not operate as a monolith, but it would be foolish to think that under such historical circumstances that these groups won't gravitate toward the candidate that best represents their group.

Also, Bowers' believes that Edwards must win Iowa to remain a viable candidate. I don't think there is any question about that, but I think that Bowers' view of Edwards' strength in Iowa is misinformed. I actually think, from the polls I've seen, much of the support for Edwards is soft, and is likely to move. My feeling is that both Hillary and Obama will split the soft vote with Edwards, and when this happens I believe that Obama could take the lead for good. I'm not even sure Edwards takes second. If he finishes third or lower, he will probably have to do what Gephardt did in '04 and bow out right after Iowa. Edwards' campaign is completely dependent on success in Iowa.

Obama doesn't have to win Iowa, but I think he needs to finish in the top two. However, I think he will win, and if he takes Iowa then he will quickly be taken seriously by the so-called uncommitted black voters. An Iowa win will also give him serious momentum going into New Hampshire, where he will probably finish one or two. This gives him both serious media credibility and secures his voting bloc that could ultimately give him the nomination.

Of course, specuation of this sort a year before a single vote is cast is an equation made up of unknown variables. Either way, it will be fun to come back next year and read these posts.

Sharpton Throwing his Weight Around

(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

It looks like Sharpton is trying hard to make himself relevent in the 2008 campaign. Lucky for us his influence has been reduced to dangling his endorsement instead of running for president. However, that could change. He says he will decide whether to run or not this Spring.
The NY Times reports that Sharpton made a trek to the capitol to meet with some of the presidential contenders:

One purpose of the visit, two New York advisers and confidants of Mr. Sharpton said, was to send a signal to Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois and a fellow African-American, that he should not take for granted the political support of Mr. Sharpton, a power broker in New York politics and a presidential candidate in 2004.

If you read the Times piece in its entirety you'll see that Sharpton is leaning toward Clinton. He clearly feels that he will have more influence over her then he will Obama. This is largely due to the fact that Clinton is in desperate need of garnering more black support with Obama in the race. Also, Sharpton can throw his weight around with Clinton during the campaign because she is his Senator. He might have her ear about legislation that directly affects his interests. So, there would be no real surprise if he were to endorse her.
That all being said, I still believe that Obama gaining Jesse Jackson's endorsement trumps a Sharpton endorsement.

Who Gets Kerry's Old Donors?

Now, that Kerry has officially removed himself from the presidential campaign, the race is on for his donors. TPM's Election Central has an update on one of those donors:

"Barack Obama has just landed one of John Kerry's most important fundraisers: Mark Gorenberg, a California-based venture capitalist who's a top fundraiser for the Democratic Party, a source has confirmed to Election Central.

"Gorenberg is a heavyweight in fundraising circles who's helped turn San Francisco into a major fundraising source for Democrats. He was a leading fundraiser for Kerry in 2004 as his California finance chair, and also raised more than $1 million for 27 Dem House candidates in 2006, according to the Connecticut Post."

This is on top of the fact that the NY Times reported last weekend that Obama has also grabbed New York billionaire George Soros.

Update: Ben Smith over at The Politico says:

"Barack Obama locked up the support of one of the few of the (historically) big-shot New York fundraisers today, with Orin Kramer, a private equity man who's sat on a number of government commissions and, long ago, worked in the Carter White House, offering his support to the campaign."

It looks like Sen. Obama is getting a bunch of New York money on his side at the expense of that one New York Senator, what was her name?

Obama Campaign Grows In Iowa and NH

According to local papers, the Obama staff in Iowa and New Hampshire are both growing.

From the Union Leader in NH:

State Obama adviser Jim Demers says he has forwarded at least 75 resumes from throughout the country to Obama headquarters. "I expect the Obama campaign will have additional New Hampshire staff hired by next week," he said. Last week, we reported the hiring of Matt Rodriguez as his state campaign manager.

And in Iowa Obama has added two new names ot his leadership team:

Paul Tewes, State Director

Paul is a native of southern Minnesota. He was the Caucus Manager for Al Gore's Iowa campaign in 2000. He then worked for the DSCC from 2001-2004 where he was Political Director for two years. In 2005, he ran the national campaign against Social Security privatization.

Emily Parcell, Political Director

Emily Parcell is a native Iowan with extensive experience in Iowa Democratic politics. A veteran of the 2002 re-election campaign of Sen. Tom Harkin and the 2004 Iowa Caucus campaign of Rep. Dick Gephardt, Parcell successfully managed the Iowa Senate Democrats' political operation during the 2004 and 2006 elections in which Democrats picked up a net gain of nine seats and took control of the Iowa Senate for the first time since 1996.

So, in case you needed more evidence that Obama will move his exploratory committee into a full fledged candidacy, well, there it is. Why pay the salaries if they're not going to work?

Hillary's Negatives are Obama's Positives

From Time:

Despite the buzz generated by Senator Barack Obama entering the race, the survey found that Senator Clinton would beat him for the Democratic nomination by a margin of 40% to 21%. Senator John Edwards is a distant third with 11%. Obama clearly suffers a disadvantage in profile among likely voters, with only 51% indicating that they knew enough about him to form an opinion, compared with 94% saying the same of Hillary Clinton. In Obama's favor, however, is his far lower negative ratings. While 58% of voters familiar with Hillary Clinton have a positive view of her, 41% give her negative marks, for a net favorability score of +17. By contrast, Obama's net favorability score is +47.

I have been arguing for a long time that Obama could be the beneficiary of Clinton's high negatives. It is also in his favor that so few people know who he is. Of course this is a double edged sword since so many people could have their opinion of him shaped by conservative smears like the ones we've seen recently. However, he also has a much better chance of gaining positive support then Hillary does. Those who dislike Sen. Clinton, strongly dislike her. It will be harder for her to turn negatives into posiives then it will be for Obama to turn unknowns into positives.

Edwards on Kerry

John Edwards on John Kerry's decision not to run:

"Elizabeth and I know John's decision not to run for president in 2008 is a difficult one, because we know his first instinct is always to respond to any call to serve his country. He and Teresa have our very best wishes as they concentrate on other ways to continue the exemplary service that has improved the lives of so many in so many ways."

I Got A Fever. A Fever For More Gore.

Illustration by Victor Juhasz

Rolling Stone has a new piece exploring the possibility that the Democrats don't have a better candidate than Al Gore:

A stiff Vice President campaigns on his administration's legacy of unprecedented prosperity. Looks terrible on TV. Bows out, following a disputed vote count. Then, two terms later, with no incumbent in the race, he re-enters the fray. Promises to change the course of a disastrous war founded on lies. And charges to victory. I'm referring, of course, to the 1968 campaign of Richard Milhous Nixon. But four decades later, history has a chance to repeat itself for Albert Arnold Gore.

If the Democrats were going to sit down and construct the perfect candidate for 2008, they'd be hard-pressed to improve on Gore. Unlike Hillary Clinton, he has no controversial vote on Iraq to defend. Unlike Barack Obama and John Edwards, he has extensive experience in both the Senate and the White House. He has put aside his wooden, policy-wonk demeanor to emerge as the Bush administration's most eloquent critic. And thanks to An Inconvenient Truth, Gore is not only the most impassioned leader on the most urgent crisis facing the planet, he's also a Hollywood celebrity, the star of the third-highest-grossing documentary of all time.

Right now, it is clear that I am going to vote for the Democratic candidate, whomever that ends up being. I am leaning in the Obama direction at the moment. I like both Edwards and Clinton and would happily support either one in the general election, and both could still sway me in the primaries.

All that being said, if Gore got in, well, all bets are off. Gore's my guy. No questions asked.

I have been a huge fan of Gore since he ran in '88. I was a twelve year old political junkie even then. You can imagine how excited I was when Bill Clinton picked Gore as his running mate in'92, and I was crushed over the national scandal that was the 2000 "election." Needless to say, I throw up a little in my mouth whenever I consider the consequences of how the nation was cheated into the Bush Presidency.

Do I think he'll run? I don't think he knows, yet. However, I do think he is ready to do it and could construct the mechanism for a national camaign over the course of a single weekend. I think, we'll know by the end of summer what his intentions are, and I think his decision will have much to do with how Hillary and Obama handle themselves over the next six months.

But for those of you who are expecting Gore to annouce as he accepts his Oscar for Best Documentary, well, you can forget it. He'll win the Oscar but he won't announce.

The Hollywood Primary

(Courtesy ABC)

Looks like Obama is headed for some big time Hollywood money:

Movie moguls Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg want their Hollywood peers to join them at a Feb. 20 fundraiser the three are throwing for Obama.

For $2,300 a person and $4600 a couple, they can meet the candidate at a reception at the Beverly Hilton Hotel, from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. Those who commit to raising $46,000 (10 couples/20 tickets) for the evening will be invited to a private dinner at Geffen's Malibu, Calif., home.

The fundraiser represents a major slap for Obama's main competitor, Sen. Hillary Clinton, who has received financial support from all three moguls in the past. Their company, Dreamworks SKG, has contributed $47,000 to Clinton since her 2000 New York Senate campaign.

In the past, Democrats have murmurred about a so-called Hollywood primary. This pseudo-primary is almost entirely monetary based and it is extremely important, especially since it is becoming more and more clear that public financing of presidential campaigns is all but dead. So, I think the Hollywood primary is crucial for Obama to win. This would add some much needed cash and media chatter to the Obama campaign, and knowing that Hillary will have enough of both to bury most of her competitors, it could be the difference maker.

Obama sets the record straight

Obama and his campaign released a statement today that sends a powerful message to right-wing media types and their tactics:

In the past week, many of you have read a now thoroughly-debunked story by Insight Magazine, owned by the Washington Times, which cites unnamed sources close to a political campaign that claim Senator Obama was enrolled for "at least four years" in an Indonesian "Madrassa". The article says the "sources" believe the Madrassa was "espousing Wahhabism," a form of radical Islam.
Insight Magazine published these allegations without a single named source, and without doing any independent reporting to confirm or deny the allegations. Fox News quickly parroted the charges, and Fox and Friends host Steve Doocy went so far as to ask, "Why didn't anybody ever mention that that man right there was raised-- spent the first decade of his life, raised by his Muslim father -- as a Muslim and was educated in a Madrassa?"

All of the claims about Senator Obama raised in the Insight Magazine piece were thoroughly debunked by CNN, which, instead of relying on unnamed sources, sent a reporter to Obama's former school in Jakarta to check the facts.

If Doocy or the staff at Fox and Friends had taken [time] to check their facts, or simply made a call to his office, they would have learned that Senator Obama was not educated in a Madrassa, was not raised as a Muslim, and was not raised by his father-- an atheist Obama met once in his life before he died.

Later in the day, Fox News host John Gibson again discussed the Insight Magazine story without any attempt to independently confirm the charges.

All of the claims about Senator Obama's faith and education raised in the Insight Magazine story and repeated on Fox News are false. Senator Obama was raised in a secular household in Indonesia by his stepfather and mother. Obama's stepfather worked for a U.S. oil company, and sent his stepson to two years of Catholic school, as well as two years of public school. As Obama described it, "Without the money to go to the international school that most expatriate children attended, I went to local Indonesian schools and ran the streets with the children of farmers, servants, tailors, and clerks." [The Audacity of Hope, p. 274]

To be clear, Senator Obama has never been a Muslim, was not raised a Muslim, and is a committed Christian who attends the United Church of Christ in Chicago. Furthermore, the Indonesian school Obama attended in Jakarta is a public school that is not and never has been a Madrassa.

These malicious, irresponsible charges are precisely the kind of politics the American people have grown tired of, and that Senator Obama is trying to change by focusing on bringing people together to solve our common problems.

This is a great move on Obama's part. My only concern is that this statement was a few days later than I would have hoped. That being said, it certainly is a strong statement and sets a tone for the kind of reaction these smears will receive in the future.
(Thanks to Greg Sargent)

John Kerry's Not Running

It looks like Sen. John Kerry finally got the hint that almost no one wanted him to run. It is a good thing for him to continue his role he Senate. He is good for democrats in the senate, and his name still carries a certain amount of gravity in national politics. It would have been embarassing to watch him get beat in the primaries, and he would have gotten creamed.

Obama Responds

Obama responded to the Indonesian madrassa fiction last night on CNN:

"You know, when I ran for the United States Senate, right after I won the primary, there were some political operatives that put up a web site that superimposed my face over bin Laden. And you know, full with the beard and the turban. We ended up winning that race 70 percent to 30 percent. The American people are smarter than that. ... And so if I go ahead with the presidential race, what they're going to be listening for is a message of change, a message of leadership. If they think I've got a vision for the country that can help them secure a future for themselves and their children, then I think I'll do fine"

(via Hotline)

Fox News Smears Obama

I have intentionally not touched the bogus Obama/madrassa story because it was clearly ridiculous and needed as few repeats as possible. However, this story just keeps on keepin' on.

In case you hadn't heard about it, there was a story published in Insight magazine(published by the same conservative hacks that publish The Washington Times), that claimed that Obama was taught at a radical Islamic madrassa in Indonesia when he was 6. Fox News(who else?), then picked up the story and ran with it on their poor man's version of a morning show, Fox and Friends. They even silently wink-wink-nudge-nudged that Obama was (Gasp!)Muslim.

Anyway, CNN ran thier own story that clearly dismissed the charges as someone else's bad reporting. Anderson Cooper even implicitly smacked Fox News in the process:

"Well, that's the difference between talking about news and reporting it. You send a reporter, checks the facts and you decide at home."

(Thanks to Hotline for the quote.)

Even Wolf Blitzer got in a punch:

"CNN did what any serious news organization is supposed to do in this kind of a situation. We actually conducted an exclusive first-hand investigation inside Indonesia."

(Thanks to Obamarama for the quote.)

Here is the Fox News fiction(watch with caution):

Here is the CNN report:

The Magic vs. The Machine

The Austrailian and the Times UK both have stories where they say the primary race between Obama and Clinton is being called 'the magic vs. the machine.' I've been reading pieces about both Hillary and Obama for weeks and I have not seen that phrase expressed in the American press. The strange thing is that both of these pieces seem to use the same Terry McAulifee quotes over and over again. It makes me wonder if this is a McAuliffe invention, which would be strange considering his allegiance is with Clinton and the magic vs. machine meme is just awful for her. It only adds to the theory that she is too cold and calculating.
It is great for Obama, though. His campaign would be smart to pick it up and use it. And who knows, maybe his campaign is behind the whole thing.

Hillary's In

If you haven't already heard, Hillary Clinton announced the opening of an exploratory committee this morning on her website. Note to Hillary, though, if you say, "I'm in," then you are not opening an exporatory committee. You are running for President.
Secondly, someone should tell her that she should never again say,"let's chat." It's hokey and sounds moronic.

Other than that, it was a well done video, especially when compared to Obama's. I liked that they did not have one long, static shot, but they panned and cut to closer and then longer shots. The video was made for seamless, acessible viewing. It is just another example of how well put together Hillary's campaign is going to be.
One other item of note, if you thought she might run awa from health care becsuse of her disastrous effort in '93, well, she is not. And good for her. She is going right at any possible weaknesses she might have in her past.
It is only her first day, but her campaign seems as tight as everyone said it would be.

Update: Obama's statement on Hillary's announcement:

"Senator Clinton is a good friend and a colleague whom I greatly respect. I welcome her and all the candidates, not as competitors, but as allies in the work of getting our country back on track."

Race and the Presidency

There are going to be endless stories in the coming months about Obama's race. We've already been hearing that question for over a month: Is America ready for a black president? Well, John Mercurio weighs in on the subject over at the National Journal:

Ready or not, America has started dating Barack Obama, who came a-courtin' Tuesday when he said he's exploring a 2008 presidential bid and will announce his decision in the Land of Lincoln on Feb. 10. (Conveniently, that's just two days before Abraham Lincoln's birthday. It's no coincidence; get ready for a whole lot of Lincoln if Obama runs). It's a familiar dating phase, one previously endured to varied degrees of success by Howard Dean, Ross Perot, Gary Hart and Jimmy Carter, among others.

But voters' courtship with Obama will be decidedly unique and, yes, historic. No, he isn't the first black candidate for president. But his well-staffed campaign, if it comes close to meeting expectations, would force voters to engage in a real debate about the politics of race like nothing else has before. "Of course I'm not a racist," you can hear white voters saying, quietly. "But am I really comfortable electing a black man to run the country?"

It's a debate some prominent blacks don't believe the country is ready to have.

Also, on yesterday's(1/17/2007) HotlineTV video podcast, Mercurio stated that he believed white voters might say that they would vote for a black candidate, but that when it came time to vote, they might not go through with it.
How the race issue will play in the polls will not be revealed until the primary votes are cast and counted. However, no one gave Harold Ford a chance to garner much support for his senatorial bid in a southern state like Tennessee. He didn't win, but he did get 48% of the vote. If a black man can get 48% of the vote in a southern state then certainly we have to acknowledge that profound cultural changes have happened in this country to minimize the racial divide. Don't get me wrong, race is still a serious issue in this country, but I think this country has come far enough that a black man has a legitimate shot on the condition that he runs a special campaign.
Obama's campaign will have to be historically special to make history.

Obama vs. Hillary

Chuck Todd from the National Journal foresees a possible floor fight at the Democratic Convention for the nomination:

It's still a long time until next January's Iowa caucuses, but the formal entrances this week of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and (possibly) New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton should give rise to the notion that it's actually possible the Democratic nomination won't be settled by Feb. 6. In fact, there's a chance that the battle between these two superstars could go on to the convention.

It sounds unlikely, but Todd sets out a plausible scenario for this to happen. He is right that we are unaccustomed to seeing two heavyweights step up to the plate so early in a campaign. Often we see a heated match-up develop in the primaries, like Bush vs. McCain in 2000, but this is happening a full year before the first voter casts a ballot.
It's only going to get more interesting as time goes by.

Obama's Iraq Legislation

Today Sen. Obama released a statement about his upcoming legislation for a phased redeployment of troops from Iraq. Here is the statement in full:

"Throughout the war in Iraq, we have been given assurance after assurance by our government only to find out that facts on the ground reflect a completely different reality.

"Last week, after being told by President Bush that his plan to escalate this war would be well-planned, well-coordinated, and well-supported by the Iraqi government, we find out in this week's New York Times that none of this is true. Military officials tell us that there is no clear chain of command between Iraqis and U.S. commanders and no real indication that the Iraqis even want such a partnership.

"I cannot in good conscience support this plan. As I first said two months ago, we should not be sending more U.S. troops to Iraq, we should begin redeploying them to let the Iraqis know that we will not be there forever and to pressure the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds to finally reach a political settlement.

"Escalation is a failed policy opposed by generals, Democrats and Republicans, and now even the Iraqis themselves, and the fact that the President is already moving ahead with this idea is a terrible consequence of the decision to give him the broad, open-ended authority to wage this war in 2002.

"It now falls on Congress to find a way to support our troops in the field while still preventing the President from multiplying his previous mistakes. That is why I not only favor capping the number U.S. troops in Iraq, but believe it's imperative that we begin the phased redeployment I called for two months ago, and intend to introduce legislation that does just that."

Two points about this statement.
1. This is clearly a response to Sen. Clinton's statement from earlier this afternoon. Especially since he clearly references her plan to "cap" the number of troops in Iraq. He is one-upping her by also proposing the phased redeployment of troops.
2. The money quote from this statement is: "and the fact that the President is already moving ahead with this idea is a terrible consequence of the decision to give him the broad, open-ended authority to wage this war in 2002."
Wow! Really? Man, that is tough. He is letting Clinton and Edwards know that they are going to be paying for their support for the 2002 Iraq resolution every minute of this campaign. He is also showing that he will not hesitate to go after his toughest competitors in this campaign, and he did it early, which is good.
Listen, he is a good candidate and he has a good team and they have had a great first two days. They have a long way to go, but that statement, and the message it sends is a good sign.

E Pluribus Unum

Obama to Lincolnize Campaign

According to Political Wire Sen. Obama may formally announce his presidfency in Lincoln's hometown of Springfield, Illinois.

It would only be fitting for Obama to celebrate Lincoln, and since they are both from Illinois it is not a political stretch to make the connection.

Plus, Obama would be crazy not to capitalize on the image of one of our most popular presdents. There are several great reasons for Obama to constantly refer to Lincoln in his campaign:

1. The race issue. Many would say that if it weren't for Lincoln, we would not have a Barack Obama running for president.

2. The uniter angle. Lincoln fought hard to keep this country together during a civil war. Certainly we are not in a civil war, but the country is extremely divided. Obama has already made it clear that he is making it a priority to bridge these differences.

3. The experience factor. This from Political Wire:

"Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004 after spending eight years in Springfield in the Illinois General Assembly. Lincoln became the nation's 16th president and led America through the Civil War after a single term in Congress and eight years in the state Legislature.""Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004 after spending eight years in Springfield in the Illinois General Assembly. Lincoln became the nation's 16th president and led America through the Civil War after a single term in Congress and eight years in the state Legislature."

Obama Has Been Winning Me Over

On a personal level I feel that Obama's message offers to the country is one that we have been anxious to hear. He is making it clear that his goal is to unite a divided country, and I feel that he is our best hope to achieve that extremely difficult task. He brings passion and youth to a country that sorely needs some energy and new blood injected into the public consciousness, and his heritage is one that will speak to almost any American about what made this country great, and to the promise that can make us great again.
On individual issues, I am impressed with Sen. Obama's prescience in 2003 when it came to the Iraq war. He was passionately opposed to an invasion. Many of the other candidates that will run in this election were not so prescient and our country has paid an enormous cost for their blunder.
There will be a lot of talk in the coming year about Sen. Obama's supposed inexperience. He has, after all, not even completed his first term in the US Senate. However, he has been in the State legislature in Illinois since 1996. This gives him more legislative experience than either Sen. Clinton or John Edwards. Also, he is a constitutional scholar, who up until he was elected to US senate, still taught Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago. This is a man, for a change, who knows something about the rule of law in this country, and that alone should cause voters to carefully consider Obama when they look at the other candidates. His knowledge of the constitution will be made even more important these last few years as the Bush administration faces an ever-growing chorus of criticism for thier unconstitutional tactics. Who best to explain these issues then a former professer of Constitutional law? His perspective will be extremely valuable on these issues.
Also, he, like all of the other Democratic candidates, is going to make a strong case for changing the country's direction when it comes to carbon emissions. Sen. Obama is making it clear that he takes the climate crisis seriously and will make reducing our dependence on foreign oil a centerpiece issue in his campaign. Whoever is best at tying our energy dependence to the war on terror and can push alternative energy as good for business and a boost to the future of the American economy by energizing a stagnant blue-collar workforce will win the hearts of democrats and independents.
Sen. Obama's talk of an "empathy deficit" in the country will hit home with many democrats. It is an umbrella phrase that covers economic injustice, education gaps, and inequality in race, sex, and sexuality. I think this is a phrase we will be hearing a lot of this year.
From listening to him closely the last few months, it sounds to me that he has a powerful platform in place to launch a successful campaign for president. The question becomes what will he do with that platform, and can he successfully communicate his ability to realistically put his platform into practice if he were to be elected.

Obama's In

Watch Sen. Obama announce the launching of his Presidential Exploratory Committee from earlier this morning.