December 17, 2006
2008 Democratic Primary Update
Potential Democratic Candidates 2008 (11/14/2006)
*Key: Are they running/ %Chances of running
1st Tier (Candidates, in alphabetical order for each tier, who are currently in the best position to get the nomination)
Clinton Running/99%(I've changed this number from 80% because this is the number an anonymous Clinton insider gave to Newsweek this past week.)
Edwards Running/99%(He's done everything but officially announced and word is he will announce in 9th Ward of New Orleans)
Gore Toss-up/50%(Gore stays at 50%, and will remain at fifty until I hear a definitive yes or no directly from him.)
Obama Lean Run/90%(I'm moving Obama up because of an insider gave this number to Newsweek on his chances of running.)
2nd Tier (Candidates who are currently in a fair position to get the nomination)
Bayh Not Running/0%(Bayh will be moved off the list. Obama was just too hot for him to contend with.)
Biden Running/95%
Clark Lean Run/60%(i've heard almost no news about Clark, but I hear he will be getting in early this year. He felt he got in too late in 2004.)
Kerry Toss-up/50%(God knows what Kerry will do. Almost nobody wants him to run, and I think he should sit it out.)
3rd Tier (Candidates who are currently in a poor position to get the nomination)
Daschle Not Running/0%(Daschle's out and will be removed from the next list)
Dodd Toss-up/50%(haven't heard much about Dodd. I wouldn't be surprised either way.)
Kucinich Running 100%(This is the reason I need a thrid tier. Third tier candidates are candidates who have no shot. I think Vilsack and Kucinich both belong on that list.)
Richardson Lean Run/75%(After a trip to New Hapshire yesterday, I will bump him up to 75%. He will be second tier candidate on the next list.)
Vilsack Running/100%


