Books on the Kindle

I have felt for a long time now that e-book reading was going to represent the future of book reading. I always believed that the market was only waiting for a proper device and a big corporate player to get involved so that a high number of titles could be made available.

Amazon created a pretty good device with the first Kindle. My wife got one for Christmas this year, and I have read several books on it. It has been a nice overall reading experience for me. The text is easy on the eyes, and if adjustments are necessary it is easy to change the font size. You can download books quickly using Amazon's Whispernet service on your wi-fi connection, and you can sample the first chapter before you buy. It is a very convenient way to get a book in your hand quickly and begin reading immediately.

I've read some of the reviews of the Kindle 2.0, and it looks to be a slight improvement over the first version. Still, though, I have no reason to want to switch. Most of the improvements seem to be design oriented, which was necessary, but not enough reason for me to upgrade.

Amazon has also been the leader of getting publishers to make their books available in an e-format. It is common for new books to be made available on the Kindle, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for publishers not to make these books available since e-books are increasing their market share. E-books tripled their market share over 2008, and it looks like the numbers are rising higher still. According to the NYTimes, the market share of e-books from December 15 to January 15 was 3%. 3% doesn't sound like a lot, but when you consider it was 1% then you see that more and more people are growing comfortable with reading on their electronic device.

Now there is evidence that the Kindle is pushing the envelope even further by releasing their application on the iPhone/iPod Touch, and this opens up an entirely new market. And other companies are recognizing the shift that is taking place as well. Barnes and Noble just paid over 15 million dollars for FictionWise, one of the web's leading e-book sellers.

Now that Barnes and Noble and Amazon will both be pushing e-books, it will become extremely difficult for publishers to resist this new, alternate format.

For this reason, I will be publishing my first novel, "In the Satchel, On the Train, Selling Dreams to Nancy" on the Kindle's Digital Text Platform tomorrow.

Then, in the coming weeks, I will be publishing more of my material in the e-book format. So, more announcements will be forthcoming.

2008 Election Prediction

Popular Vote Prediction:
Obama: 51.8%
McCain: 46.1%
Other: 2.1%

However, if Obama's turnout mechanism really comes out in full force and his percentages exceed 53% then I think the map will look more like this:

Daily Tracking Average: 1 Day To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.5% (+0.5%)
McCain: 44.5% (NC)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 11/03/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 2 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.0% (-0.3%)
McCain: 44.5% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 11/02/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 3 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 51.3% (+0.8%)
McCain: 44.0% (NC)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 11/01/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 4 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.5% (+0.5%)
McCain: 44.0% (-0.3%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/31/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 5 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.0% (NC)
McCain: 44.3% (NC)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/30/2008.

Daily Tracking Average: 6 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.0% (-0.5%)
McCain: 44.3% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/29/2008.

My Take: One Week To Go

National Vote Prediction:
Obama: 51.8%
McCain: 46.6%

I obviously do not see the electoral math being very close right now. However, I do not think this will translate into a huge national victory. I see Obama winning right now with close to 52% of the vote. I see McCain getting slightly less than 47%. Then again, the polls have been closing toward McCain this week, and I think this is an indication of the way undecideds may be breaking. If national poll averages give Obama a less than 4% lead on election day then Obama voters should be nervous. We should not be overconfident.

Daily Tracking Average: 7 Days To Go

Daily Tracking Average*

Obama: 50.5% (-0.5%)
McCain: 43.8% (+0.5%)

* Average of Gallup(Likely Voters-Expanded), Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, and Rasmussen tracking polls released on 10/28/2008.